Estimates Procedure

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000200010015-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: MF

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DOCUMENT NO. - 15-
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. L7
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ASS. CI IANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT HEVtCW DATE:
AUTH'. HA 10-2
DATE. " REVIEWER: 372044
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: Estimates Procedure
REFERENCE: Memorandum for DDCI from DI, USAF, dated 30 August
1, We have carefully studied General Samford's "Estimate Pro-
cedure". We find it difficult to understand clearly what the dimen-
sions of his proposal are. It is a very concentrated piece of
prose, devoid of explanatory detail and of recommended action.
2, Any effort to contribute to the theory and practice of in-
telligence estimating is to be commended. Our own efforts to get
acceptance of terms which qualify the estimates - "almost certainly,
probably,
..," - are aimed at the apparent objective of this paper.
3. Nevertheless, in the field of intelligence, it is necessary
to make haste slowly. It is not enough that the intelligence
brotherhood agree to ascribe certain meanings to certain words. It
is also essential that these exact meanings be carried to the consumer.
The English language is too poor to place the burden of special mean-
ings on such words as "strengths" and "causes"; intelligence is often
too incomplete to provide action people with "direct measurerants
of the strengths which they must overcome or alter."
k. In the present state of the art, the writer (and the reader)
must rely heavily an the use of words in a given context.. It is
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the whole phrase, sentence, or paragraph which must carry the
meaning to our readers.
5. Finally, the formal adoption of such a schematic approach
could well hinder the application of intelligent judgment in the
estimating process. The tendency would be for those not as
familiar with the objectives of the scheme as is the author to
substitute form and procedure for thought. Mechanistic procedures
are useful and valid in certain situations, and advantageous in
terms of the limited supply of intelligent manpower. We doubt
whether the-production of as NIE will ever present such a situa-
tion.
6. Some parts of this proposal could well be given further
study within a program such as I have proposed to Mr. Baird as
a means for getting together a body of intelligence doctrine.
To this end we would welcome an opportunity to sit down with
General Samford to get clarification of his proposal.
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