Probable Consequences in France of the Fall of Dien Bien Phu

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79R00904A000200010035-0
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
2
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 24, 1998
Sequence Number: 
35
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 27, 1954
Content Type: 
MF
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79R00904A000200010035-0.pdf88.46 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2.001/08/C -RDP79R00904A0002010035-0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES 27 April 1954 DRAFT VEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE SUBJECT: probable Consequences in France of the Fall of Dien Bien Phu 1. No believe that the fail of Dien Bien Phu alone would not causb the collapse of the Laniel government or a radical change in French policy in Indo-China so long as the Geneva Conference offers came prospect of a settlement in Indo-China. However, it would re- duce the willingness of the Laniel government to continue the war. To French public and parliamentary opinion this military defeat would represent the failure of the Navarre Plan. It would strengthen the French belief that France cannot win in Indo-China, and it would in- crease parliamentary pressure upon the French government to reach an Indo-China settlement at Geneva. It would also reduce support for US policies in France, particularly if the Laniel government in its ex- planation of the military defeat should emphasize US refusal to provide air support for Dien Bien Phu and if the US stand at Geneva should appear intractable to the French. 2. Following the fall of Dien Bien Phu, we believe that the French government would announce that it was sending additional forces from France to IndoQhina, but that this announcement would be designed c, h' Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP74"f 4"00