Probable Consequences in France of the Fall of Dien Bien Phu

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000200010035-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: April 27, 1954
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2.001/08/C -RDP79R00904A0002010035-0
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
27 April 1954
DRAFT VEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: probable Consequences in France of the Fall of Dien Bien Phu
1. No believe that the fail of Dien Bien Phu alone would not
causb the collapse of the Laniel government or a radical change in
French policy in Indo-China so long as the Geneva Conference offers
came prospect of a settlement in Indo-China. However, it would re-
duce the willingness of the Laniel government to continue the war.
To French public and parliamentary opinion this military defeat would
represent the failure of the Navarre Plan. It would strengthen the
French belief that France cannot win in Indo-China, and it would in-
crease parliamentary pressure upon the French government to reach an
Indo-China settlement at Geneva. It would also reduce support for US
policies in France, particularly if the Laniel government in its ex-
planation of the military defeat should emphasize US refusal to provide
air support for Dien Bien Phu and if the US stand at Geneva should
appear intractable to the French.
2. Following the fall of Dien Bien Phu, we believe that the
French government would announce that it was sending additional forces
from France to IndoQhina, but that this announcement would be designed
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Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP74"f 4"00