VALIDITY OF PRESENT ESTIMATE ON HONG KONG (SNIE 13-3-57, "THE CHINESE COMMUNIST THREAT TO HONG KONG," DATED 19 NOVEMBER 1957)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 23, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 13, 2013
Sequence Number: 
19
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 7, 1958
Content Type: 
MEMO
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7.pdf79.22 KB
Body: 
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79ROO904AO00400030019-7 C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N CE A G E N C Y 7 October 1958 MEMORANDUM FOR THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD SUBJECT: Validity of Present Estimate on Hong Kong (SNIE 13-3-57, "The Chinese Communist Threat to Hong Kong" dated 19 November 1957) At the request of the Director the attached is circu- lated to members of the United States Intelligence Board for information, SHERMAN KENT Assistant Director National Estimates a?ouyft-wt -J NO CHM CE IN CLASS. p L1 X I)SCLASS@MsED SS. 0x ?izi a TC TS S C NExi kiATE: APR 1980 DATE: REVIEWER: 018645 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79ROO904AO00400030019-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7 w V C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y 7 October 1958 MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIREtTOR SUBJECT: Validity of Present Estimate on Hong Kong (SNIE 13-3-57, "The Chinese Communist Threat to Hong Kong," dated 19 November 1957) We have examined SNIE 13-3-57 and consider that its judgments still apply, in the main, despite the increase in Chinese Communist pressures against the Colony which has taken place since the estimate was produced. In SNIE 13-3-57 we did not consider the effects of possible developments in the Taiwan Strait on Chinese Communist policy toward Hong Kong. Peiping's recently increased harassments of Hong Kong are probably related to the Taiwan Strait situation in several ways. Chinese Communist pressures on the offshore islands and the harassment of Hong Kong both reflect the more general mood of assertiveness apparent in Communist China over the past six months or so. The harassment of Hong Kong is probably designed to caution the UK against support of the US position in the Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7 Taiwan Strait., in the event hostilities expand there. In view of Taiwan Strait developments we would somewhat soften the marked confidence of SNIE 13-3$7's estimates of November 1957 that the Chinese Communists would not attack Hong Kong or attempt to seize it from within "over the next three years" but we would continue to judge such actions to be unlikely during this period. FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES: SHERM,.N KENT Assistant Director National Estimates ZW Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7