VALIDITY OF PRESENT ESTIMATE ON HONG KONG (SNIE 13-3-57, "THE CHINESE COMMUNIST THREAT TO HONG KONG," DATED 19 NOVEMBER 1957)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2013
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: October 7, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79ROO904AO00400030019-7
C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N CE A G E N C Y
7 October 1958
MEMORANDUM FOR THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: Validity of Present Estimate on Hong Kong (SNIE 13-3-57,
"The Chinese Communist Threat to Hong Kong" dated
19 November 1957)
At the request of the Director the attached is circu-
lated to members of the United States Intelligence Board for
information,
SHERMAN KENT
Assistant Director
National Estimates
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NExi kiATE:
APR 1980
DATE: REVIEWER: 018645
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79ROO904AO00400030019-7
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
7 October 1958
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIREtTOR
SUBJECT: Validity of Present Estimate on Hong Kong (SNIE
13-3-57, "The Chinese Communist Threat to Hong Kong,"
dated 19 November 1957)
We have examined SNIE 13-3-57 and consider that its
judgments still apply, in the main, despite the increase in
Chinese Communist pressures against the Colony which has taken
place since the estimate was produced. In SNIE 13-3-57 we
did not consider the effects of possible developments in the
Taiwan Strait on Chinese Communist policy toward Hong Kong.
Peiping's recently increased harassments of Hong Kong are
probably related to the Taiwan Strait situation in several
ways. Chinese Communist pressures on the offshore islands and
the harassment of Hong Kong both reflect the more general mood
of assertiveness apparent in Communist China over the past six
months or so. The harassment of Hong Kong is probably designed
to caution the UK against support of the US position in the
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7
Taiwan Strait., in the event hostilities expand there. In view
of Taiwan Strait developments we would somewhat soften the
marked confidence of SNIE 13-3$7's estimates of November
1957 that the Chinese Communists would not attack Hong Kong
or attempt to seize it from within "over the next three
years" but we would continue to judge such actions to be
unlikely during this period.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
SHERM,.N KENT
Assistant Director
National Estimates
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030019-7