THE TURKISH SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000700030023-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: June 22, 1961
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/10/11: CIA-RDP79R00904A0G0700030023-
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
22 June 1961
1. Evidence on the power struggle in Turkey of recent weeks
is still incomplete and contradictory, but so far as we can judge,
the conflict has ranged the senior, conservative CNU generals
(including Chief of State Gursel) against the more radical junior
CNU members and most of the top military commanders.
faction apparently believes that the CNU, having taken on overall
civilian authority, should leave the administration of military
affairs to the active commanders. that began as a move by the
senior group to replace the Turkish Air Force Chief -- possibly
for sheer personal reasons -- soon developed into a broader struggle
over the CNU's relations with the military establishment. This in
turn appears to involve differF_nces over future political developments.
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2, The military commanders and the junior officers have
evidently won out so Par, though they have stopped short of
removing Gursel or overturning the CNUQ They have succeeded in
forcing out conservative General Madanoglu, who had been commander
of the Ankara military garrison and a leading spirit of the CNU.
All factions involved in the struggle have taken considerable pains
to emphasize their devotion'to the democratic process and their
determination to hold elections on schedule -- sometime before the
end of October. However, the recent developments may result in
postponement. There is reason to believe, that the junior CNU
members are more authoritarian in their outlook and less inclined
to risk a resumption of civil government. Additionally, the
military and the junior CNU tapes are more disposed to press for
stiff penalties, including execution of the principal defenders in
the Yassiada trials, an action which might cause popular distur-
bances requiring military suppression. The Republican Peoples Party
of Inonu has probably lost some ground as a result of these events,
since its chief supporter in the CNU was General Madanoglu.
3. These signs of strains and tensions among Turkey's leaders
appear at a time when a vital decision relating to the return of
government to civilian hands must be taken. A new constitution is
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scheduled to be placed before the voters in a referendum in
early July. While the fact that the referendum takes place is
no guarantee that elections will be held in October, it is a
necessary step toward them, If, however, the referendum, ~s
postponed, it will be an indication of a decision to prolong mili-
tary rule. The coming weeks should, therefore, clarify the pros-
pects of short time political developments in Turkey,
4. In the fields of foreign policy and economics, we see
little if any change from what was stated in the Board?s Memorandum
to you of 31 May 1961. The Turks will remain anti-Soviet and pro-
West although prolonged bickering or violent intra-service
rivalry within the mili.taiy would, of course, reduce the effec-
tiveness of the Turkish armed forces. The regime will probably
continue in the economic field to lay the groundwork for future
advances and to avoid the uncoorc?inated spending which characterized
the Menderes regime. The recent incidents have hardly affected
the economy in any basic way, though the added uncertainties at-
tendant on this will inhibit business activity already plagued
by stagnation since the junta took over in 1960.
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5v A new estim.te on Turkey is already scheduled for
completion in the Fourth Quarter, in response to a 1,41hite House
Staff request which called for eai-)hasis on assessing basic
economic trends in Turkey.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIOI :
SHERMAN KENT
Chairman
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CONFIDENT I