MOTIVES IN CHINESE COMMUNIST MILITARY BUILD-UP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000800030021-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: June 20, 1962
• Content Type: IM

Approved For Relea 2006/04/21 :CIA-RDP79 _ ,QD904AO00800030021
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
20 June 1962
6C I No. 1Copy No.
SUBJECT: Motives in Chinese Communist Military Build-up
it ~al/
1. We think it very, nlikely that the Soviets and the
Chinese Communists have /planned a coordinated action--or
even coordinated pressures--on Berlin and on Quemoy. The
relations between the two countries are not, in our opinion,
close enough at present to make this at all probable. Neither
do we think that the Soviets wish at this time to run the
risks involved in such an operation; indeed we believe that
they would be opposed to the Chinese independently under-
taking an attack on Quemoy. If the Chinese Communists launched
such an attack or created a situation of sharp crisis in the
area, we believe the Soviets would consider that any drastic
increase of pressures in Berlin would involve an undesirable
heightening of risks.
2. If the Chinese Communists attack Quemoy, or openly
threaten to attack it, and conduct an appropriate propaganda
campaign at home and abroad, we believe that one of their
motives would be to divert their people and to secure a meas-
ure of patriotic support for the government. Such a diver-
sion would be unprofitable, however, unless the enterprise
were successful, and (because of Chinese Communist economic
weaknesses) successful fairly quickly. We do not believe
that the Chinese can be confident of such a quick success.
Accordingly, we believe that some other motivation is more
likely to be primary 4 erhaps a desire to pre-empt an antic-
ipated Chinese Nationalist attack by means of a spoiling
operation against the offshore islands
DOCUMENT NO.,.
NO C H IN CLASS. ^
CLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70.2 e,
pATE REVIEWER. _
2 6 JUN
1980
Approved For Release 2006104/21: CIA-RDP79R00904AO00800030021-0