CHINESE INTENTIONS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: March 2, 1971
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Releee 2005/06x//23 00904 A 0030012-2
2 March 1971
1. With the approval and support of the DDI and D/ONE,
arrangements have been made for regular meetings of the analysts
in OCI, OSR, OER, and ONE who have responsibilities relating
to the subject of Chinese intentions in Indochina. FE Division
of DDP will also be represented at these meetings and will
provide the group with any special background or insights relevant
to our common concerns.
2. The purpose of this caucus is to provide extra assurance
that all aspects of the situation are being looked at and to in-
sure that we do not fall into the trap of interpreting new
information to fit our previous conceptions and recent estimates.
The group will not interfere with normal reporting procedures but
it may come up with suggestions for additional research, and
additional collection, which will be referred to appropriate
authorities. We will also produce an informal summary of our
reviews of the available intelligence and report them for your
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
SECRET ::::Downgrading and
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY declassification
25X1
20
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
 Approved For Relvidse 2005/06/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A500030012-2
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
information as appropriate. At present, we would expect to meet
on a weekly basis. Special meetings will be called in the case
of unusual developments. The attachment is a review of the sub-
stantive aspects of our first meeting held on 26 February.
3. We plan to restrict the dissemination of the group's
reporting on this subject. it will be an internal one only. We
suggest that copies go to: DCI, DDCI, DDI, DONE, D/OCI, D/OSR,
D/OER, DDP, C/FE, DDP, and SAVA.
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE OINILY
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
 Approved For ReldWW6 2005/06/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A00W0030012-2
SECRET
1 March 1971
SUBJECT: China Group Review of Chinese Activities Relevant
to the Current Situation in Indochina
1. The overall Impression of China's posture at this point
is that of watchful waiting. The Chinese are making some moves
to prepare for the worst (an extension of US/ARVN ground opera-
tions into North Vietnam or northern Laos) while passing the
message that they are not looking for trouble and remain
confident that North Vietnam can cope with the present threat
around Tchepone.
2. This overall impression
is consistent with the slight
toning down in Chinese propaganda observed over the past week.
Further to this point is the rapid falling off of public rallies
in China which were sparked by the official Peking statements
last week warning of a threat to China. It has now been left
to Hanoi to call attention to this threat and to warn vaguely
of possible Chinese Intervention.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
SECRETA downgrading and
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY declassification
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
 Approved For ReIe 2005/06/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A00 6.0030012-2
SECRET
it.. We are alert to a situation in which Hanoi might deploy
so much of its strategic reserve to the battle-front as to leave
North Vietnam itself highly vulnerable to large-scale ARVN/US
troop landings. It is conceivable that Hanoi, concerned over
such a contingency, has already reached agreement with Peking
for the use of Chinese troops to provide added security within
the DRV. Our views on the extent of advanced warning that
intelligence could provide on any such movement of Chinese forces
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
 Approved For Rele a 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A00Vf n030012-2
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
is not very optimistic. OSR will produce a memorandum within the
next few days for your information giving CIA views on the state
of our intelligence warning coverage on Chinese forces in south
and southwest China.
5. As a final word in this report it is well to keep in
mind that China still has problems other than Indochina. Border
problems with the USSR have not been resolved and the Soviet
military build-up continues. On the domestic scene there is
growing evidence of divisions within the leadership over the
Army's expanding role in politics. As reported in the 27
February C.I.B., Red Flag has recently launched an attack on
military officers, charging that many of them are arrogant
and complacent. It is too early to say that a large-scale
purge of the Army is underway or that such a purge, if it
develops, would seriously limit the Chinese in any course they
might wish to follow in Indochina. But the Army now plays the
key role in administering China; if a move should develop to
cut back its power and influence it could become a game of high
stakes, absorbing much of the time and energy of all senior
political leaders as well as the Army itself.
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030012-2
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904AO01500030012-2
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904AO01500030012-2