N.E.S.C. INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS, AD HOC WORKING GROUP, SOVIET AIR DEFENSES IN MID-1962

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2000
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: July 31, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

Approve4,For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79RR09961A000900070013-8
TOP SECRET 31 July 1958
20
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Assistant Director, National Estimates
Subject: N.E.S.C. Intelligence Requirements,
Ad Hoc Working Group, Soviet Air Defenses
In Mid-1962
8-1284
References: a. Memorandum 30 June 1958
b . Memorandum 11 July 1958 S. Cont. No.
AFCIN, HQ Usj,F
In accordance with reference b, above, an Ad Hoc Working
Group on Soviet Air Defense`s in Mid-1962, chaired by the Joint
Staff, with members and advisors invited from all agencies
and JTIB, GMIC, JAEIC and SEC, reviewed appropriate portions
of NIE 11--57, "Sino-Soviet Bloc Air Defense Capabilities
Through Mid-1962" (16 July 1957) from 10 July 1958 to date,
for the purpose of providing the IAC with intelligence assump-
tions for the Net Evaluation Sub-Committee.
The Ad Hoc Working Group, after re-examination of
NIE 11-57, believes that most of the NESC Soviet Air Defense
requirements are presently covered by NIE 11-57, and that this
coverage continues to be valid, with exception of the additions,
updatings and modifications that follow. The Ad Hoe Working
Group recommends that paragraphs 24, 25, 33, 34, 38, 40, 47
and 57 be revised where necessary to conform with the S.E.C.
contribution to N.I.E. 11-4-58, when approved.
Page Paragraph
2 2 Third Sentence: Delete "1300" and
2 5
TOP SECRET
substitute "1600".
Last Sentence: Delete "35,000" and
substitute "up to 40,000 to 45,000 feet".
Add at end of Paragraph: "By mid-1962
we estimate that the Sino-Soviet Bloc
fighter strength will be about 15,000 with
approximately 40% of that number all-
weather types."
Third Line: Delete word "low".
*USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File*
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
ti ; ! ~7 `i i
 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7.91 00961A000900070013-8
TOP SECRET
1(,)1. i,V lc ]1.y
Page Paragraph
3 11 Third Sentence: Delete and substitute:
"We estimate that the USSR will probably
not increase its present numerical
fighter strength and a cutback in the
number of Soviet manned interceptors
will probably begin prior to mid-1962."
3 12 Delete last clause and substitute: "By
1960 the Soviets will probably have in
full operation. a digital data handling
system for aircraft reporting and con-
trol purposes."
6
224
6
25
7
29-31
8
33
8
34
9
38
Revise to conform with N.I.E. ii-24-58,
when approved.
Add: "There is some evidence that
Soviets may be introducing a new IFF
system which will probably be fully
operational by 1960."
NOTE: Should be revised to conform
with NIE 11-5-58 when approved.
Revise to conform with N.I.E. 11-4-58,
when approved.
Revise to conform with N.I.E. 11-4-58,
when approved.
Change next to Last Sentence to read:
"The USSR has been engaged in the
development of automatic data handling
devices suitable for air defense purposes."
Delete the last sentence and substitute:
"It is believed that the Soviets are
introducing such equipment into opera-
tional use and that many key areas have
this equipment at the present time."
TOP SECRET - 2
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
 Apprgxpd For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7 R00961A000900070013-~87'
11C ON ` HO U T
TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
9 40 Second Sentence: Delete all after ". .
microwave frequencies." Substitute for
deleted clause the following sentence:
"Both shipborne and ground-based X-Band
jamming equipment are in operational use."
Fourth Sentence: 1)el.eto sentence beginning
"The vulnerability . . ." and substitute
the following: "A trend has been noted
towards frequency diversification, reducing
the earlier concentration of frequencies
in the 75-85 me/s, 2610-3100 me/s, and
9200-9500 mc/s bands. This trend includes
the addition of L-Band frequencies near
500 mc/s and probably the use of rapidly
changeable frequencies in some radars."
10 43 Add, "By mid-1962 there will be about 285
regiments of fighters in Soviet Air Forces.
Add, "The European Satellites and Communist
China are expected to receive increasing
quantities of AAA guns of the 100 and 57 mm
types. In addition, newer type radar for
warning and control purposes will be allotted
in these countries."
11 47 First Sentence: Delete "500" and substitute
11600". Add, "We estimate that the entire
periphery of the USSR now has early warning
radar. The long standing gaps in peripheral
early warning radar coverage along the Arctic
coast between Dikson and the Chukotski is
now believed to have been filled, though
perhaps not as extensively as in other
areas. The Soviets by mid-1962 will probably
have radar cover for all areas, except for
inland areas of central and eastern Siberia."
TOP SECRET
- 3
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
4
 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDUPR00961~A0'009000700133-8 .._ T
Null
Page Paragraph
11 4+8 Fourth Sentence: Delete "frequently"
and "up to", and add "or longer"
13 57 Add new Last Sentence: "However, with
the anticipated implementation of data
handling equipment, this traffic-
handling capacity is expected to increase
to at least twenty simultaneous raids."
14 63 Add, "By mid-1962 we estimate that
some of the static subdistrict, and
District Headquarters, and major GCI
sites will have underground facilities."
14 64 Change Third Sentence to read:
. . . will probably rise to more than
one-third by mid-1962. In addition,
i4 65 Delete Third Sentence, change Fourth
Sentence, as follows: "A few recent
reports reflect the construction of
detached heavy shelters for government
and economic units. The Moscow and
Leningrad subways are available for use
as shelters, and additional subways
are under construction in Kiev and
Tblisi. Vladivostok, Baku. . ."
14 67 Delete Last Sentence, Add: "The USSR
is presently conducting a three-stage
course in civil defense training
announced as being for the entire
population. The target completion date
for these courses is the end of 1960.
Field demonstrations are conducted and
TOP SECRET
LE -
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
TOP SECRET
 Appr d For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDPUR00961A000900070013-8
+roiP eD1 CClip U 3Ufl."
TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
14 67
(Cont'd) (Cont'd)
air raid drills are prescribed. There
is some evidence that drills have been
conducted on a city wide basis. By
mid-1962 we estimate that this type
of defense will be expanded to most
major cities and target areas.
15-16 70-75 inci NOTE: Discussion of Western develop-
76 (1st
sentence) ments appears in these sections. It is
estimated that the Soviets will assess
Western developments accurately for just
what they will be. The NESC, presumably,
will be informed fully of the Western
air and missile threat to the Bloc.
16-17 76 Change Fourth Sentence as follows:
into operational units as follows:
in late 1958, a FISHBED-FACEPLATE type;
in late 1958 the FITTER day fighter, and
17 77 Change Second Sentence: "Maximum
speeds of about 1200 knots will probably
be achieved by the 1958-1959 day fighter."
In the Fourth Sentence, change the first
word "Most" to "All".
17 78 Delete from Last Sentence "60 percent"
and substitute "50 percent".
17 79 Delete Last Sentence, add: "On this
basis; we hold estimated Soviet fighter
strength constant at about 10,000 through
mid-1960 at which time the Soviets will
probably gradually decrease their fighter
strength. By mid-1962 we estimate the
Soviet fighter strength to be slightly over
9,000 aircraft."
TOP SECRET
-- 5 -
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
J J y,) i s
 Approve .1 For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7,00961A000900070013-8
alp (O)~ ~~~ \~ 1st ~a ~!~ V
TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
19 89 Change Fifth Sentence and all Sentences
thereafter, as follows: "Considering
operational availability dates as fall-
ing within a two-year period, in some
cases, (Refer N.I.E. 11-5-53), and air
defense missiles as a high-priority
element in an over-all Soviet missile
program, we believe that the USSR
might produce, by mid-1962, sufficient
missiles and guidance equipment to
.accomplish an operational program of a
general order of magnitude about as
follows:
Estimated Missile
No. of Missile
Tykes
Units
SA-1
56
SA-2
175
SA-3
150
SA-4
100
Total
78'l
In addition, they could equip about 6
cruisers and 16 destroyers with surface-
to-air missiles; and equip all Bloc
all-weather fighters and some Bloc day
fighters with air-to-air missiles or
unguided rockets of various types."
21 96 Delete Second Sentence and substitute:
"We also have evidence that in addition
to the Soviet employment of individual
cruisers and destroyers in air early
warning exercises, Soviet minesweepers
are now being adapted for use as station
radar picket ships for continental early
warning."
TOP SECRET - 6 -
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
,.. 4.. to
 Apprv d For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPNRO~~T~~
E09 p7~0
?TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
21 98
22 100
31 Table 3
14.5 mm AA HMGs
(single, dual,
and quadruple
barrelled)
57 mm AA Gun
M 1950
100 in AA Gun
M 19-9
Delete last three Sentences and substitute:
"The limitation imposed by current air-
ground radio communications equipment
is probably being overcome by use of an
air-ground data-link system. By mid-1962
it is estimated that this equipment will
be in widespread use."
Delete Third and Fourth Sentences and
substitute following: "By mid-1960,
the air defense control and reporting
system will be passing information in
digital form and computors will be
employed to increase the traffic
handling capacity and to solve the
complex problems associated with
ground-controlled intercepts. This
system will be in widespread use within
the USSR and probably in the European
Satellite countries."
Change Table as follows:
CALIBER
MAXIMUM
WEIGHT OF EFFECTIVE MUZZLE RATE OF
PROJECTILE CEILING VELOCITY FIRE
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
`'Ir C ~ : t
 Appr,ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDi9R0IM~
o09VA0' I' I C
TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
11 48 Substitute new Table herewith:
Bloc Airfields in Mid-1958
Minimum Runway Lengths (feet)
AREA
USSR:
EUROPEAN SATELLITES:
ASIATIC COMMUNIST NATIONS:
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000
25X4 USAF
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A 9,Q007.p ~ 3 8~ !;
 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
tiJ
Page 30, Table 2 ESTIMATED PERFORMANCE OF SOVIET INTERCEPTOR AIRCRAFT (External Fuel)
OPTIMUM
:(Calculated in accordance with U.S. Mil C -5011A Spec except that fuel reserves are reduced to permit a maximum of 20 minutes maximum
endurance at Sea Level and aircraft operate at altitudes permitting maximum Radius)
5X4 USAF FAGOT FRESCO FRESCO 1 FARMER FLASH- 1950 1958 1958 1959 1962
A & B C & D LIGHT A FACEPLATE AWF FITTER AWF-59 AWF-62
FRESCO E is the same- as D but without afterburner and would have about the same performance as the A and B.
Combat ceiling is for FRESCO D.
Data shown at take-off gross weight. 25X40
Internal fuel only.
Military power. 25X40
I FRESCO D has
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8
2
 Appr ved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7ROOS,,P1 i9?Oj90 113 ) N12 T
TOP SECRET
Page Paragraph
34 Table 5 Substitute new Table:
Table
Estimated Actual Bloc Jet Fighter Strength in Operational Units
USSR Mid-1962
Day 4 4lo
All-weather 4890
Subtotals 9300
European
Satellites
Day
2860
All-weather
.0
Subtotals
3600
Asiatic
Communist
Day
1900
All-weather
690
Subtotals
2590
Bloc Totals
Day
9170
All-weather
6320
Subtotals
15,490
TOP SECRET - 10 -
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A00p90,0.Q'Q41. 11 Gy
 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RD 9ROkO"1 ?b09 WO )~., K
TOP SECRET
Page Paragr"dph
35 Table 6 Amend present Table as follows:
TABLE 6
OPERATIONAL SITES
Prime Early warning 1958 1962
Token 325 135
New Type - 1
TOTAL 325 310
Token
New Type
TOTAL
350
350
115
410
OPERATIONAL RADAR EQUIPMENTS
Air Search Types
Token 600 600
Gage & other new types 75 495
NOTE: Remainder of Table unchanged, including footnotes.
TOP SECRET - 11 -
Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R009&F 000900 Q >,~?
 TOP SECRE Mwo ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RD 9RG ? 09"f O 11fI- ct
PAGE PARAGRAPH
36 Table 7 - Aidend Table hs follows:
Estimated Actual S ?et th and dyment of Certain
Sino-Soft e B a e ense qu Tam " I Id-12627
Jet Fighter Acft in Op Units
JET
AREA
DAY
ALL WEATHER
TOTAL
FIGHTERS
REGIMENTS
Northwestern USSR
670
720
1390
43
Western USSR
985
1070
2055
63
West Central USSR
600
900
1500
45
Caucasus
555
575
1130
35
East Central USSR
305
315
620
19
Far Eastern USSR
850
820
1670
51
TOTAL WITHIN USSR
3965
4400
3365
256
Soviet Forces East Europe 445
490
935
29
TOTAL SOVIET:
(4410)
(4890)
(9300)
(285)
Satellite Nations
2860
740
X600
113
TOTAL EAST EUROPE:
3305
1230
4535
142
Asiatic Communist:
1900
690
2590
76
TOTAL BLOC:
9,170
6,320
15,490
474
NOTE: Radars, AAA new under review.
Footnotes remaiTi unchanged at present.
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R00 if CO 090~~~ 0~?$~ ~ L ,,.
c-~ i) f"(13-3 ~, i s
 Appr d For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP RO
TOP? BET
ANNEX C, MAPS
Approximate Number of Bloc Airfields Suitable for Jet
Fighter Operations for Use in Connection with Map I.
Mid-1262
USSR:
470
European. Satellites:
180
Asiatic Communist Nations:
180
roximate Number of USSR
fields for Ma
West USSR:
145
Caucasus:
50
North West USSR:
92
West Central USSR:
92
East Central USSR:
38
Far East USSR:
93
-51-0
Estimated Fighter Strengths in 1962 for the Areas
Listed for Use in Connection. with Map I:
9 Fate.
Eastern Europe:
Day:
3305
All-weather:
1230
West USSR:
Day:
985
All-weather:
1070
North Wit USSR :
Day:
670
All-weather:
720
West Central USSR:
Day:
600
All-weather:
900
Caucasus:
Day:
555
All-weather:
575
East Central USSR:
Day:
305
All-weather:
315
Far East USSR:
Day:
850
All-weather:
1,670
Asiatic Communist Nations:
Day: 1,900
All-weather:
690
TOP SECRET
13
Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R0096r,.1~ 000 P!, 1 .t ~_} I L1~
 Appr ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPWRO096 70p !}'I
TOP SECRET
Revised "Antiaircraft Artillery and3 Surface-to-Air Missile
Deployments" have not been sYown as it is not possible,
at this time, to assess the rate of phase-out of gun artillery,
nor to determine, in a geographic sense, the location of
SAM complexes.
GEORGE G. DEVERALL,
Colonel, USAF
Chairman, AHWG
TOP SECRET - 14
Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79ROOf961l11A00090007001~3-8 ff
T(Ji,) kJ IYjCltdt'(?l 'l