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Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
November 21, 2000
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Publication Date: 
July 31, 1958
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8.pdf538.81 KB
Approve4,For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79RR09961A000900070013-8 TOP SECRET 31 July 1958 20 MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Assistant Director, National Estimates Subject: N.E.S.C. Intelligence Requirements, Ad Hoc Working Group, Soviet Air Defenses In Mid-1962 8-1284 References: a. Memorandum 30 June 1958 b . Memorandum 11 July 1958 S. Cont. No. AFCIN, HQ Usj,F In accordance with reference b, above, an Ad Hoc Working Group on Soviet Air Defense`s in Mid-1962, chaired by the Joint Staff, with members and advisors invited from all agencies and JTIB, GMIC, JAEIC and SEC, reviewed appropriate portions of NIE 11--57, "Sino-Soviet Bloc Air Defense Capabilities Through Mid-1962" (16 July 1957) from 10 July 1958 to date, for the purpose of providing the IAC with intelligence assump- tions for the Net Evaluation Sub-Committee. The Ad Hoc Working Group, after re-examination of NIE 11-57, believes that most of the NESC Soviet Air Defense requirements are presently covered by NIE 11-57, and that this coverage continues to be valid, with exception of the additions, updatings and modifications that follow. The Ad Hoe Working Group recommends that paragraphs 24, 25, 33, 34, 38, 40, 47 and 57 be revised where necessary to conform with the S.E.C. contribution to N.I.E. 11-4-58, when approved. Page Paragraph 2 2 Third Sentence: Delete "1300" and 2 5 TOP SECRET substitute "1600". Last Sentence: Delete "35,000" and substitute "up to 40,000 to 45,000 feet". Add at end of Paragraph: "By mid-1962 we estimate that the Sino-Soviet Bloc fighter strength will be about 15,000 with approximately 40% of that number all- weather types." Third Line: Delete word "low". *USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File* Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 ti ; ! ~7 `i i Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7.91 00961A000900070013-8 TOP SECRET 1(,)1. i,V lc ]1.y Page Paragraph 3 11 Third Sentence: Delete and substitute: "We estimate that the USSR will probably not increase its present numerical fighter strength and a cutback in the number of Soviet manned interceptors will probably begin prior to mid-1962." 3 12 Delete last clause and substitute: "By 1960 the Soviets will probably have in full operation. a digital data handling system for aircraft reporting and con- trol purposes." 6 224 6 25 7 29-31 8 33 8 34 9 38 Revise to conform with N.I.E. ii-24-58, when approved. Add: "There is some evidence that Soviets may be introducing a new IFF system which will probably be fully operational by 1960." NOTE: Should be revised to conform with NIE 11-5-58 when approved. Revise to conform with N.I.E. 11-4-58, when approved. Revise to conform with N.I.E. 11-4-58, when approved. Change next to Last Sentence to read: "The USSR has been engaged in the development of automatic data handling devices suitable for air defense purposes." Delete the last sentence and substitute: "It is believed that the Soviets are introducing such equipment into opera- tional use and that many key areas have this equipment at the present time." TOP SECRET - 2 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 Apprgxpd For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7 R00961A000900070013-~87' 11C ON ` HO U T TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 9 40 Second Sentence: Delete all after ". . microwave frequencies." Substitute for deleted clause the following sentence: "Both shipborne and ground-based X-Band jamming equipment are in operational use." Fourth Sentence: 1)el.eto sentence beginning "The vulnerability . . ." and substitute the following: "A trend has been noted towards frequency diversification, reducing the earlier concentration of frequencies in the 75-85 me/s, 2610-3100 me/s, and 9200-9500 mc/s bands. This trend includes the addition of L-Band frequencies near 500 mc/s and probably the use of rapidly changeable frequencies in some radars." 10 43 Add, "By mid-1962 there will be about 285 regiments of fighters in Soviet Air Forces. Add, "The European Satellites and Communist China are expected to receive increasing quantities of AAA guns of the 100 and 57 mm types. In addition, newer type radar for warning and control purposes will be allotted in these countries." 11 47 First Sentence: Delete "500" and substitute 11600". Add, "We estimate that the entire periphery of the USSR now has early warning radar. The long standing gaps in peripheral early warning radar coverage along the Arctic coast between Dikson and the Chukotski is now believed to have been filled, though perhaps not as extensively as in other areas. The Soviets by mid-1962 will probably have radar cover for all areas, except for inland areas of central and eastern Siberia." TOP SECRET - 3 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 4 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDUPR00961~A0'009000700133-8 .._ T Null Page Paragraph 11 4+8 Fourth Sentence: Delete "frequently" and "up to", and add "or longer" 13 57 Add new Last Sentence: "However, with the anticipated implementation of data handling equipment, this traffic- handling capacity is expected to increase to at least twenty simultaneous raids." 14 63 Add, "By mid-1962 we estimate that some of the static subdistrict, and District Headquarters, and major GCI sites will have underground facilities." 14 64 Change Third Sentence to read: . . . will probably rise to more than one-third by mid-1962. In addition, i4 65 Delete Third Sentence, change Fourth Sentence, as follows: "A few recent reports reflect the construction of detached heavy shelters for government and economic units. The Moscow and Leningrad subways are available for use as shelters, and additional subways are under construction in Kiev and Tblisi. Vladivostok, Baku. . ." 14 67 Delete Last Sentence, Add: "The USSR is presently conducting a three-stage course in civil defense training announced as being for the entire population. The target completion date for these courses is the end of 1960. Field demonstrations are conducted and TOP SECRET LE - Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 TOP SECRET Appr d For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDPUR00961A000900070013-8 +roiP eD1 CClip U 3Ufl." TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 14 67 (Cont'd) (Cont'd) air raid drills are prescribed. There is some evidence that drills have been conducted on a city wide basis. By mid-1962 we estimate that this type of defense will be expanded to most major cities and target areas. 15-16 70-75 inci NOTE: Discussion of Western develop- 76 (1st sentence) ments appears in these sections. It is estimated that the Soviets will assess Western developments accurately for just what they will be. The NESC, presumably, will be informed fully of the Western air and missile threat to the Bloc. 16-17 76 Change Fourth Sentence as follows: into operational units as follows: in late 1958, a FISHBED-FACEPLATE type; in late 1958 the FITTER day fighter, and 17 77 Change Second Sentence: "Maximum speeds of about 1200 knots will probably be achieved by the 1958-1959 day fighter." In the Fourth Sentence, change the first word "Most" to "All". 17 78 Delete from Last Sentence "60 percent" and substitute "50 percent". 17 79 Delete Last Sentence, add: "On this basis; we hold estimated Soviet fighter strength constant at about 10,000 through mid-1960 at which time the Soviets will probably gradually decrease their fighter strength. By mid-1962 we estimate the Soviet fighter strength to be slightly over 9,000 aircraft." TOP SECRET -- 5 - Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 J J y,) i s Approve .1 For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7,00961A000900070013-8 alp (O)~ ~~~ \~ 1st ~a ~!~ V TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 19 89 Change Fifth Sentence and all Sentences thereafter, as follows: "Considering operational availability dates as fall- ing within a two-year period, in some cases, (Refer N.I.E. 11-5-53), and air defense missiles as a high-priority element in an over-all Soviet missile program, we believe that the USSR might produce, by mid-1962, sufficient missiles and guidance equipment to .accomplish an operational program of a general order of magnitude about as follows: Estimated Missile No. of Missile Tykes Units SA-1 56 SA-2 175 SA-3 150 SA-4 100 Total 78'l In addition, they could equip about 6 cruisers and 16 destroyers with surface- to-air missiles; and equip all Bloc all-weather fighters and some Bloc day fighters with air-to-air missiles or unguided rockets of various types." 21 96 Delete Second Sentence and substitute: "We also have evidence that in addition to the Soviet employment of individual cruisers and destroyers in air early warning exercises, Soviet minesweepers are now being adapted for use as station radar picket ships for continental early warning." TOP SECRET - 6 - Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 ,.. 4.. to Apprv d For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPNRO~~T~~ E09 p7~0 ?TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 21 98 22 100 31 Table 3 14.5 mm AA HMGs (single, dual, and quadruple barrelled) 57 mm AA Gun M 1950 100 in AA Gun M 19-9 Delete last three Sentences and substitute: "The limitation imposed by current air- ground radio communications equipment is probably being overcome by use of an air-ground data-link system. By mid-1962 it is estimated that this equipment will be in widespread use." Delete Third and Fourth Sentences and substitute following: "By mid-1960, the air defense control and reporting system will be passing information in digital form and computors will be employed to increase the traffic handling capacity and to solve the complex problems associated with ground-controlled intercepts. This system will be in widespread use within the USSR and probably in the European Satellite countries." Change Table as follows: CALIBER MAXIMUM WEIGHT OF EFFECTIVE MUZZLE RATE OF PROJECTILE CEILING VELOCITY FIRE TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 `'Ir C ~ : t Appr,ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDi9R0IM~ o09VA0' I' I C TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 11 48 Substitute new Table herewith: Bloc Airfields in Mid-1958 Minimum Runway Lengths (feet) AREA USSR: EUROPEAN SATELLITES: ASIATIC COMMUNIST NATIONS: 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 25X4 USAF TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A 9,Q007.p ~ 3 8~ !; Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 tiJ Page 30, Table 2 ESTIMATED PERFORMANCE OF SOVIET INTERCEPTOR AIRCRAFT (External Fuel) OPTIMUM :(Calculated in accordance with U.S. Mil C -5011A Spec except that fuel reserves are reduced to permit a maximum of 20 minutes maximum endurance at Sea Level and aircraft operate at altitudes permitting maximum Radius) 5X4 USAF FAGOT FRESCO FRESCO 1 FARMER FLASH- 1950 1958 1958 1959 1962 A & B C & D LIGHT A FACEPLATE AWF FITTER AWF-59 AWF-62 FRESCO E is the same- as D but without afterburner and would have about the same performance as the A and B. Combat ceiling is for FRESCO D. Data shown at take-off gross weight. 25X40 Internal fuel only. Military power. 25X40 I FRESCO D has Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070013-8 2 Appr ved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP7ROOS,,P1 i9?Oj90 113 ) N12 T TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 34 Table 5 Substitute new Table: Table Estimated Actual Bloc Jet Fighter Strength in Operational Units USSR Mid-1962 Day 4 4lo All-weather 4890 Subtotals 9300 European Satellites Day 2860 All-weather .0 Subtotals 3600 Asiatic Communist Day 1900 All-weather 690 Subtotals 2590 Bloc Totals Day 9170 All-weather 6320 Subtotals 15,490 TOP SECRET - 10 - Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A00p90,0.Q'Q41. 11 Gy Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RD 9ROkO"1 ?b09 WO )~., K TOP SECRET Page Paragr"dph 35 Table 6 Amend present Table as follows: TABLE 6 OPERATIONAL SITES Prime Early warning 1958 1962 Token 325 135 New Type - 1 TOTAL 325 310 Token New Type TOTAL 350 350 115 410 OPERATIONAL RADAR EQUIPMENTS Air Search Types Token 600 600 Gage & other new types 75 495 NOTE: Remainder of Table unchanged, including footnotes. TOP SECRET - 11 - Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R009&F 000900 Q >,~? TOP SECRE Mwo ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RD 9RG ? 09"f O 11fI- ct PAGE PARAGRAPH 36 Table 7 - Aidend Table hs follows: Estimated Actual S ?et th and dyment of Certain Sino-Soft e B a e ense qu Tam " I Id-12627 Jet Fighter Acft in Op Units JET AREA DAY ALL WEATHER TOTAL FIGHTERS REGIMENTS Northwestern USSR 670 720 1390 43 Western USSR 985 1070 2055 63 West Central USSR 600 900 1500 45 Caucasus 555 575 1130 35 East Central USSR 305 315 620 19 Far Eastern USSR 850 820 1670 51 TOTAL WITHIN USSR 3965 4400 3365 256 Soviet Forces East Europe 445 490 935 29 TOTAL SOVIET: (4410) (4890) (9300) (285) Satellite Nations 2860 740 X600 113 TOTAL EAST EUROPE: 3305 1230 4535 142 Asiatic Communist: 1900 690 2590 76 TOTAL BLOC: 9,170 6,320 15,490 474 NOTE: Radars, AAA new under review. Footnotes remaiTi unchanged at present. TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R00 if CO 090~~~ 0~?$~ ~ L ,,. c-~ i) f"(13-3 ~, i s Appr d For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP RO TOP? BET ANNEX C, MAPS Approximate Number of Bloc Airfields Suitable for Jet Fighter Operations for Use in Connection with Map I. Mid-1262 USSR: 470 European. Satellites: 180 Asiatic Communist Nations: 180 roximate Number of USSR fields for Ma West USSR: 145 Caucasus: 50 North West USSR: 92 West Central USSR: 92 East Central USSR: 38 Far East USSR: 93 -51-0 Estimated Fighter Strengths in 1962 for the Areas Listed for Use in Connection. with Map I: 9 Fate. Eastern Europe: Day: 3305 All-weather: 1230 West USSR: Day: 985 All-weather: 1070 North Wit USSR : Day: 670 All-weather: 720 West Central USSR: Day: 600 All-weather: 900 Caucasus: Day: 555 All-weather: 575 East Central USSR: Day: 305 All-weather: 315 Far East USSR: Day: 850 All-weather: 1,670 Asiatic Communist Nations: Day: 1,900 All-weather: 690 TOP SECRET 13 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R0096r,.1~ 000 P!, 1 .t ~_} I L1~ Appr ed For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPWRO096 70p !}'I TOP SECRET Revised "Antiaircraft Artillery and3 Surface-to-Air Missile Deployments" have not been sYown as it is not possible, at this time, to assess the rate of phase-out of gun artillery, nor to determine, in a geographic sense, the location of SAM complexes. GEORGE G. DEVERALL, Colonel, USAF Chairman, AHWG TOP SECRET - 14 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79ROOf961l11A00090007001~3-8 ff T(Ji,) kJ IYjCltdt'(?l 'l