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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
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Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
November 27, 2000
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Publication Date: 
July 24, 1958
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7.pdf462.51 KB
Approved, For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R4Jp1ty . ~tJ [,t 1~~ TOP SECRET 2 WOfktNO D] AFT 24 July 1958 WORKING PAPER N.E.S.C. INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS I 1 ! T AD HOC WORKING GROUP SOVIET AIR DEFENSES IN MID-1962 References: a. Memorandum 30 June 1958 F. Memorandum 11 July 1958 In accordance with reference b, above, an Ad Hoc Working Group on Soviet Air Defenses in Mid-1962, chaired by the Joint Staff, with members and advisors invited from all agencies and JTIB, GMIC, JAEIC and SEC, reviewed appropriate portions of NIE 11-57, "Sino-Soviet Bloc Air Defense Capabilities Through Mid-1962" (16 July 1957) from 10 July 1958 to date, for the purpose of providing the IAC with intelligence assumptions for the Net Evaluation Sub-Committee. The Ad Hoc Working Group, after re-examination of NIE 11-57, believes that most of the NESC Soviet Air Defense requirements are presently covered by NIE 11-57, and that this coverage continues to be valid, with exception of the additions, up-datings and modifications that follow. Page Paragraph 2 2 Third Sentence: Delete "1300" and substitute ll1600" . Last Sentence: Delete "35,000" and substitute "up to 40,000 to 4,000 feet". Add at end of Paragraph: "By mid-1962 we estimate that the Sino-Soviet Bloc fighter strength will be about 15,000 with approxi- mately 40% of that number all-weather types." 2 5 Third Line: Delete word "low". 3 11 Third Sentence: Delete and substitute; "We estimate that the USSR will probably not rrese its present numerical fighter strength and a cutback in the number of Soviet manned inter- ceptors will probably begin prior to mid-1962." *USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File* TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7 0gfij ~g0 7 JI-g~) is 4'"'4 TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 3 12 Delete last clause and substitute: "By 1960 the Soviets will probably have in full operation a digital data handling system for aircraft reporting and control purposes." 6 24 Last Sentence: Delete "15-30 and 10-20" and substitute: ". . . 16-6 n.m. respectively, however some models may have AI radar with search ranges of 15-30 n.m. and track ranges of 10-20 n.m." 6 25 Add: "There is some evidence that Soviets may be introducing a new IFF system which will probably be fully operational by 1960." 7 29-31 NOTE: Should be revised to conform with NIE 11-5-58 when approved. 8 33 Add to the Table: SLANT MESH 100-200 n.m. 80-120 n.m. STRIKE OUT 80-180 n.m. 70-100 n.m. BIG MESH about 150 n.m. about 100 n.m. 8 34 Second Line: After the word "TOKEN" add: "(or newer modifications thereof such as BIG MESH, STRIKE OUT, and SLANT MESH)" Add to the Table: BIG MESH/ROCK CAKE about 120 n.r1. about 80 n.m. SLANT MESH/ROCK CAKE 80-110 n.m. 50-70 n.m. 9 38 Change next to last sentence to read: "The USSR has been engaged in the development of automatic data handling devices suitable for air defense purposes." Delete the last sentence and substitute: "It is believed that the Soviets are intro- ducing such equipment into operational use and that many key areas have this equipment at the present time." TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79RO0961A000900070014-7 f{ ApprovedFor Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79096jml O QP1t7Y,,,, a J) TOP SECRET Page Paragraphs 9 4O Second Sentence: Delete all after ". . microwave frequencies." Substitute for deleted clause the following sentence: "Both shipborne and ground-based X-Band Jamming equipment are in operational use. Fourth Sentence: Delete sentence beginning "The vulnerability . . It and substitute the following: "A trend has been noted towards frequency diversification, reducing the earlier concentration of frequencies in the 75-85 me/s, 2610-3100 me/s, and 9200-9500 me/s band.s. This trend includes the addition of L-Band frequencies near 500 me/s and probably the use of rapidly changeable frequencies in same radars." 10 43 Add, "By mid-1962 there will be about 285 regiments of fighters in Soviet Air Forces. Add, "The European Satellites and Communist China are expected to receive increasing quantities of AAA guns of the 100 and 57 mm types. In addition, newer type radar for warning and control purposes will be allotted in these countries." 11 47 First Sentence: Delete "500" and substitute "600". Add, "We estimate that the entire periphery of the USSR now has early warning radar. The long standing gaps in peripheral early warning radar coverage along the Arctic coast between Dikson and the Chukotski is now believed to have been filled, though perhaps not as extensively as in other areas. The Soviets by mid-1962 will probably have radar cover for all areas, except for inland areas of central and eastern Siberia." TOP SECRET 3- Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7 i Approve For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7 U4~6 9 c1) l i 1R i TOP SECRET Page Paragraph 11 13 48 57 -1.4 63 14 67 Fourth Sentence: Delete "frequently" and "up to", and add "or longer". Add new Last Sentence: "However, with the anticipated implementation of data handling equipment, this traffic-handling capacity is expected to increase to twelve simul- taneous raids." Add, "By mid-1962 we estimate that the static subdistrict, and District Head- quarters, and major GCI sites will have underground facilities." Delete Last Sentence, Add "Field demon- strations are conducted and air raid drills are prescribed. There is some evidence that drills have been conducted on a full scale, city wide basis. By mid-1962 we estimate that this type of defense will be expanded to most major cities and target areas. 5-16 70-75 incl NOTE: Discussion Of Western. developments 76 (1st sentence) appears in these sections. It is estimated that the Soviets will assess Western developments accurately for just what they will be. The NESC, presumably, will be informed fully of the Western air and missile threat to the Bloc. TOP SECRET - 4 Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79RO0961A000900070014-7 lst ^ ` 4 j Gjd Appro ec For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7CP09.1~~(OQ900~(~1,y7~~, TOP SECRET Page 17 Paragraph 77 Change Second Sentence: "Maximum speeds of about 1200 knots will probably be achieved by the 1958-1959 day fighter," In the fourth sentence, change the first word "most" to "All". 17 78 Delete from last Sentence "60 percent" and substitute "50 percent". 17 79 Delete last sentence, add "On this basis; we hold estimated Soviet fighter strength constant at about 10,000 through mid-1960 at which time the Soviets will probably gradu- ally decrease their fighter strength. By mid-1962 we estimate the Soviet fighter strength to be slightly over 9,000 aircraft." 21 96 Delete Second Sentence and Substitute: "We also have evidence that in addition to the Soviet employment of individual cruisers and destroyers in air early warning exercises, Soviet minesweepers are now being adapted for use as station radar picket ships for continental early warning." 21 98 Delete last three Sentences and Substitute: "The limitation imposed by current air-ground radio communications equipment Is probably being overcome by use of an air-ground data- link system. By mid-1962 it is estimated that this equipment will be in widespread user' TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPWOOV164 TOP SECRET Page 22 Paragraph 31 Table 3 WEAPON 14.5 mm AA HMGs (single, dual, and quadruple barrelled) 57 mm AA Gun M 1950 100 mm AA Gun M 1949 090 YA RI, l?a"W Delete Third and Fourth Sentences and Substitute Following: "By mid-1960 the air defense control and reporting system will be passing information in digital form and computors will be employed to increase the traffic handling capacity and to solve the complex problems associated with ground-controlled intercepts. This system will be in widespread use within the USSR and probably in the European Satellite countries." Change Table as Follows: MAXIMUM WEIGHT OF EFFECTIVE MUZZLE RATE OF CALIBER PROJECTILE CEILING VELOCITY FIRE 25X4 USAF TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R00961AQO0909 .Q 001 7.) Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7,W00~~' 390 1 - 4 ~ ` ~:' TOP SECRET Pa e Paragraph 11 48 Substitute new Table herewith: Bloc Airfields in Mid-1958 Minimum Runway Lengths (feet) AREA USSR: EUROPEAN SATELLITES: ASIATIC COMMUNIST NATIONS: 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,ooo 5,000 25X4 USAF TOP SECRET - 7 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R0095,1AOOQ900p7q0,,14-7~ .~ , Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7 Page 30, Table 2 ESTIMATED PERFORMANCE OF SOVIET MTMA,EPTOR AIRCRAFT (External Fuel) OPTIMUM (Calculated in accordance with U.S.. Mil C -5011A Spec except that fuel reserves are reduced to permit a maximum of 20 minutes maximum endurance at Sea Level and aircraft operate at altitudes permitting maximum Radius) 25X4 USAF FAGOT FRESCO FRESCO J FARMER FLASH- 1958 1958 1959 1962 A&B- C& D LI(BT A FACEPLATE A FITTER AWF- 9 AF-62 FRESCO E is the same-as D but without afterburner and would have about the same performance as the A and B. Combat ceiling is _ for FRESCO D. 25X40 Data shown at take-off gross weight. J Internal fuel only. Military power. 25X40 FRESCO Dhas Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7 a Fa ~ Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP00` 901 11 i 481 T'bP SECRET Page Paragraph 34 Table 5 Substitute new Table: Table Estimated Actual Bloc Jet Fighter Strength in Operational Units USSR Mid-1962 Day 4410 All-weather 4890 Subtotals 9300 European Satellites Day 2860 All-weather 740 Subtotals 3600 Asiatic Communist Day 1900 All-weather 690 Subtotals 2590 Bloc Totals Day 9170 All-weather 6320 Subtotals 15,490 TOP SECRET - 9 - Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79ROO961AOOR9(JOO Qt A ' Ci= s;. e., a :~ ~ !, i.~ Approve For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP7 009 ,1AW0( 7 Q - ~ ~, ~J1 TOP SECRET Pa e Paragraph 35 Table 6 Amend present Table as follows: TABLE 6 OPERATIONAL SITES Prime Early Warning 1958 1962 Token 325 135 New Type - 17 TOTAL 325 310 GCI Token 350 115 New Type 295 TOTAL 350 410 OPERATIONAL RADAR EQUIPMENTS Air Search Types Token 600 600 Gage & other new types 75 495 NOTE: Remainder of Table unchanged, including footnotes. TOP SECRET - 10 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R0096'AQQ090JO~iQQ~ltl~,> ~~, ( 4r7) TOP SECRIN?proved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPq,R06 9 -I CN 36 Table 7 - Amend Table as follows: Estimated Actual Strength and Deployment of Certain Sino-Sov et Bloc Air e ense qu pment Mich-1' 62 j . Jet Fighter Acft in Op Units AREA JET FIGHTERS DAY ALL WEATHER TOTAL REGIMENTS Northwestern USSR 670 720 1 390 43 Western USSR 985 1070 2 055 63 West Central USSR 600 900 1 500 45 Caucasus 555 575 1 130 35 East Central USSR 305 315 620 19 Far Eastern USSR 850 820 1 670 51 TOTAL WITHIN USSR 3965 4400 8 365 256 Soviet Forces East Europe 445 490 9 35 29 TOTAL SOVIET: (4410) (4890) (93 00) (285) Satellite Nations 2860 740 36 00 113 TOTAL. EAST EUROPE: 3305 1230 4 535 142 Asiatic Communist: 1900 6g0 2 590 76 TOTAL BLOC: 9,170 6,320 15, 480 474 NOTE: Radars.. AAA now under review, Footnotes remain unchanged at present. TOP SECRET - 11 - t. ~'., ~ Approved For Release 2001/11/20 : CIA-RDP79R009 .r0? 00:7114-7 IT -A PI Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDPO TOP wECRET ANNEX Cy MAPS: P9 Approximate Number of Bloc Airfields Suitable for Jet Fighter Operations for Use in Connection with Map I. Mid-1962 USSR: 470 European Satellites: 180 Asiatic Communist Nations: 180 Breakdown of USSR airfields for Map I: West USSR: 135 Caucasus: 45 North West USSR: 85 West Central USSR: 85 East Central USSR: 35 Far East USSR: 85 470 Estimated fighter strengths in 1962 for the areas listed for use in connection with Map I: Eastern Europe: Day: 3305 All-weather : 1230 West USSR: Day: 985 All-weather : 1070 Northwest USSR: Day: 670 All-weather : 720 West Central USSR: Day: 600 All-weather : g00 Caucasus: Day: 555 All-weather : 575 East Central USSR: Day: 305 All-weather : 315 Far East USSR: Day: 850 All-weather : 1,670 Asiatic Communist Nations: Day; 1,,900 All-weather : 690 TOP SECRET - 12 Approved For Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79R0q 1 0090 ~0790 1 4- ~,