DRAFT GMAIC CONTRIBUTION TO NIE 13-60 COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00961A001100080006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2005
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: July 22, 1960
• Content Type: NIE

SECRET
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GUIDED MISSILE AND ASTRONAUTICS INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
FOR GMAIC CONSIDERATION o 10 August 1960
DRAFT
CMAIC CONTRIBUTION
TO
NIE 13-60
COMMUNIST CHINA
11 Communist China's scientific, technical and industrial capabilities are
very limited. However, an intensive program is being conducted to
improve this situation. This program to. improve Chinese scientific status
is directed to the fundamental disciplines of science such as applied
mathematics. mechanics, thermodynamics, electronics, chemistry, etc.,
which have basic application to the missile/space problem. There is
evidence of a growing awareness within Chinese scientific and military
circles of the importance of guided missiles in modern warfare, and it can
be assumed that some basic scientific effort in China today is directed
toward an ultimate native missile capability. There are several outstanding
Chinese Communists scientists, some of whom are U. S. trained in missile
technology. actively engaged in basic research related to guided missiles /
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A broad industrial base is a fundamental requirement in the achievement
of any significant guided missile /astronautic capability. Chinese el-forts
in this direction have been well publicised and it is known that considerable
Soviet economic and technical assistance is being given by the USSR to
assist in the Chinese industrial growth program but as of now, China is not
believed to have an adequate economic /industrial capability upon which an
early missile capability could be based.
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feasible until several years later.
In consideration of the tie basic requirements above; the necessary
ii h degree of integration of these factors; the broad technical Andustri at
base required to support a native guided missile ef#o
we believe the Chinese Communists are not
yet ready to engage in the design, test or production of any type of guided
Y Yissite. Even if initiated now (19602, it would require about 10 years for
the Chinese Communists to acquire a significant native guided missile
capability.
' The Chinese Communists are, however, believed to be capable of
developing and producing unguided rockets for use with non-nuclear warheads
by 1965. Such an endeavor is probable, in order to provide the means for
delivering large HE warheads at ranges in excess of conventional artillery,
as well as for propaganda purposes.
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from the territory of Communist China . Any launching from Communist
China will be the direct result of Soviet participation and the decision to
do so would be based on political factors.
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