WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF UGANDA'S EXPULSION OF ITS ASIANS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A000500030017-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: October 25, 1972
• Content Type: MEMO

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Con i ential
25X1
OFFICE OF
NATIONAL ESTIMATES
MEMORANDUM
Wider Implications of Uganda's Expulsion of its Asians
Confidential
25 October 1972
Copy No.
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
25 October 1972
SUBJECT: Wider Implications of Uganda's Expulsion of its Asians*
The expulsion order served by Ugandan President Idi Amin
on his non-citizen Asian population is having a considerable
impact on all elements of the Uganda populace, and is likely
to affect delicate race relationships in other East African
countries. This memorandum addresses the implications of
Ugandan actions for the Asian minorities in Kenya and Tanzania,
and possible problems of resettlement which.would affect the
UK, and perhaps the US.
This memorandum was prepared in the Office of National Estimates
and discussed with appropriate offices in CIA, which are in agree-
ment with its principal judgments.
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A. The Role of the Asians in East Africa
1. The Asians (mostly Indians) first came to East Africa in
large numbers in the early years of the twentieth century to build
the railroads and to set up small retail businesses along the rail
lines. This migration was confined to East Africa -- Kenya, Uganda,
Tanzania, and the east coast of South Africa with some spillover
into bordering areas. There are very few Asians in other parts of
the continent. Through natural increase and further immigration the
Asian community in East Africa grew very rapidly. Barred by British
Colonial law from owning arable land, they took to commerce on all
levels, to service industries, and to the professions. British
colonial officials tended to employ Asian clerks and assistants,
often in preference to Africans, because the Asians were better
educated and were more used to modern ways of doing things. Hence,
in the years before East African independence the Asian communi-
ties constituted the bulk of the middle class. They still do.
2. Even after several generations of residence in East Africa
the Asians tend to live quite apart from.the Africans. Though they
have daily business relations with Africans, there is virtually no
social contact and no inter-marriage. In dress, diet, language, and
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religious and cultural activities, the Asians maintain their separate
identity. Within the Asian community there are great disparities in
wealth and sharp divisions by caste and sect. In these sub-communi-
ties marriages are arranged, money loaned and borrowed, business
opportunities discussed, and traditional customs maintained. Few
of the Indians display much sense of national allegiance. They
have stayed on in East Africa despite increasing pressures and
dangers because of the ties of property and investment and because they
had no other place to go. When independence came to East African
countries in the early 1960s relatively few Asians chose to become
citizens. Many of those who did were careful to preserve British
passports. Others who applied for citizenship came afoul of African
bureaucracy and ended up stateless. Most no longer have ties to
India or Pakistan.
3. In the last few years, as Africans have become more demanding
and as Africanization programs have developed, the Asian near monopoly
of commerce and professional activities has come under attack. Criticism
of the Asians has at least three facets: the African man-in-the-street
believes that Asian merchants and money lenders are cheating him and his
fellow countrymen. Educated or semi-educated Africans are jealous of the
Asians' jobs, positions, and perquisites, and feel competent to replace
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them. And, the African ruling elite, faced with heavy internal
budgetary problems, are incensed by the efforts of rich Asians
to move their money out of the country. Also, there is a grow-
ing xenophobic trend which has led to a hardening of African
attitudes towards the Asians.
4. Ever since independence East African governments have
been under increasing pressures for throwing the Asians out, but
have resisted for fear of disrupting the domestic economy. A
variety of lesser measures-has been tried at one time or another:
in Kenya, denial of trading permits to non-citizens; in Tanzania,
severe limitations on private enterprise and state seizure of
some properties; and in Uganda, nationalization of some businesses.
Unofficially, there has been a fair amount of harassment, extortion
from wealthy Asians, demands for donations, and heavy tax assessments.
5. In so far as the aim was to reduce the Asian population,
these programs have had some success. In the past five years or so,
one-third to one-half of the East African Asians have left. Of those
remaining, roughly half have some claim to local citizenship. The
dilemma remains, however, for the Asians still on the scene are not
loved or accepted. Though less than one percent of the population
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of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, they still control perhaps 80 percent
of private trade, and hold a preponderant position in the professional
and skilled labor ranks.
B. Asians in Uganda
6. The immediate issue is that of the Asians in Uganda. The
fate of those in Kenya and Tanzania depends to some degree on how
the drama of expulsion is worked out in Kampala. The deadline set
by Amin for the departure of all non-citizen Asians is 8 November.
If the most recent and optimistic calculation of British officials
is correct, all or nearly all of those holding British passports
(about 25,000) will be evacuated to the UK by D-Day. Much more un-
certain is the fate of the stateless Ugandans. These were once
thought to number some 10,000, but some Asians who had considered
themselves citizens are suddenly finding themselves non-citizens
as capricious
,Ugandan officials tear up their papers.
7. Meanwhile, the deterioration of internal security in Uganda
seems to have halted at a point just short of anarchy. Gangs of uniformed
soldiers roam about, bullying the populace, and harassing foreigners.
In these circumstances, it seems remarkable that there has been no
general massacre of Asians. Several hundred have probably been slain
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in the past couple of months, and many others beaten, robbed or
dispossessed, but organized convoys of departing Asians are bussed
daily from Kampala to the international airport at Entebbe, running
a gauntlet of army roadblocks.
8. It is unclear what will happen to the remaining Asians when
8 November rolls around. Amin has at various times spoken of throwing
the leftover Asians into concentration camps, or herding them into a
stadium, or just "dealing with them". In one of his more lucid moments
he recognized that the abrupt departure of all non-citizen Asians would
bring severe disruption to essential services. Hence, a hasty declara-
tion that certain Asians (technicians and skilled workers) would not be
allowed to go. To those affected, this edict was worse than expulsion.
Those Asians remaining in Uganda, with or without citizenship, are likely
to be in for a very rough time. Ugandan citizenship papers will not help
much when Amin needs more scapegoats.
9. The Asian departure is having a decidedly adverse effect on
the functioning of the economy and of services in Uganda. Amin had
justified his expulsion order on the grounds that the Asians were
sabotaging the economy. To the extent that expatriated capital and
profits were draining the country of wealth, he had a point. The
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remedy, however, is likely to make the patient sicker. There are
virtually no African entrepreneurs to take over the commerce of
the country, nor are enough African skills available to keep essen-
tial services functioning. Beyond that, it is no longer possible
to get a haircut in Kampala, and those few Asian businessmen still
in place cannot find any auditors to go over their books. The
Ugandan economy was shaky before Amin came to power, and has deteriorated
steadily since that unfortunate event. There will undoubtedly be
further slippage, but this may not have much immediate political impact.
The sizable subsistence sector of the economy will not be much affected,
and the modern sector is already badly disrupted by irresponsible
government budgeting policies and the decline of internal security.
If Amin is overthrown, it is likely to be for reasons other than
economic mismanagement, or the ouster of the Asians.
C. Asians in Kenya and Tanzania
10. Events in Uganda are casting long shadows over Kenya and
Tanzania. Dislike of the Asians is as strong there as in Uganda.
African frustrations are probably greater in Kenya than in Tanzania,
because the political elite and the Asian commercial and professional
classes are the principal beneficiaries of the national prosperity.
African school graduates are pouring into the urban labor market with
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scant prospects for jobs. A conservative estimate of African
unemployment in Kenya's urban centers puts the figure at 18
percent, and a great many more are only marginally employed.
In Tanzania, a much poorer country, popular expectations are
probably much lower so there is less resentment of the fact
that the Asians control a good deal of the wealth of that
country.
11. There are still perhaps 130,000-140,000 Asians in Kenya
and perhaps half that many in Tanzania. Amin's pronouncement and
mistreatment of Asians in Uganda have made Indians everywhere in
East Africa much more nervous. They have for some time suspected
that their time was short, but.now many are stepping up plans to
emigrate. For some there are pragmatic reasons for closing up shop --
nearly a quarter of Kenya's trade is with Uganda, a trade that is
fast drying up as the Ugandan business community boards planes for
Europe. The economic effects of the Asian ouster from Uganda are
already being felt in Kenya, but the full impact of the Ugandan
economic decline is yet to come.
12. In the months ahead the position of the Asians in Kenya
and Tanzania will become pretty dicey. Amin will boast at great
length, and with considerable effect.about having freed his land of
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the economic saboteurs and leeches. Counter-arguments about the
deleterious effects of the Asian exodus on the Ugandan economy
are not likely to carry much weight. Hence, popular pressures in
Kenya and Tanzania for similar expulsion programs are certain to
rise, along with a stepped up harassment of local Indians. Even
in quieter times, gangs of toughs in Nairobi occasionally raided
Asian quarters, looting shops and beating up hapless merchants.
There is likely to be more of this, along with some ardent.pleas by
Kenyan and Tanzanian politicians for stronger Africanization pro-
grams and more government action against the Asians.
13. Neither Nyerere nor Kenyatta has much love for the Asian
residents, but they do not care to encourage mob violence, and they
have a much better understanding than does Amin of the importance of
the Asian's skills and services. Moreover, Nyerere is serious about
preserving the multiracial aspects of Tanzanian society. Hence, both
rulers are likely to resist pressures for abrupt expulsion.
14. But, as the pressure for ousting Asians builds, Nyerere or
Kenyatta may decide that it is politically advantageous to respond
to their frustrated constituents at the expense of the. Asians. This
could take the form of a general expulsion order, or a speedier ouster
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of some categories of Asians who are already drifting out, or
just More harassment in the hope that this would encourage large
numbers of Asians to leave. The national leaders would be more
likely to adopt policies of this sort if it appeared that the
alteehatives were worse. For example, if the economic stringencies
in Kenya brought on by Uganda's economic troubles become more
extreme, popular discontent could take several directions -- tribal
feuding or resentment against the government. In Tanzania the dissatis-
faction with Nyerere's socialist and egalitarian schemes is considerable.
If this sort of discontent becomes more serious, it would be tempting
for the national leaders to divert popular attention by taking harsher
measures towards the Asians. Therefore, despite the tolerant inclina-
tions of Nyerere and Kenyatta, there is really no assurance that racial
harmony will prevail. Also, the willingness of the UK to lower its
immigration barriers under Ugandan pressure may lead the other East
African leaders to believe tha the time has come to test British
acceptance of some of their own -Asians.
D. The Asian Problem for the UK and Others
15. The decision of Prime Minister Heath to accept those
Ugandan Asians holding British passports is not popular in the
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UK. Even though Heath was able to fend off censure by the Enoch
Powell faction at the recent Conservative Party conclave, there is
a considerable body of British opinion which remains flatly opposed
to further non-European immigration. There are already nearly two
million non-white residents in the UK, mostly East Indians and West
Indians who came in the post-World War II period. In 1967 when large
numbers of Indians holding British passports were encouraged by the
Kenyan Government to leave that country, Prime Minister Wilson
balked at unlimited immigration of Asians and refused to allow more
than a trickle of immigrants.
16. Non-European immigration is a continuing political issue
in Britain with strong economic overtones because of rising unemploy-
ment. In the months since Amin's first expulsion order the British
Government has made great efforts to ease the impact of the Asian
influx. Some Commonwealth nations, most notably Canada, are aiding
the UK by joining the airlift and accepting immigrants. The first
batches of Indians flown to England were quietly hustled off to
towns and communities where their presence would not cause a commo-
tion. But, since the airlift stepped up in recent weeks, thousands
of Asians are temporarily lodged in abandoned World War II barracks,
while the search goes on for homes and jobs for the newcomers.
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Popular opposition to Heath's Ugandan policy is rising, UK officials
are becoming more testy in their dealings with Uganda, and the British
Government is quite unwilling to accept even temporarily any stateless
Asians. The thought of taking in additional thousands of Asians from
elsewhere in East Africa is too appalling for the British even to
contemplate.
17. At the moment some of the 10,000 or so stateless Ugandans
are finding places in Europe, Latin America, Canada, and the US, but
the numbers in each case are pretty small. Countries like Switzerland
and Sweden are willing to take in a couple of hundred, out of humanitarian
concern rather than a need for immigrant skills. A few thousand Ugandan
Asians without UK passports have gone to India and Pakistan. Others
will probably follow, but neither the East African Asians nor the Govern-
ments of India and Pakistan are at all keen on a more general migration
in that direction. If Kenya or Tanzania were to force out large numbers
of Asians, it is highly unlikely that the governments on the Subcontinent
would accept them. Rather the UK would be stuck with the problem and
might seek the aid of the UN and other international agencies. In
these circumstances, the US would probably be called on to assist
financially or to absorb a larger quota of immigrants.
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Confidential
Confidential
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C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
12 October 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
O
John Huizenga
SUBJECT : Supplemental Distribution for MEMORANDUM:
The European Community Summit
Subject to your approval, we would like the following to re-
ceive this Memorandum:
State Department: Dr. Ray S. Cline
Director, Intelligence and Research
Room 6531
MR. Roger J. Stoessel
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of European Affairs
Room 6230
Mr. James S. Sutterlin
Dir/EUR/CE
Room 4230
Mr. Charles R. Tanguy
Dir/EUR/WE
Room 5232A
Mr. Ralph J. McGuire
Dir/EUR/RPM
Mr. Abraham Katz
Dir/EUR/RPE
Room 6517
Ch/EUR/SOV
C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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 e
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Ray S. Cline
Director, INR
A copy of the attached Vlemoranduin has been sent
to Assistant Secretary Stoessel and Directors Jam cGuire and
S. Sutterlin, Charles R. Tanguyf Ralph J? 11
Abraham Katz.
JOHMT 1iUI Z N
Director
National Estimates
12 October 72
'E)
FORM NO. 101
I AUG 54
REPLACES FORM 10.101
WHICH MAY BE USED.
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