CONVERSATION WITH MEMBERS OF ENTHOVEN'S STAFF ON FUTURE MILITARY ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001000010018-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 6, 2005
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: March 1, 1966
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For !Jbriase 2005/07/13.la 79R00967A+1000010018-1
1 March 1966
NN RAND FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Conversation with Members of Enthoven's
Staff on Future Military Estimates
1. On 28 February Ed Proctor and I spent three
hours with Benington, Hoffman, Selin, Niemela, and
Seidel. (see attached chart)
2. In discussing future NIPP work, Hoffman agreed
that full annual revisions of Sections IV-VI (costing,
manpower, and nuclear implications) will not be neces-
sary in the future. His chief interests, as far as new
work is concerned, are intelligence leadtimes, China
NIPP, and East European NIPP, in that order.
3. Selin took a new and fresh line. He asserted
that US planning for strategic offense is extremely
prudent so far as maintaining the assured damage cap-
ability, and that we spend enormous sums for this
purpose to meet all kinds of possible Soviet threats.
Selin would like intelligence tell him some things
the USSR is not going to do, so that he can save some
money. Example: if DoD were told there would be no
Soviet ABM deplo ent before 1972, it would stretch
out (and save on) the Poseidon program and skip its
first-generation MIRV, which has many limitations, in
order to develop a second-generation version which has
already been thought out.
4. Selin identified ABM and MIRV (including CEP)
as his key problems, of far more interest than numbers
of missiles, mobility, hardness, etc. Niemela had very
little to say.
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5. These fellows want to work very closely with
CIA on some new projects, and claim they're willing to
make inputs. Selin is interested in starting a big
interaction study and in getting us to undertake a
new kind of targeting study. We were cool on these
specifics but warm on cooperation.
6. The next move is up to them. They (Selin)
will prepare a list of the assumptions which they
habitually make (usually implicitly) about the USSR
in approaching their own planning and bring it out
to Langley for the next discussion. Our side should
include Proctor, ONE, ORR, JAG, and possibly OSI.
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/13 : CIA-RDP79R00967A001000010018-1
Approved For Release 2005/07/13 : CIA-RDP79R00967A001000010018-1