PANAMA AND OUR SNIE ABOUT IT*

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001200010029-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2005
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: September 11, 1967
• Content Type: NOTES

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S-E-C-R-E-T
11 September 1967
1. The keynote of our SNIE on Panama, published on
4 May 1967, was a warning of serious trouble in store as the
Panamanian presidential campaign and the issue of new Canal
treaties impinged on a situation none too stable in the first
place. We would like to echo that warning now.
2. The estimate discussed the interactions of the treaties
and Panamanian politics in terms of three possible scenarios:
Case A, in which negotiation of the treaties was completed and
President Robles submitted them to a special session of the
Panamanian Assembly by September 1967; Case B. in which the
negotiations were completed before the election in May 1968 but
the treaties not submitted for ratification; and Case C, in which
the negotiations were not completed before the election. We con-
cluded that Case B would be the one with the greatest disadvantages,
as concerns both the prospects for the treaties and for stability
in Panama. Now, the course of actual events has swept by Case A,
and brought us smack up to Case B.
OCI is preparing a memorandum noting and commenting on recent
developments in Panama.. We have reviewed this memorandum and
find it excellent.
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3. Since President Robles himself has not yet signed the
draft treaties, he still has a way out -- and a way which may
appeal to him politically whatever it may do to the chances of
obtaining reasonable Canal treaties with the US. He can receive
the report of the Panamanian advisory council which has been re-
viewing the draft treaties, and announce that on close examination
they are found to be unfair to Panama in important respects. He
can then propose a new round of negotiations.
4. Such tactics would tend to focus Panamanian criticism
on the US and away from the Robles government. This would be
particularly so (and particularly useful to Robles politically)
in the event the US should refuse to renew negotiations or, once
renewed, should break them off quickly. If, on the other hand,
Robles managed to keep some vestige of negotiations going until
after the elections, he would have avoided one key disadvantage
of Case B and taken on instead the lesser political problems of
Case C. However difficult those problems, at least the candidates
of the coalition Robles supports would not have to defend the
draft treaties as their de facto platform.
5. In any case, we must look ahead to a period of new
friction in US-Panamanian relations. With the possibilities of
Case A gone by the boards, there is small chance of getting
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satisfactory treaties completed until after a new administration
takes office in October 1968. An increase in anti-US sentiment
in Panama is likely as the election campaign there becomes hotter,
and, if Robles does take the course noted above, the increase
would be large. Thus (to quote from the SNIE): "The danger of
serious disorders will probably become somewhat greater than at
present, and could become much greater."
25X1
S-E-C R-E-T
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MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director
Here is a note by our Latin America Staff
Chief on Panama and our recent SNIE. You may
wish to have it by you in case/the matter comes
up at the SIG.
25X1
12 September 1967
(DATE)
FORM NO. IOI REPLACES FORM 10-101
I AUG 54 WHICH MAY BE USED.
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