TRENDS IN ICBM DEPLOYMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001200010041-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2005
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: June 30, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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Approved For Release 2005/07/13 CR00967A00120
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30 June 1967
Director of National Estimates
Trends in ICBM Deployment
1. This is in response to your question at this morning's
Board and Staff meeting regarding the need for a Me to Holders
of N7 11-8-66. The document which was the hems for your query
was the 0 paper titled "New Trend in Soviet 1C4 Deployment
Programs . "
2. The facts as we now see them are that the construction
time required to bring SS-11 and SS>.9 launch groups to operational
status has been shorter than we estimated in 11-8-66. Thf=
effect of this is to bring the total number of IC1 launchers
operational in. mid-1968 to about 900 which is about 17 percent
more than the high side (765) of the spread estimated for that
date in 11-8-66. Countering this change is the evidence
Indicating that during the last half of 1966 and conti=ing to
the present, construction, starts of S8-1l silos have been cut back
more than 50 percent from the high rate attained in the first
half of 1966. Zn l i g h t of this, there is general agreement in
the community that the latest phase of the 88-l1 deployment program
may be coming to an err!. If this sharp reduction in construction
starts signifies the end of the SS-11 deployment program, the total
number
f 1C
o
launchers operational in mid-1969 would still be
projected at about 900 or, in other words, almost right in the
middle of the &-1010 range which we projected for mid-1969 in
NI'PP-67. If., however, the deployment of SS.11s continues at the
present low rate, the mmber of ICBM launchers operational in mid-
would be near the high side of the NIPP-67 range.
I Would like to point out that in the 11-8 series th
, e
projections of ICBM strengths have always reflected a smooth deploy-
ment curve based on evidence in hand. The actual Soviet deployment
programs have been characterized by starts and stops resulting in
a very erratic curve. We are unable to forecast where or when these
eberations will occur. Furthermore, i would like to emphasize that,
in my view, when the Soviet ICBM force reaches near parity with
that of the US, the precise number of launchers is of secondary im-
" ? ' s ce,
-$-67 will address itself to this matter. o
f
F DP79R00967A0012000100 -3 ac 's +iica+on is
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4.. in m ms it is my view that ME. 11-8-CZ was a good ectirate
rred as to the precise time vhe, 900 Mt," 1aunchers would
operational but which was correct in esstis tii Vitt the
4eplr tsent program ' uld probably have been completed by
969-1970. For these reasons, and consider that Na 11-8-67 i
due out in about 01ree months, I strongly recs end that e esto
to Holders of NM 11-8-66 not be issued at this time.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/07/13 :' CIA-RDP'79R00967A001200010041-3