PROPOSED TOPICS FOR MEMORANDA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020007-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 8, 1970
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
8 December 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Deputy Director for Science & Technology
Deputy Director for Plans
SUBJECT: Proposed Topics for Memoranda
This listing cannot be all-inclusive. Undoubtedly we
will be producing additional memoranda on short deadlines to
meet requests by the Director and/or policy-making officials.
We will also be preparing and circulating staff notes and other
highly informal papers within ONE -- and, in some cases to in-
terested analysts elsewhere -- for the purpose of testing
hypotheses, stimulating debate and exploring new lines of
thought.
Chief, Estimates Staff
National Estimates
1 - D/OBGI GROUP 1
1 - D/FBIS Excluded from automatic
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Distribution:
1 - Addressees
1 - D/OCI
1-DOER
1 - D/OSR
1 - D/SRS
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
8 December 1970
SUBJECT: Proposed Topics for Memoranda
1. THE HUNTINGTON THESIS AND TEE REVOLU- December
TIONARY PROCESS IN LATIN AMERICA
(This will be an effort to review (Coord: OCI,
and refine the approach taken in the DDP)
NTEs on the Potential for Revolution in
Latin America 968 and 196 41/
2. BLACK AFRICAN ATTITUDES TOWARD THE UK December
AND THE COMMONWEALTH
(This piece will explore the (Coord: OCT
changing attitudes of Black African OER,, DDP)
states, particularly the ex-British
colonies, toward the UK. An assess-
ment will be made of their likely
policies toward the UK and the Common-
wealth as the British move toward
accommodation with White minority
regimes in southern Africa.)
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
S-E-C-R-E-T declassification
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3. REPERCUSSIONS OF THE ATTACK ON GUINEA December
(The aftermath of the "invasion", (Coord: OCir
as it is likely to affect Sekou Toure's DDP)
position, black African attitudes to-
wards the West, Houphouet-Doigny's
proposal for dialogue with southern
Africa, and the psychological impact
on Africans of lath century gunboat
diplomacy,)
4. THE WORLD WATCHES CHILE December
(The probable course of events in (Coord; OCI,
Chile, and particularly their repercus - OER, DDP)
sions on neighboring states, on other
Latin American Communist parties, Commu-
nist parties elsewhere, the US and the
USSE.)
5. THE TOLL OF TIME ON CHINA'S LEADERSHIP December
(We still want to have a try at (Coord: OCI,
this subject. Our focus will be on the SRS, DDP)
implications for China of its continuing
dependence upon an aged and dwindling
band of top leaders . )
6. INTELLECTUAL PROTEST IN TIM USSR January
(An attempt to look at this. (Coord: OCI,
particular phenomenon in a new way -- SRS, DDP)
to explore angles and aspects not
frequently discussed. How is dissent
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evolving, whom does it involve, and
where may it be leading? Is the
regimens reaction to it symptomatic
of its attitude toward other problems
domestic and foreign? Is the regime
likely to magnify the problem and does
it run the risk of alienating key
elements of the Soviet intellectual
class ffncluding some within the
establishment]? We have read OCI's
recent paper of Intellectual Dissent
in the USSR, and we feel there is ample
room for the different sort of paper we
have in mind.)
7. PROSPECTS FOR YUGOSLAVIA January
(This will focus of internal and (Coord: OCI,
external prospects after Tito. Our view OER, DDP)
is, we suspect, somewhat less gloomy than
that held by many.)
8. INTER-ARAB RELATIONS AFTER NASSER January
(A first cut at the future shape of (Coord: OCII
the Arab world without its dominating OER, DDP)
figure of the past 15 years. It will
examine the degree of Arab solidarity
to be anticipated in the near future;
the extent of Egyptian influence in
affecting the internal politics and
the international relations of other
Arab states; the prospects for the
so-called union among Egypt, Sudan,
Libya, and Syria.)
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January
(Coord: OCI,
DDP)
10. PROSPECTS FOR THE MEDICI REGIME IN BRAZIL January/February
(This memo would discuss the new (Coord: CCI,
regime's achievements over the past year, OER, DDP)
and focus on the problems of the Church-
State relationship, the role of the mili-
tary, and the torture of political
prisoners. It would speculate on the
development of the government's image,
its popularity, social reform, and polit-
ical institutions.)
January/February
(A review of events which are beginning (Coord: OCI,
to change the tenor of the Thai US relation- OER,. DDP)
ship, and some comments on Thai options and
choices. This will be a first cirh at the
proposed NIE on Thailand . We understand
that CCI is planning a paper on Thai Foreign
Policy, and we hope that that too will be a
useful input for the Estimate.
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12. PEKING'S STRATEGIC STANCE AND POLICY January/February
PRIORITIES
(This will speculate about the (Coord: OCI,
broad strategic concepts probably OSR, SRS; DDP)
held by China's top leaders and how
recent Chinese advances in technical
and military spheres seem to fit Lr
not fig this conceptual pattern. Can
we draw any inferences as to future
Chinese priorities?)
13. THE GDR AND OSTPOLITIK
February
(Brandt's Ostpolitik poses some (Coord: OCI,
especially delicate and difficult OER, DDP)
problems for East Germany; relations
with the USSR, the rest of Eastern
Europe, and, of course, Bonn itself
are involved. This paper would identify
the issues and ponder their implications
for the future . )
14. NORTHERNERS AND BLACKS IN AFRICA -- WILL February
ARMED CONFLICT SPREAD?
(Arab Sudanese have been fighting a (Coor3: OCI,,
rebellion of non Muslim blacks for the past OER, DDP)
seven or eight years; Arabs in Chad trouble
Tombalbaye's government; Eritreans, backed
by Syria and Iraq, fight for separation from
Ethiopia. The memorandum would examine the
reasons for the conflicts (including any
common factors), the prospects for each,
and the likelihood of similar ones elsewhere
along the interface between northerners and
blacks in Africa.)
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15. PROSPECTS FOR COMMUNIST CHINA IN BLACK AFRICA February/March
(This memo would assess the Chinese (Coord: OCI,
prospects for improving their position in OER, DDP)
black Africa in the light of current initia-
tives by Peking in diplomacy and economic
aid, and the deteriorating relations of some
African states with the West.)
16. LEFT AND RIGHT IN BOLIVIAN POLITICS March
(A look at the "revolutionary" govern- (Coord: OCI,
ment of General Torres and the significance DDP)
of "leftists" in the Bolivian context. We
will examine the position of the Torres
overnment in relation to the leftist forces
Llabor and student on the one hand and the
military on the other hand, and assess the
future course of the Torres government and
the implications for the US.)
17. MIiCO AND THE US March
(Publicity about US military installa- (Coord: OCI,
tions could trouble US-Moroccan relations. DDP)
The King is annoyed because the local opposi-
tion is using the issue to embarrass him.
The timing of this paper would depend on the
course of events, including US Moroccan
discussion.)
18. TURKEY March
(An update of the domestic political (Coord: OCI,
portions of NIE 29.2-70, "Turkey Over the OER, DDP)
Next Five Years." Demirel retains his
position by an uncomfoeFlably narrow _ .
parliamentary margin. The paper will
assess his and his partyvs prospects over
the next few years.)
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