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December 19, 2016
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November 21, 2005
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December 8, 1970
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Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AO04 00020007-8 S-E-C-R-E-T C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y 8 December 1970 MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence Deputy Director for Science & Technology Deputy Director for Plans SUBJECT: Proposed Topics for Memoranda This listing cannot be all-inclusive. Undoubtedly we will be producing additional memoranda on short deadlines to meet requests by the Director and/or policy-making officials. We will also be preparing and circulating staff notes and other highly informal papers within ONE -- and, in some cases to in- terested analysts elsewhere -- for the purpose of testing hypotheses, stimulating debate and exploring new lines of thought. Chief, Estimates Staff National Estimates 1 - D/OBGI GROUP 1 1 - D/FBIS Excluded from automatic Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R@QQ?j14R0&A007-8 S-E-C-R-E-T declassification Distribution: 1 - Addressees 1 - D/OCI 1-DOER 1 - D/OSR 1 - D/SRS Approved For Release' 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020007-8 S.E-C-R-E-T C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES 8 December 1970 SUBJECT: Proposed Topics for Memoranda 1. THE HUNTINGTON THESIS AND TEE REVOLU- December TIONARY PROCESS IN LATIN AMERICA (This will be an effort to review (Coord: OCI, and refine the approach taken in the DDP) NTEs on the Potential for Revolution in Latin America 968 and 196 41/ 2. BLACK AFRICAN ATTITUDES TOWARD THE UK December AND THE COMMONWEALTH (This piece will explore the (Coord: OCT changing attitudes of Black African OER,, DDP) states, particularly the ex-British colonies, toward the UK. An assess- ment will be made of their likely policies toward the UK and the Common- wealth as the British move toward accommodation with White minority regimes in southern Africa.) GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and S-E-C-R-E-T declassification Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020007-8 Approved For Relea 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AO044400020007-8 S-E-C -R-E-T 3. REPERCUSSIONS OF THE ATTACK ON GUINEA December (The aftermath of the "invasion", (Coord: OCir as it is likely to affect Sekou Toure's DDP) position, black African attitudes to- wards the West, Houphouet-Doigny's proposal for dialogue with southern Africa, and the psychological impact on Africans of lath century gunboat diplomacy,) 4. THE WORLD WATCHES CHILE December (The probable course of events in (Coord; OCI, Chile, and particularly their repercus - OER, DDP) sions on neighboring states, on other Latin American Communist parties, Commu- nist parties elsewhere, the US and the USSE.) 5. THE TOLL OF TIME ON CHINA'S LEADERSHIP December (We still want to have a try at (Coord: OCI, this subject. Our focus will be on the SRS, DDP) implications for China of its continuing dependence upon an aged and dwindling band of top leaders . ) 6. INTELLECTUAL PROTEST IN TIM USSR January (An attempt to look at this. (Coord: OCI, particular phenomenon in a new way -- SRS, DDP) to explore angles and aspects not frequently discussed. How is dissent Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AO01400020007-8 Approved For Relea&e 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967A004400020007-8 S-E-C-R-E-T evolving, whom does it involve, and where may it be leading? Is the regimens reaction to it symptomatic of its attitude toward other problems domestic and foreign? Is the regime likely to magnify the problem and does it run the risk of alienating key elements of the Soviet intellectual class ffncluding some within the establishment]? We have read OCI's recent paper of Intellectual Dissent in the USSR, and we feel there is ample room for the different sort of paper we have in mind.) 7. PROSPECTS FOR YUGOSLAVIA January (This will focus of internal and (Coord: OCI, external prospects after Tito. Our view OER, DDP) is, we suspect, somewhat less gloomy than that held by many.) 8. INTER-ARAB RELATIONS AFTER NASSER January (A first cut at the future shape of (Coord: OCII the Arab world without its dominating OER, DDP) figure of the past 15 years. It will examine the degree of Arab solidarity to be anticipated in the near future; the extent of Egyptian influence in affecting the internal politics and the international relations of other Arab states; the prospects for the so-called union among Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and Syria.) -3- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020007-8 Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AOO 00020007-8 S-E-C-R-E-T January (Coord: OCI, DDP) 10. PROSPECTS FOR THE MEDICI REGIME IN BRAZIL January/February (This memo would discuss the new (Coord: CCI, regime's achievements over the past year, OER, DDP) and focus on the problems of the Church- State relationship, the role of the mili- tary, and the torture of political prisoners. It would speculate on the development of the government's image, its popularity, social reform, and polit- ical institutions.) January/February (A review of events which are beginning (Coord: OCI, to change the tenor of the Thai US relation- OER,. DDP) ship, and some comments on Thai options and choices. This will be a first cirh at the proposed NIE on Thailand . We understand that CCI is planning a paper on Thai Foreign Policy, and we hope that that too will be a useful input for the Estimate. -4 - Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AO01400020007-8 Approved For Relese 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967A00-l00020007-8 S.-E-C-R-E-uT 12. PEKING'S STRATEGIC STANCE AND POLICY January/February PRIORITIES (This will speculate about the (Coord: OCI, broad strategic concepts probably OSR, SRS; DDP) held by China's top leaders and how recent Chinese advances in technical and military spheres seem to fit Lr not fig this conceptual pattern. Can we draw any inferences as to future Chinese priorities?) 13. THE GDR AND OSTPOLITIK February (Brandt's Ostpolitik poses some (Coord: OCI, especially delicate and difficult OER, DDP) problems for East Germany; relations with the USSR, the rest of Eastern Europe, and, of course, Bonn itself are involved. This paper would identify the issues and ponder their implications for the future . ) 14. NORTHERNERS AND BLACKS IN AFRICA -- WILL February ARMED CONFLICT SPREAD? (Arab Sudanese have been fighting a (Coor3: OCI,, rebellion of non Muslim blacks for the past OER, DDP) seven or eight years; Arabs in Chad trouble Tombalbaye's government; Eritreans, backed by Syria and Iraq, fight for separation from Ethiopia. The memorandum would examine the reasons for the conflicts (including any common factors), the prospects for each, and the likelihood of similar ones elsewhere along the interface between northerners and blacks in Africa.) -5 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AO01400020007-8 Approved For Relwe 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP79R00967AOG #00020007-8 S-E-C-R-E-T 15. PROSPECTS FOR COMMUNIST CHINA IN BLACK AFRICA February/March (This memo would assess the Chinese (Coord: OCI, prospects for improving their position in OER, DDP) black Africa in the light of current initia- tives by Peking in diplomacy and economic aid, and the deteriorating relations of some African states with the West.) 16. LEFT AND RIGHT IN BOLIVIAN POLITICS March (A look at the "revolutionary" govern- (Coord: OCI, ment of General Torres and the significance DDP) of "leftists" in the Bolivian context. We will examine the position of the Torres overnment in relation to the leftist forces Llabor and student on the one hand and the military on the other hand, and assess the future course of the Torres government and the implications for the US.) 17. MIiCO AND THE US March (Publicity about US military installa- (Coord: OCI, tions could trouble US-Moroccan relations. DDP) The King is annoyed because the local opposi- tion is using the issue to embarrass him. The timing of this paper would depend on the course of events, including US Moroccan discussion.) 18. TURKEY March (An update of the domestic political (Coord: OCI, portions of NIE 29.2-70, "Turkey Over the OER, DDP) Next Five Years." Demirel retains his position by an uncomfoeFlably narrow _ . parliamentary margin. The paper will assess his and his partyvs prospects over the next few years.) Approved For Release 2005/12/14-: GIA-RDP79R00967A001400020007-8