THE 1970 SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020023-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: May 11, 1970
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/07/27: CIA-RDP79R00967A001400020023-0
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
11 May 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. David Mark. State (INR)
SUBJECT : The 1970 Soviet Military Estimates
1. During the past several months we have received sugges-
tions and recommendations concerning the forthcoming annual
military estimates from the Secretary of State, the Secretary
of Defense, and the White House Staff. We have also had discussions
with the Director of Central Intelligence and generally within the
Agency.
2. It is clear that this year's papers will have to be
very much more detailed and voluminous than they have ever been
before. There is a stated requirement for more detail, more
argument, more history, more graphs and charts, and more extensive
presentation of the analyses on which estimates rest. We shall
certainly have to seek ways to speed the coordination of the
drafts.
3. Partly for this reason we are, with the approval of the
Director, making some changes in the organization of the respective
papers, adding two new ones:
a. NIE 11-8 will be entitled Soviet Forces for Inter-
Continental Attack. It will correspond to previous versions
of NIE 11-6, but will omit consideration of MRBM's, IRBM's,
medium bombers, etc., except as some allusions to such systems
may be necessary. (Scheduled for 1 September)
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
MORI/CDF
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b. NIE 11-3-70 on Soviet Strategic Defense Forces
will be essentially unchanged in content, except hat on
the request of the White House Staff Soviet ASW capabilities
will be included. (Scheduled for 1 October)
c. NIE 11-14-70 on Soviet Forces for Attack in Eurasia
will contain most of what has been in previous versions of
NIE 11-14, plus MRB.Y 's, IRBM's, medium bombers, etc., but
will exclude some few sections which have discussed forces
for distant military action. (Scheduled for November-
December)
d. NIE 11-10-70, a new paper, will cover Soviet
capabilities for using military forces in distant areas --
primarily in the "third world." Most of the hardware will
be covered in NIE 11-14-70; this paper will deal with some
appects of airlift and sea lift, with the problem of bases,
communications, support, etc., and with political
considerations (Scheduled'for December)
e. We also have requests for a much shorter NIE
designed for the highest level of policy-makers, which
will present in relatively brief compass the general
conclusions of NIE ll-8 and 11-3 with some indications
of supporting evidence and analysts, and with such other
broad considerations as may be appropriate. (Scheduled
probably for October-November)
4. We are prepared to discuss these projects with representa-
tives at a meeting to consider terms of reference for NIE 11-8-70.
These terms of reference will be circulated within a few days.
ABBOT SMITH
Director
DISTRIBUTION B MILITARY
cc: Colonel J. D. Foulk, USA (ACSI)
Captain Luther E. Mayes, USN
Colonel F. J. Mackey, USAF (AFNIE)
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