CHILE: BUT WHAT IF THERE IS A MILITARY COUP?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001500040008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2006
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: August 31, 1972
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/03/0 EC,I RnP79R00967AO01500040008-4
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
31 August
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Chile: But What if There is a Military Coup?*
1972
A new round of political street clashes and renewed
reporting of coup plotting serve to call attention once again
to the prospects for the Allende regime in Chile. The major
judgments of the recent estimate (NIE 94-72: "Chile: The
Alternatives Facing the Allende Regime," 29 June 1972) appear
to be in better shape than Dr. Allende's political and economic
programs. We still believe that a military coup to overthrow
Allende is unlikely, at least between now and the March 1973
congressional election. But, as indicated in the estimate,
certain contingencies, such as a breakdown in public order or
an attempt by Allende to subvert the constitution, could con-
siderably increase the chances for a coup. The main purpose of
this Memorandum is to assess the factors likely to influence
the character of a coup -- if there is one.
This paper has been discussed with other components within
CIA, but has not been formally coordinated.
SECRET
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1 September 1972
1 September 1972 '
TO: Harvey Summ
Room 7533 - State
I am sending you for your background
use a. Memo on Chile we did for our
Director because of the recent reporting
on political tensions and coup plotting.
As you can see we have not changed the
basic estimates on the recent NIE 94-72.
TO: Dan Bowen
Room 4328 - Treasury
I am sending you for your background
use a Memo on Chile we did for our
Director because of the recent reporting
on political tensions and coup plotting.
As you can see we have not changed the
basic estimates on the recent NIE 94-72.
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1 Septernbr,r 19972
SUBJECT: Other Outside Distribution of MEMORANDUM: Chile: But
What if There is a Military Coup?
STATE: Mr. John H. Crimmins (ARA)
Mr. G. Harvey Summ (INR)
Mr. Ray Cline (INR)
NSC: Mr. Kennedy
Mr. William Jorden
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 Approved For ReJe se Z007/Q3(08 T CIA.-RDP79R00967A001500040008-4
Sept. o' .;, _ ot7zp 5262
wsec copy of r,::.__ ...:.ciur, 11 that I
National Estimate : i 'epaz -d. or the
c, o: of entr. a Intel ,c L e _ . ~`:...ause of,-she
a.__ coup
ttir- :gin, Chile son a c~ T john CrimmYrs'
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Col. Richard Kennedy
NSC Staff
Mr. Helms suggested to me that you might find
this piece of interest.
JOHN HUT ZENGAA
Director
National Estimates
1 September 1972
(DATE)
FORM NO. REPLACES FORM 'i0.40'.
. AUG 54 1~s WHICH MAY bt uSED
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