SURVEY OF NIE DISSEMINATION AND USE

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CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3
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RIPPUB
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C
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69
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December 16, 2016
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April 6, 2005
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17
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August 7, 1956
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STUDY
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0 Approved For PA,{pase f NMJV, 00971 A0'a04000Z0017;3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 IAC-Approved 7 August 1956 I N T E L L I G E N C E ADVISORY C O M M I T T E E Survey of NIE Dissemination and Use References: IAC-D-94 and IAC-M-186, item 4 1. The attached Survey of NIE Dissemination and Use was prepared by the Board of National Estimates pursuant to IAC-D-94. a. That the IAC note this report. b. That each member of the IAC reexamine its pattern of NIE distribution with the end of continuing to improve the usefulness of NIE's to the policy, planning and executive branches of his agency. c. That each IAC agency undertake to brief new key officials--(NIE consumers) within its department on the nature of the NIE and the means at the disposal of these officials for initiating NIE's responsive to specific intelligence problems they may have. d. That the IAC agencies continue to work toward remedying the limitations noted in paragraph 9 of the Conclusions and submit for IAC consideration any proposals they may have for doing so. 3. On 7 August 1956, the IAC noted the Board's report and approved the above recommejdations. 25X1 Secretary Approved For Release - A 25X1 Approved For Rase 2005/ITOWID%pQt P79R00971AO0400020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 SURVEY OF NIE DISSEMINATION AND USE Prepared by the Board of National Estimates Central Intelligence Agency Approved For Release 2005/C8airQIY P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For R ease 2005/Ct4U t MQP79R00971A 0400020017-3 IAC-D- 94/1 10 July 1956 This Survey of NIE Dissemination)/and Use was initially suggested by the Board of National Estimates, which believed that in the light of four years' experience with the production of National Intelligence Estimates, it was worthwhile to conduct an informal survey of the use which various consumers outside the intelligence community itself made of NIE's. The Director of Central Intelli- gence proposed that the Board undertake such a survey and report its findings to the IAC (IAC-D-94). The IAC concurred in this procedure on 1 March 1955 (IAC-M-186, 1 March 1955). The survey was conducted by the Board of National Estimates in cooperation with the IAC agencies, in two stages. The first stage was a written questionnaire to all offices and agencies receiving NIE's which was designed to reveal the extent to which these estimates re- ceived further dissemination within each agency. The results are summarized in Part I (see Tab A for a list of those participating). 1/ Dissemination is used herein to mean the delivery of the printed NIE, i. e., direct dissemination. Approved For Release 2005/ IYFI rJA 79R00971A000400020017-3 Cuuut Approved For Rase 2005/ WI P79R00971A1 O400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 The second stage was a series of interviews with a representative sample of final consumers?/ to ascertain what use they actually made of NIE's. Members and representatives of the Board of National Estimates interviewed more than 75 representative end-users in all receiving departments, offices, and. agencies except the Department of the Navy, and the Department of Defense (see Tab B for those inter- viewed). ONI and the Joint Intelligence Group preferred that sample inquiries or interviews addressed to those consumers to whom they disseminated NIE's be conducted by them (see Tab C for a list of offices contacted). Because of differing methods and this division of responsibility for the second stage, the results did not prove wholly comparable. In addition to the interviews in Washington, letter inquiries were sent by the appropriate IAC agencies to representative consumers outside of Washington (see Tab D for list of those contacted by letter). The results of the second stage of the survey are summarized in Parts II and III. 2/ "Final Consumer" and "end-users" are used to mean a senior or responsible officer at the receiving agency who might use national intelligence in the discharge of his duties. The survey did not cover the extensive use of NIE's within the intelligence community. Approved For Release 2005/(14/ ~p MP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rgase 2005/@diW47:BQP79R00971A0400020017-3 IAC-B-94/ 1 10 July 1956 The following limitations on the survey should be borne in mind: a. It was not designed to obtain opinions regarding the adequacy of NIE content or judgments on possible changes to make NIE's more useful. b. The number of valid over-all generalizations that can be made is limited by the variations in the survey coverage of the agencies and departments, the different types of NIE's, and the uses to which they are put. The primary goal of the survey was the limited one of establishing the distribution pattern of NIE's and of shedding light on the kinds of uses to which they are put. The cut-off date for information on which this report is based was 20 April 1956. Approved For Release 20051 1 f P79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For R se 2005/Qa4DWg P79R00971A 400020017-3 TAC-D-94/l 10 July 1956 1, An average of 249 NIE's3/ are distributed on a regular basis to the White House, the National Security Council, the Operations Coordinating Board, and the major departments and agencies with national security responsibilities. Many of these are further distributed to major commands and missions outside Washington, both overseas and in the US. Selected NIE's go to the US Information Agency, the Federal Civil Defense Agency, the Department of Commerce, and 25X1 2. In most of these agencies, nearly all NIE's are distributed to offices with over-all responsibilities in the national security field, and selected NIE's are disseminated to lower echelons with narrower responsibilities on a need-to-know basis. NIE's also receive substantial indirect dissemination in most agencies through being incorporated, attributed or unattributed, in staff briefings memoranda, or in materials assembled for work on specific problems. 3/ Number of Top Secret NIE's distributed is less; see footnote 4 on page 10. Approved For Release 20051cbk~ NP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rose 2005/Cu WtD P79R00971At 400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 3. Most top-level executives (the President and Department or Agency heads) see only the relatively few NIE's which are selected for them by their intelligence and screening officers, and then they usually read only the conclusions, briefs, or selected portions. The exceptions are most likely to be those NIE's dealing with crisis situations requiring urgent and high-level policy decisions. 4. However, NIE's are extensively read by second and third echelon officials in the White House staff and in the NSC and OGB staffs, which require coordinated national intelligence in dealing with national security problems which transcend the interests of a single agency or department. 5. NIE's are also used in major departments and agencies by various staffs responsible for national security planning and execution. The extent of use tends to vary according to the applicability and time- liness of a given NIE to the problem at hand, the user's access to alternative or complementary sources of intelligence, and the degree to which the users are concerned with problems transcending the interests of their respective departments or agencies. Approved For Release 2005/864*P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rgse 2005/Q4b1tt P79R00971Ao 400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 6. However, aside from possible indirect dissemination, it appears that some NIE's do not reach all of the departmental policy or planning levels or other key officials who might find them useful. Some of those interviewed indicated that they had not seen particular NIE's which appeared pertinent to their responsibilities. In some instances, this appeared to result from the failure of those in their immediate offices to pass the NIE's on to their chiefs; in others, the criteria for distribution appeared to be overly restrictive. 7. Although a number of NIE's are used in working on specific planning and policy problems, they are more generally used for back- ground purposes. In addition, the distribution of the collective judgments of the intelligence community at nearly all levels of the government performs a function that is important, though quantitatively difficult to measure, in facilitating both the formulation and execution of national security policy. 8. The majority of NIE users interviewed indicated that the format and problem coverage of NIE's are generally adequate for their purposes, though many expressed dissatisfaction with certain aspects Approved For Release 2005IejD *MP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/COAWtt MPP79R00971Ab1'0400020017-3 I.AC -D- 94/ 1 10 July 1956 of some NIE's. The survey obtained such expressions of opinion only as a by-product, and there is not sufficient evidence to serve as a basis for recommending changes. 9. Some of the limitations on NIE use mentioned in the survey a. Some NIE's are too long to permit their being read in full by top-level executives, and even by some interested executives in the support echelons. b. On the other hand, the generality of some NIE's limits their usefulness, especially to lower echelons responsible for detailed foreign policy planning and execution. C. Some NIE's are not relevant or timely enough for use in working on specific policy problems. d. Some officials feel that if NIE's placed more emphasis on the consequence of US courses of action they would be of more use in weighing the advantages or disadvantages of various alternative courses open to the US. Approved For Release 20051e WJRP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Base 2005/88ajD~*-P79R00971AQ040002001T-AC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES 1. Initial Dissemination. CIA undertakes the printing and initial dissemination of National Intelligence Estimates (NIE's) once they have been approved by the IAC. Normally, 316 copies of each Secret NIE4/ are printed. Of this total, some 67 are retained within CIA for central reference, vital document storage, and reserve. The remaining 2495/ copies are initially disseminated as follows:- Navy (25) State 1(2p) Defense (21) 'Ind. ente AEC (4) (2) Air (31) ICA (3) Army ;(50) CIA (66) (1) NSC* (16) House (6) , TOTAL - 249 OCB (4) `Includes the members of the NSC, the Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the NSC Secretariat and Staff. Approved For Release 2005/04/13gCJA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For RJase 2005/t F1t P79R00971AQ x400020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 25X1 2. Onward Dissemination. The copies of each NIE are de- livered en bloc to the receiving agencies, which are responsible for onward dissemination to selected officials or officers in Washington, elsewhere in the US and outside the country. In all the receiving agencies which have an intelligence staff, that component receives the NIE's initially, retains a certain number for its own use, and forward, Flow of NIE'=s Intelligence Staffs US Missions & Hdqtrs. Potential End-Users in Washington Selected Foreign Gover m eats 26 t *All breakdowns are based on total number of copies of Secret NIE's normally printed. A11'figures are approximate. Outside Washington in Washington -9- Approved For Release 2005/8&Mlbi*aQP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For eF lase 2005/@@$#WfQP79R0097lW400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 the remainder to selected recipients according to the problem, area, or subject addressed. The intelligence component is also responsible for enforcing any special restrictions on NIE onward dissemination. No standard distribution list for NIE's is used by any of the receiving agencies, but certain officers are always on the list for all NIE's. In the receiving agencies without a full-time intelligence staff, NIE's usually go to a designated officer who performs the onward dissemination and general control functions. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/ of FRP79R00971A000400020017-3 'CO Approved For Rase 2005/MWi P79R00971A.W0400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 3. Retention in Intelligence Staffs. Of the Z49 copies of each NIE normally delivered to the receiving agencies in Washington, about 93 copies are retained in the intelligence areas or staffs. The average number of copies retained is as follows: Approved For Release 2005/EbiLlloP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/Q6-$ I1 4TIP79R00971A 0400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 In addition to those copies retained by the intelligence staffs of the IAC agencies, a few copies are retained by the small intelligence staffs of various non-IAC recipients. For example, the copy sent to the President is normally retained by the Staff Secretary for Intelligence, two copies are kept in the Intelligence Staff of the Operations Coordinating Board, one in the International Cooperation Administration, and one in the National Indications Center. 4. NIE Delivery to Potential End-Users in Washington. Ordinarily, 99 copies are forwarded to potential end-users in Washington. An examination of the distribution of these copies provides additional information of a general nature on who uses NIE's and what uses are actually made of them. An average of 74 of these copies are sent to potential end-users in the IAC agencies (see chart). Nearly all the 25 copies forwarded to potential end-users outside the IAC agencies go to officers in the area of the government primarily concerned with the final stages of policy formulation. Of these, 5 copies go to the White House and the President's Special Assistants, 18 go to the National Security Council and the Operations Coordinating Board, and 2 go to the International Cooperation Administration. Approved For Release 2005/ 'pFi ojaP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For R lie se 2005/LD#J$#gfBQP79R00971A4000200117A3C-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 Thus, of the 99 copies forwarded to potential end-users in Washington, about three-fourths go via IAC members to officers in their respective departments who are concerned with either the formulation or the execution of US foreign policy. Nearly all the rest of the NIE's go to officers in the area of the government primarily concerned with the final stages of US foreign policy formulation and decision. To Potential End-Users in Washington NSC (16) Army '(23) OCB (2) ' House & Special Thite (5) Defense (15) Air (12) (1) BI AEC (2) ICA (2) CIA (4) State (7) Navy (10) TOTAL - 99 _ 13 - Approved For Release 2005/86&+r*P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/& 'Y!'Q1W ll4P79R00971AW400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 5. NIE Dissemination Outside Washington. Normally, 57 copies of NIE's are forwarded to US missions or headquarters outside Washington, most of them outside the country. About 45 copies are ordinarily sent to US officers who are stationed in overseas installations or who represent the US in international organizations; the remainder are sent to military commands in the US outside of Washington. These NIE's are forwarded'by the responsible IAC agency according to the area and the problem covered. Of the total so delivered, the Department of State normally sends about 9 copies, the Department of the Army, about 17, the Department of the Navy, 7, the Department of the Air Force, 12. CIA normally forwards 2 copies to the US Supreme Commander at SHAPE, 3 copies to CIA operational representatives, and about 7 to other representa- Approved For Release 2005/4t~lTTP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/6 4Y!Q1WTIBP79R00971Aq?8400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 To US Missions and Headquarters Outside Washington TOTAL - 57* See paras. 44-4$. Ordinarily, NIE's sent overseas to one departmental representative are available to representatives of other services in the area. Approved For Release 2005/024/ EI RAP79R00971A000400020017-3 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/@ f; 3QP79R00971A000400020017-3 lww~ IAC - D- 94/ 1 10July 1956 RECEIPT, READERSHIP, AND USE A. The White House and the President's Special Assistants 7. Six copies of NIE's are received by the White House staff. Copies of each are routed to: (a) the Staff Secretary for Intelligence, (b) the Office of the Special Assistant for Psychological Affairs, and (c) the Office of the Special Assistant for Disarmament Matters. The Office of the Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Affairs receives 9/ only those NIE's relating to specific and assigned problems. 8. The President himself sees only those NIE's which are selected for him by the Staff Secretary for Intelligence or those which he asks for after having been briefed on their contents. In the majority of cases the President relies on the briefings of NIE's, either oral or written, prepared by the Staff Secretary for Intelligence. The Director 9/ The Office of the Special Assistant for National Security Matters is considered a part of the NSC, inasmuch as the Special Assistant is Chairman of the NSC Planning Board. Approved For Release 2005/0&6Fj79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rgjgase 2005/WW411kk1P79R00971W400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 of Central Intelligence also occasionally briefs on NIE's at NSC meetings. The President regards NIE's as important to him in several respects. Primarily, NIE's are valuable because they represent the best possible resolution at the intelligence level of differences among most departments and agencies participating in initial formulation and execution of US foreign policy, i. e., completed staff work. The President also regards as useful those NIE's which deal with specific foreign policy problems on which he is currently working. Finally, the President makes use of the small number of NIE's which contain new information, a new approach, or some new ideas and interpretations. 9. The Special Assistants for Psychological Affairs, la/ for Disarmament Matters, and for Economic Affairs are not ordinarily first-hand recipients of NIE's. NIE's are first used in varying degrees by the ranking officer in each office. Thus, the impact that NIE's have on the Special Assistants depends almost entirely on the extent to which their subordinates use the NIE's in doing the necessary staff 10/ At the time this was office of Mr. Nelson Rockefeller. Approved For Release 2005/Mf1I5j f P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/ I1b(If iP79R00971AQgO400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 work for their principals and the President. 10. The ranking officers on the staffs of the White House Special Assistants read the conclusions of virtually all NIE's received. In this way, they learn the collective judgment of the intelligence community on the important problems of the day and are in a position to determine whether further use can be made of the NIE. The extent to which they go on to read the Discussion depends upon a variety of factors and generalizations are difficult. How thoroughly an NIE will be read and used often depends on such intangibles as the amount of time available when the NIE arrives, how rxiuch or little the receiving officer happens to know about the subject, and the receiving officer's estimate of his superior's. interest and requirements. However, the most important factor determining hov, thoroughly an NIE is read by White House staff officers is its subject matter and its applicability, both in substance and timeliness, to the work of the reader. 11. Thus, the Office of the Special Assistant for Disarmament Matters and the President's Staff Secretary for Intelligence use NIE's more extensively than the Office of the Special Assistants for Approved For Release 2005/Qldt4FIf3 '79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/MW{QP79R009710400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 Psychological Affairs and Economic Affairs. Few NIE's directly treat the problems with which the latter offices are concerned, and most readers found them only of "some" 11/ use for background purposes. On the other hand, a wide range of NIE's (some of them specifically requested) are the only source of agreed intelligence judgment and in- formation essential to the work of the Assistant for Disarmament Matters. B. The National Security Council and Planning Board 12. This section deals with the receipt of NIE's and their use in the production of NSC papers, and will not describe the use made of NIE's by the individual members of the NSC. Sixteen copies are re- ceived by the National Security Council and the Office of the Special Assistant to the President for National Security Matters. The Special Assistant, the Secretary of the NSC, and the Deputy Secretary all receive copies of all NIE's. The majority of the NSC staff members also regularly receive copies of all NIE's. Selected NIE's are brought to the attention of the Council members. 11 / The use rating was "great, considerable, some, little, or none." Approved For Release 2005/~,bWF,Sffi-ff Approved For Rase 20051 Ot 1E ( P79R00971AQ00400020017-3 IA.C-D-94/1 10 July 1956 13. All recipients in the NSC Secretariat regularly read the conclusions of all NIE's and in the majority of cases read the text as well. The NIE's which receive the closest attention are those which deal with a. problem with which the Planning Board or the NSC is currently engaged. 14. Apart from the use made by members of the NSC and its Planning Board within their respective departments (covered below), it should be noted that the NSC and the Planning Board do use the NIE's directly. The Director of Central Intelligence frequently uses NIE's in his weekly oral briefing of the NSC. NIE's are used by the CIA representative at Planning Board meetings. NIE's are also the intelligence contributions to NSC policy papers, on occasion being incorporated in part verbatim in the NSC text. 15. The importance of NIE's to the Special Assistant for National Security Affairs and the NSC Secretariat derives primarily from their need for the collective judgments of the intelligence community. Just as their major preoccupation is with matters tran- scending the responsibility of one agency or department, so they Approved For Release 200518&1fli.JQP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/ /, 9FJV IJ .W79ROO971AO 4000200171 G,_D e 94 / 1 10 July 1956 require fully coordinated national intelligence. Similarly, the close relationship between the intelligence estimate of the situation and the US policy with regard to that situation causes the NSC staff to study closely and rely heavily on NIE's. In summary, the majority of users of NIE's in the NSC staff and secretariat consider them of great value because they express the intelligence community's collective judgment, provide useful background information, and are used directly in working on NSC policy papers. C. NSC Net Evaluation Subcommittee.. 16. The NSC Net Evaluation Subcommittee relies almost ex- elusively on NIE's for its intelligence support. The nature of its work requires that the intelligence it uses be fully coordinated national intelligence. Several NIE's are prepared expressly for the NESC. For these reasons, the NIE's which deal with Soviet capabilities for attack on the US are carefully and thoroughly read and frequently re- ferred to by all members of the NESC staff during the preparation of the annual NESC report. Approved For Release 2005fO6(l ,b )PAPP79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Reuse 2005/O f % II l 79R00971AAGD400020017.C -D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 D. The Operations Coordinating Board 17. This section deals with the receipt and use of NIE's by the OCB secretariat and staff. NIE use by the OCB members them- selves will be treated under the appropriate departmental or agency section. The OCB secretariat and staff receives four copies of all NIE's. The Executive Secretary, Deputy Secretary, and Chief of the Intelligence Staff each receive a copy, and all officers working on special projects receive NIE's which deal with the problem they are working on. All recipients read the conclusions of all NIE's and in the great majority of cases the full text as well. The Executive Secretary reads the full text of those NIE's which bear on problems on which OCB is currently working. He often reads extensively in other NIE's as well as a means of clarifying his own thinking about the range of foreign policy problems for which OCB is or may become responsible. 18. NIE's contribute significantly to the effectiveness of the work of the OCB secretariat. They provide useful background in- formation, make available the collective judgment of the intelligence Approved For Release 2005/ /' R 5k RP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/641? 'W!r&N]iWP79R00971A0GW400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 community for use in preparing OGB progress reports, and to a lesser extent supply judgments and information not available elsewhere. However, NIE's are not as extensively used by the OCB as they are by the NSC Planning Board and secretariat. The principal reasons for this are: (a) the major portion of OCR's work and papers is organized on a country basis and therefore a number of the functional or generalized NIE's are of little direct use; (;b) OCB progress reports are issued periodically and there is not always an up-to-date NIE available at the time when it could be used to greatest advantage; (c) frequently OCB reports require more detailed information than is contained in the average NIE;; ('d)' OCB receives more intelligence from sources other than NIE's than does the NSC secretariat. E. The Department of State 19. The Special Assistant for Intelligence (R) forwards an average of seven copies of each NIE to various users throughout the Department, the nu i?')er varying with the subject matter. He normally forwards a summary of each NIE to the Secretary of State and Under Secretary with the full estimate attached. Copies of the Advance Approved For Release 2005le8fj/bi jP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rise 2005/64?W TWP79R00971A8Q400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 Conclusions are frequently forwarded when the NIE is especially timely. In this form the Secretary and Under Secretary see the gist of a high proportion of NIE's. Occasionally a particularly important NIE on an urgent problem will also be brought to their personal attention by another member of their staff, by the Assistant Secretary for an area, by the Director of the Policy Planning Staff, or by the Director of Central Intelligence. The Secretary thus makes use of NIE's as another source of information inhandling a particular problem of the moment. In some cases the Secretary and the Under Secretary also receive the substance of appropriate NIE's as part of their morning briefings. 20. The Director, Policy Planning Staff, receives all NIE's. Initially, he reads only selected NIE's and selectively in them. Subsequently, he reads conclusions and text of almost all NIE's and devotes particular attention?to those which pertain to particular foreign policy prdblems he is engaged on. He considers NIE's as essential for personal background and for working on specific foreign policy problems. Approved For Release 2005/~4(3Ap1 1E79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Re se 2005/ ! II P79R00971AOQW400020017-3 IAC-TD-94/1 10 July 1956 21. NIE's are routed to other areas in the Department largely on a geographic basis. The "R" Area sends. to each Assistant Secretary those NIE's which concern his area. Valid generalizations concerning the extent to which NIE's are read are difficult because of such varying factors as: (a) other demands on the recipient's time when the NIE's are received; (b) the applicability of the NIE to the problems confronting the reader at the moment; and (c) the degree of the recipient's prior knowledge of the subject of the NIE. In comparison with users in the military agencies, the State Department readers in area offices tend to rely less on NIE's for personal information. This is so in part because State officials are already intimately familiar with the political, economic, and social analyses which form a large portion of NIE's and in part because they receive a larger daily flow of in- formation about their area of concern. Nevertheless, NIE's are thought to be of "considerable" 12 / value at all levels by most of the officers working on specific foreign policy problems, particularly in 12/ The rating range was "great, considerable, some, little, or none." Approved For Release 2005/W 1 P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For R s ?W1DEWW fLR00971AO 400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 the preparation of drafts for the NSC Planning Board, which are of the same level of generality as NIE's. NIE's also have considerable value as a reference to the collective judgment of the intelligence community. F. The Department of Defense 13/ 22. The Joint Intelligence Group forwards an average of three NIE's to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Principal use is made by the Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, where the estimates are read with varying degrees of thoroughness de- pending on their nature and content. 23. The Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. An average of 12 NIE's are distributed to non-intelligence users in the office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The JIG questionnaire indicates that (a) only the conclusions are usually read in the office of the Chairman, JCS, and 13 The Survey at the Department of Defense and JCS level was conducted by the Joint Intelligence Group on the basis of written questionnaires. Revised,7 August 1956 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release P" "jDW~MMf00971AO 00020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 in the Joint Strategic Survey Committee; (b) the entire estimate is "sometimes" read in the office of the Joint Logistic Plans Group; and (c) the entire text is "usually" read in the office of NSC Affairs and in the Joint Strategic Plans Group. 24. Answers to the JIG questionnaire indicate that NIE's are read primarily for personal background and information, with only three of the seven offices responding indicating that NIE's were con- sistently used for working on specific problems. For example, one office which replied that it consistently used NIE's for working on a specific problem also replied that the substance of some NIE's was not adequate for its purposes. The most frequently mentioned limitation on NIE's was that they were too general. 25. In addition to their direct use by end recipients, many NIE's are extensively used by the Joint Intelligence Group in the preparation of the political and economic portions of JIC papers and of various JIG briefings and memoranda. Revised, 7 August 1956 Approved For Releasg2QQ5~~~~~ITA~R R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rdledse 2005/6Vf( lr P79R00971A09Ef4000200171AC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 G. The-Department of the Army 26. Of the 50 copies of NIE's sent to the Department of the Army, an average of 23 are forwarded by AC of S, Intelligence (G-2), to offices and individuals in Washington directly responsible for those aspects of Army plans and operations which concern or are affected by developments abroad. The Secretary of the Army and the Chief of Staff receive a copy of all NIE's; each NIE so forwarded has a one- page summary prepared by G-2 which includes the NIE's major con- clusions. 27. One difficulty in assessing the impact of NIE's in the Department of the Army stems from the variety of ways in which their contents are brought to the attention of the top Department officials. For example, the substance-of a newly published NIE is almost always included in the weekly briefing by G-2 which is attended by top of- ficials of the Department. The major conclusions of all NIE's are also included in "black books" which are prepared for various officials either for their background information or for their use in dealing with a particular problem. Finally, in providing intelligence support for Department officials, including the weekly briefings mentioned above, Approved For Release 2005IO l -ft '79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For ReI.ese UQfJ"JL%W r 00971A0QD 00020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 G-2 will often rely heavily on NIE's even though the end product does not specifically indicate such reliance. 28. Among others, the following Army officials receive and read with varying degrees of thoroughness the majority of NIE' Secretary of the Army, Chief of Staff, Deputy. Chief of Staff for Plans and Research, Assistant Secretary of Civilian-Military Affairs, and Deputy Chief Plans Division of G-3. In most cases, the NIE's are first screened by personal staff subordinates, who will check or side-line appropriate portions. The thoroughness with which an NIE is read by the principals appears to depend upon a number of factors which include: (a) their individual working habits and interests; (b) the timeliness and applicability of a given NIE to problems currently confronting them; (c) their need for joint community judgments; i. e., in preparing for NSC meetings or intelligence conferences or papers with other countries; and (d) the extent to which their attention is flagged by their screeners. Although the survey material is inadequate to permit firm generalizations, as a general rule NIE's have the greatest impact at this level in the Army when they deal with important matters affecting over-all Army plans and policy (the impact of nuclear parity), treat subjects affecting the Army Revised, 7 August 1956 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Iv1 iDENTIAL Approved For R*Aease lFfD.MNf!ffPAb00971A 0400020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 which are particularly controversial (the fall of Dien Bien Phu), or affect plans for the disposition of Army resources (Yugoslavia, Baghdad Pact, Korea). 29. NIE's are more extensively used in G-3 than in any other office of the Department of the Army except G-2. It is here that relevant NIE's are often usdd :as an integral part of the process of preparing Army plans. Frequently, estimates in NIE's form the basis for the assumptions upon which Army plans are prepared. The level of generality in an NIE is adequate in some cases for the work done in G-3, and where it isn't supplementary detailed information is obtained from G-2. All G-3 desk officers receive all NIE's which pertain to the problems they are as- signed. 30. In summary, the chief uses to which NIE's are put in the Department of the Army seem to be as a reference to the collective judgments of the intelligence community, as a convenient source of personal background information on a variety of subjects affecting Army policy and programs, and as a useful tool for working out specific Army or national foreign policy aroblem.a. Revised, 7 August 1956 Approved For Release ~ONFIDENTIARDP7r00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/g gff/:MXr.P79R00971AW040002001 RC -D _ 94/ 1 10 July 1956 The Department of the Air Force 31. AFOIN regularly forwards 12 NIE's to Air Force offices in Washington. These include the Secretary of the Air Force, the Chief of Staff, and the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, as well as the major components charged with planning and operational responsibili- ties in the field. 32. The Secretary of the Air Force is shown only a limited number of NIE's. . These are selected for him largely on the basis of providing him with the collective judgment of the intelligence com- munity on joint military planning matters which have direct and important implications for the Air Force. 33. A small number of NIE's are brought to the attention of the Chief of Staff and the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, when in the opinion of AFOIN, they pertain to Air Force matters, allude to par- ticularly interesting political developments, or contain interesting dissents. They read those portions of NIE's which are brought to their attention largely for personal background and so that they may be aware of collective judgments on matters of concern to them. The Director, Approved For Release 2005/86ar.PRP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Re ase [( 111) E,IR0097IA o400020b .3D-94/1 10 July 1956 AFOIN, finds that NIE's have not been of as much direct use as desirably they might be in dealing with the responsibilities of the Chief of Staff and the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, in decision making, or establishing a position in dealing with other officials. NIE's have been useful in supplementing other information. The Director, AFOIN, believes that NIE's would be more useful to the .Air Force leadership if they more clearly identified things that are causative in certain situations in such terms as to give action people the best chance to decide whether they should prepare against these things, destroy or reduce them, increase them, or take no action. NIE's are also used in connection with Joint Strategic Plans and in preparing special studies to be referred to the Chief of Staff,. 1. The Department of the Navy 34. On an average, ONI forwards 10 copies of all NIE's to non-intelligence echelons, including the offices of the Secretary of the Navy, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Politico-Military Policy Division, and the Strategic Plans Division. In all these offices, NIE's are screened by qualified staff members before further distribution is made, 35. The Secretary of the Navy and the Chief of Naval Operations make direct use of only a limited number of NIE's. In general, they 33 RevisAi$pr&`%Jfldt M&a seffi(jbf"j R0097IA000400020017-3 Approved For R se 2005/64' 'WIC&N-TfkJP79R00971A0W400020017IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 rely primarily for their intelligence on briefings by their departmental staffs. In most cases, these staffs use NIE's in preparing intelligence material for the SECNAV and CNO and attributed briefs of newly published NIE's are included in the twice-weekly ONI briefings. However, the SECNAV and CNO only occasionally are told what portions of their briefings stem directly from NIE's or other estimates, and then only when the briefing. concerns a special problem on which they are working. Certain NIE's may be selected by their aides or for- warded by the various staff divisions as being of particular interest. When so forwarded, the entire estimate is usually read, with par- ticular reference to the noted portions. The principal criteria for selecting NIE's for forwarding directly to the SECNAV and the CNO are relevance to current problems where the collective judgment of the community is important and which have a direct bearing on national decisions importantly affecting Navy interests, policies, and programs. 36. The Politico-Military Policy Division and the Strategic Plans Division are the major users of NIE's in the Department of the Navy. The Directors of the Divisions do not initially see all NIE's, although most eventually reach them, with appropriate sections Approved For Release 200518&4,D9&JQP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Ruse 2005/GQWIDZ l-I:MP79R00971A 400020017IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 side-lined or with staff comments. In general, the Division Directors read only the conclusions and the side-lined portions of the text of those NIE's which they receive. 37. The extent to which NIE's are initially used and read in the two divisions depends primarily on their relevance to the work immediately at hand. The conclusions are almost invariably read upon receipt by all users. The NIE's are subsequently used in varying degrees in connection with reviewing plans, preparing memoranda on current developments, and drafting intelligence annexes of area studies. Although NIE's appear to have considerable value in pro- viding information for personal background, their more important use is in bringing the collective judgment of the intelligence community to. bear on working out the Navy's position on specific foreign policy questions. These uses include: (a) providing a basis for joint action; (b) providing a check against individual judgments; (c) furnishing an over-all point of view; and (d) permitting a more rounded evaluation of proposed national policy. In general, NIE's serve a useful purpose in support of work on over-all, long-range problems or on questions of national policy, but are much less useful in their application to Approved For Release 2005/~46'PF~$h P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For ReFeffse 2005/6 !LffihIIFWP79R00971AOb9"400020017-3 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 specific or detailed naval problems. J. The Federal Bureau of Investigation 38. Two copies of all NIE's produced are received in the office of the representative of the FBI on the IAC. He prepares a summary to attach to the copy forwarded to the Director. The other copy is normally routed to the espionage unit and to the office of domestic intelligence. The Director of the FBI is forwarded NIE's primarily for briefing and background purposes. The other principal use of NIE's to the FBI is to facilitate the coordination of domestic and foreign intelligence activities. K. The Atomic Energy Commission 39. The Atomic Energy Commission receives four copies of all NIE's. The Chief of the Intelligence Division screens all NIE's received and determines their further distribution within the Commission. NIE's fall into three general categories as far as AEC use is concerned. Those NIE's or portions thereof dealing with AEC matters are of limited use largely because the AEC itself is a major participant in their preparation. Those which deal with countries with which the US Approved For Release 2005/e4/aIDCl -FRP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Re"l se 2005/69$! TlP79R00971A a 400020017IAc-D- 94/ 1 10 July 1956 has atomic energy agreements or upon whom the US relies for atomic energy resources are of considerable value to the AEC in formulating its programs and policies in the foreign field. Finally, those NIE's of a more general character are used primarily in the AEC for general background information of responsible officials who have some concern with foreign policy problems. L. The International Cooperation Administration 40. ICA receives three copies of all NIE's. They are screened by the Special Assistant to the Director for OCB and NSC matters and selected by him for further appropriate dissemination. Normally, NIE's are forwarded to the Director's office (usually side-lined or briefed), to the Director of Plans, the appropriate area chief, and to others involved in NSC or OCB support. 41. In addition to providing personal background information, NIE's are used principally as (a) starting points by country desk officers for NSC status reports and various reports to the OCB; (b) as bases for evaluating the mutual security programs in various countries; and (c) as summary briefings for ranking officials preparing Approved For Release 2005/ 41 1A P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Ruse 2005iCfDW/ t 1II P79ROO971kOti'0400020017I C -D -94 / 1 10 July 1956 to visit foreign countries. ICA respondent indicated that NIE's generally do not treat economic matters in sufficient detail to be of much use in working out detailed economic programs for individual countries. M. The United States Information Agency 42. USIA receives four copies of ;those estimates approved for release by the IAC (in practice almost all NIE's). On arrival, NIE's receive almost automatic distribution to those responsible for the subject matter treated, with copies of all NIE's going to the Director's office and to the Chief of the Intelligence Division. NIE's are of only minor direct use in the work of USIA. They are read primarily for personal background and information purposes. Some recipients find the collective community judgments contained therein as useful checks on their own thinking. Occasionally, the long-range forecasts in NIE's are used as a basis for determining the priority of ;USIA effort assigned to particular countries, areas, or problems. N. The Central Intelligence Agency 43. Four copies are distributed to the Office of the Director, one to each of the following: The Director, who is the intelligence - 38 - Approved For Release 2005/~46'dF~I1A P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rriease 2005t AQWI! 1 tI P79R00971 0400020017ZIC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 adviser to the NSC; The Deputy Director; The Deputy Director (Intelligence), who is the intelligence adviser to the NSC Planning Board; and to the NSC Planning Board Assistant. These officials participate actively in the work of the NSC, which makes use of NIE's in deliberations and in drafting policy papers (see paragraphs 12-15 for NSC use). In addition, eight, copies I !NIE''s are. distributed for use in the DD/P area of CIA headquarters in Washington, where they are used in varying degrees by planning and area offices. Recipients rate NIE's as valuable for personal background and information, particu- larly because they contain the collective judgment of the intelligence community. NIE's are also useful in alerting planners to the possible need for preemptive operations in areas that may become critical. Finally, NIE's are variously used as a basis for over-all planning, developing regional plans, making various types of progress reports, and preparing requirements for intelligence collection. 0. Distribution and Use Outside of Washington 44. The information on the use of NIE's outside of Washington was 'obtained by the use of written questionnaires (except for SAC which responded to the AFOIN questionnaire, and also was interviewed). - 39 - Approved For Release 2005/( 1pF1 ft '79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For RMease 20051? QfI (rtP79R00971 0400020017L r,-D-94/1 10 July 1956 The information so obtained is not as complete, both in substance and in the proportion of replies to number of recipients, as was possible in the case of Washington users. 45. Department of State. The Special Assistant, Intelligence, distributes an average of nine ME's to State Department posts overseas, using as principal criterion the relevancy of a given NIE to the duties of the post. NIE's are read with interest and thoroughness by the top- level officers (including military attaches) in all the overseas missions. However, most missions report that the principal value of NIE's is for background information, as a useful briefing document for incoming personnel or official visitors, and especially as a guide to thinking in Washington. 46. Department of the Army. The Army normally distributes about 17 copies of NIE's to Army Commanders in the ZI, major over- seas commands, appropriate Army schools and military attaches, and commands for which the Army is executive agent. The number of NIE's sent overseas varies with the subject matter of the NIE. The following views on the use of NIE's are based on replies to a G-2 questionnaire by USEUCOM and the Far East Command, and the Carribean Command. - 40 - Approved For Release 2005/(ICA(LJIAF,&k f '79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Raiease 2005/?QWEc~f T4P79R00971 400020017IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 NIE's are available to a limited number of high-level officials outside the intelligence divisions. The principal use of NIE's in these commands is as important sources of background material--often unavailable else- where--for use by the intelligence divisions in performing their normal intelligence briefing and operational support functions. 47. Department of the Air Force. The Air Force ordinarily sends an average of 12 copies of NIE's to four overseas commands and to eight command headquarters in the US outside of Washington. The following is based upon responses to an AFOIN questionnaire by ADC, the Alaskan Air Command, the Northeast Air Command, and upon an interview with SAC. In both the interior and overseas commands, NIE's are used extensively in the preparation of command estimates of the enemy situation and often contain information not available else- where. The Strategic Air Command found NIE's.particularly valuable as being the principal source of the top-level intelligence thinking and collective intelligence judgments evolving in Washington. SAC also makes considerable use of NIE's as a source of personal background information and for organizational planning. Approved For Release 2005/(614F1 ARf 79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Re ase 20051 1t M$tf;bP79R00971 0400020017r C-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 48. Department of the Navy. The Navy disseminates an average of seven NIE's to overseas commands. NIE's are extensively used by the intelligence divisions of these commands as a basis for providing over-all guidance to the policy and planning echelons either directly or as part of locally prepared intelligence estimates. Several of the commands indicated that NIE's constitute their most important, if not their only, source of fully coordinated national intelligence and guide to top-level intelligence thinking in Washington. Approved For Release 2005/04/ I- DC~lrR~P79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/6VfEEMTfP79R00971 400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 REACTIONS TO NIE CONTENT, FORM AND LANGUAGE 49. As a supplement to the main thrust of the NIE Survey, a number of questions were asked on various aspects of NIE's. In addition, the Survey itself naturally evoked a number of informal responses going beyond the main scope of the Survey. The most significant of these reactions are summarized below. 50. Applicability of NIE's to Specific Working Problems. The question of the application of NIE's to specific tasks evoked perhaps the most complicated set of comments. Any generalization on this subject is made difficult by the fact that NIE's are read by a fairly large group of US officials who work on a wide variety of problems and who deal with these problems at many different levels of specificity. As an example, one NIE reader may be concerned with the formulation of a policy to guide US relations with friendly and neutral nations of the Far East for the next five years; another may be concerned with the planning and execution of the economic aid program for Indochina for the next 12 months. The wide range of subjects covered by NIE's ?43? Approved For Release 2005&(Ab~*-)QP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Reuse 2005/6~WIRON JP79R00971A 400020017 &C-D-94/1 10 July 1956 as a series also makes it difficult for end-users to appraise the appli- cability of the NIE's as a whole to their specific working problems. 51. Considering all NIE recipients as a group, the large majority indicated no serious difficulties in applying the general judg- ments of NIE's. However, there was a sharp split in this appraisal between the White House Staff, the President's Special Assistants, the NSC Planning Board and the Operations Coordinating Board, on the one hand, and those in the departments and agencies on the other. The majority of the former group indicated some degree of difficulty with selected NIE's. Many of their comments indicated a feeling that the broader the level of generalization in the NIE the less likely that it was"founded on known facts. The difference in the attitudes of the White House respondents and those in departments and agencies may be due to some extent to the fact that the former, not being as immersed in a day-to-day flow of intelligence, feel more need for background de- tail or analysis. In contrast, those respondents in the departments and agencies are more fully briefed on foreign developments as part of their regular duties. White House respondents may tend to view the NIE as their basic document from the intelligence community on any Approved For Release 2005L0g/N~,b .-QP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Reuse 2005/ 6 FII UA 79R00971AVG0400020017-3 IA.C-D-94/1 10 July 1956 given problem addressed. The departmental officer, by contrast, is not so dependent upon detailed NIE back-up. In most instances, he can call upon his departmental intelligence unit to provide more detailed treatment, and quite often he does. 52. Degree of Duplication between NIE's and Other Intelligence. A majority of the respondents found half or more of the NIE's received by them generally duplicative of other intelligence. The remainder felt that less than half (or none) duplicated other intelligence received. It was of course apparent during the interviews that few respondents had the same personal tastes or the same flow of intelligence papers across their desks, which would largely determine the extent to which they found NIE's duplicatory of other intelligence. The typical comment made was that NIE's served primarily as a convenient source of data and thinking pertaining to a given subject. The main value of an NIE was in its providing a convenient summary along the above lines as well as the collective judgments of the full-time intelligence people who follow such matters. 53. On the question of which parts of an NIE were most often found to be duplicative, only about half the respondents replied. These -45- Approved For Release 2005 L06(NIpib J .- PP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/ !Q?NTl P79R00971AM40002001 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 indicated that judgments, analysis and argumentation, and the basic data were duplicated in varying degrees by other publications re- ceived. Comments by these respondents indicated that they did not expect newness or originality in an NIE, but that these, when there, were valuable. Duplication of NIE content was mentioned as occurring in (a) special request intelligence papers; (b) studies published by agencies contributing to NIE's; (c) cables and telegrams; and (d) newspapers and magazines. 54. General vs. Specific NIE's. The question of whether NIE's should cover broad general subjects or be more specific in their subject matter proved difficult to answer. This difficulty ap- peared to derive to some extent from the respondent's not having previously given any detailed thought to this problem and from his understandable reluctance to appear to limit the freedom of choice of those guiding national intelligence production. Only about half the respondents mentioned this subject and nearly all who did suggested some increase in the number of "specific" NIE's. By specific was meant '(a) those concentrating on a particular aspect of, say, the Soviet problem, such as the Soviet guided missile program, in - 46 - Approved For Release 2005/Q 1f$ae79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/64?W! T P79ROO971AOeO400020017-3 IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 contrast to the general Soviet paper; (b) those concentrating upon selected aspects of an area, such as economic problems in the Near East, as contrasted to an NIE providing a general round-up of all the factors in that area; (c) those concentrating upon a single country as opposed to those dealing rather equally with all countries in an area; and (d) those concentrating upon selected aspects of a problem in a country, such as, Berlin rather than a broad gauge review of ;the German problem. 55. In general, the preference for these "specific" kinds of NIE's seemed to come from respondents with well-defined geographic or functional responsibilities. Also, many respondents emphasized that the desired increase in "specific?" NIE's should not be accomplished by reducing the number of NIE's now dealing with other subjects. Several respondents acknowledged that the specific type of NIE sug- gested would be more closely tied to a given situation, and therefore would probably have a briefer lifespan than the more general type of NIE. The only two respondents requesting more "general" NIE's were concerned with world-wide policy planning and general economic coverage. Approved For Release 2005/Q4 AFI?&MQ79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/ W!P& (IFWP79R00971ADCf040002001 IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 56. Dissents. Attitude patterns on this question were con- sistent among the NIE recipients. Nearly all respondents, regardless of their area or specific duty were satisfied with the clarity of dis- sents in the majority of NIE's. More than one-third felt the difference was "always" clear; more than half felt the difference was "usually" clear. Only two felt about half the dissents were not clear. A large number of respondents favored the inclusion of the reasoning to support the dissent, though they recognized that controlling its length presented a difficult problem. 57. The evaluation of the usefulness of dissents was not quite so unanimous as the opinion on clarity. Nevertheless, the majority of respondents indicated that the dissents were of "some," "great" or livery great" value. Only six indicated the dissents to be of little value to them. The general thinking of the majority was that such a device increased the confidence of the reader; i. e. , where dissents were used, the reader felt that he was receiving both sides of a con- troversial issue, and where dissents did not appear he could assume there were no serious differences of opinion among the IAC agencies. Approved For Release 2005/Q~ jDYP 79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For RaWase 2005/4tE I P79R00971A1 0400020017IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 Even those readers who had no specific interest in the content of most of the dissents favored their use "in principle." 58. Length. The length and coverage of individual NIE's was another aspect on which there was general agreement. Although only a little more than three-fourths of the respondents expressed views, nearly all of these felt that the majority of NIE's were adequate in length and subject coverage. However, not a single respondent felt that all NIE's he read were adequate, in length and coverage. Two felt that only half or less of the NIE's were unsatisfactory in these respects. Two others felt NIE's were generally "too long." At first glance, this appears to be a heavy vote of confidence and an expression of satis- faction with present length and coverage of individual NIE's. It should be pointed out, however, that there was no attempt to define what degree above one-half was represented by the term "the majority." It was merely defined for the respondents as more than one-half. 59. Estimative Language. The respondents were asked to express their opinion as to the clarity of the general estimative language, and particularly the "odds terms" (almost certainly, probably, Approved For Release 2005/p ILYE J~-AqP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/ ' OI&NIl P79R00971A 4000200171 C -D_ 94 / 1 10 July 1956 even chance, unlikely, etc. ) used to convey a range of probability for various predictions. The majority of readers felt that both were understandable. The readers gave the "odds terms" a slightly higher clarity rating than the general language, even though many respondents were not fully aware of either the meaning of the individual "odds terms" used by the estimators to express the range of probability or the attempt to use these terms with consistency from one NIE to another. When asked to check his own interpretation of the odds terms with the esti- mator's use, the respondent usually agreed on the general order of probability, but boggled slightly at trying to pin these terms to a mathematical spread. However, the large majority both of those who were aware of the specific intent of the odds terms and of those not so aware agreed that the general meaning of the terms was clear to them. Three-fourths felt the terms were "understandable" and the remainder felt the terms were either "clear" or "extremely" clear. Only two respondents felt the, odds terms caused difficulty. A few respondents commented that the odds terms should only be considered in the context of the general estimative language. Several suggested that the odds terms be printed inside the NIE cover. Approved For Release 2005/Q!bpk .P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For RWase 2005/6 ^Y!E&NTkBP79R00971AA0400020017-3 IAC-D- 94/ 1 10 July 1956 60. Judging the general estimative language was an extremely difficult task for most respondents. The decisions by appellate courts were sometimes used for comparison. The large majority felt the language was understandable, but no one thought it was "extremely clear." About one-fifth thought the language was "clear" and about three-fourths thought it "understandable." A few considered the language to be difficult to understand. Some comments were received that estimative expression is a new task for the written language and that the accomplishment to date is rather remarkable considering the short time the estimators have been in business. 61. Timeliness. This aspect of NIE's was also rather difficult for respondents to assess. About one-third of the respondents ex- pressed no views on this problem. If the respondent considered the difficulties involved in producing a timely national estimate, he almost always came ?up with the feeling that NIE's were "about as timely as could be expected."'' xpected. "' ' To avoid this, respondents were asked to consider NIE timeliness entirely in terms of its application to their problems. This, of course, did not work too well in regard to general ME's and may have placed too much emphasis upon the "spot" or "crash" NIE's. No one felt that NIE's were "always" ahead of the problem Approved For Release 2005/0 3 ,& Re79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/6 ~ rI P79ROO971Ab04000200173c -D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 addressed. About half of the respondents felt NIE's "more often than not" were ahead of the problem. A few felt NIE's were "ahead of the problem" about half the time and a few also felt NIE's were "behind the problem" more often than not. 62. Organization and Format. The organization and format of NIE's received almost unanimous approval. A large majority felt the organization and format were "good"; a few felt they were "excellent." Only one respondent rated them as only "fair." Although no detailed questions were asked regarding aspects of NIE format, some respondents suggested that selected graphics would aid in ab- sorbing masses of information, especially economic data. Others felt that it was somewhat easier to read copy with lines running across the page rather than in two columns. The Conclusions were considered especially valuable as a means of "getting at the meat" of the NIE. Those who did criticize the Conclusions were concerned more with the content than with the form. The most often-mentioned suggestion was that the Conclusions should be more of a summary of the entire text. Some suggestions were made that the connection between the Approved For Release 2005/O F &l79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/ ' !I&N.TWP79R00971AD' 04000200178-XC-D-94/ 1 - 10 July 1956 Conclusions and the supporting text be made more apparent. Along this line, the numbering of the supporting paragraphs after each Conclusion was considered especially useful by those respondents who ordinarily read only selected portions of the text. Approved For Release 20051 1AFjb -f ?79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/gVi~ r P79R0097lAbt04000200l7j,3AB A to IAC-T:)- 94/ 1 10 July 1956 List of Agencies Which Provided Distribution Data for the NIE Survey The National Security Council The Operations Coordinating Board The Department of State The Department of Defense The Department of the Army The Department of the Navy The Department of the Air Force The Atomic Energy Commission The Federal Bureau of Investigation The National Security Agency The United States Information Agency The Office of Defense Mobilization The International Cooperation Administration The Central Intelligence Agency Approved For Release 2005/ &+jP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/ i11j14iP79R00971AA0400020017'I3AB B to IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 List of Respondents* for NIE Survey Interviewed by CIA/NE Col. Andrew Goodpastor Staff Secretary for the President Gen. Theodore C. Parker Office of Mr. Nelson Rockefeller Special Assistant to the President for Psychological Affairs Lt. Col. Paul H. Cullen and Mr. Edward Galbreath Office of Mr. Joseph Dodge, Special Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs Mr. Robert Matteson Acting Director, Staff for Mr. Stassen, Special Assistant to the President for Disarmament Matters NSC-NSC Planning Board Mr. Dillon Anderson Special Assistant to the President for National Security Matters and Chairman of the NSC Planning Board Mr. James S. Lay and Mr. S. Everett Gleason NSC Secretariat Note. Titles and ranks used are those in effect at the time of the interview. Approved For Release 2005/e81N. ,fib) TP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/Cpl$`(LMO(I P79R00971A 0400020017-3 TAB B to IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 NSC Net Evaluations Subcommittee Staff Brig. Gen. Gordon B. Rogers Deputy Director CIA o . war A. Herbes, USAF Col. Worth L. Kindred, USA Mr. Elmer Staats Executive Secretary Mr. J. E. MacDonald 4CB Staff Representative Mr. Neilson Debevoise Intelligence Staff Dr. Horace Craig Chief of Intelligence Staff State Mr. Robert Bowie Director, Policy Planning Staff Mr. Robert Barnes Director, Executive Secretariat Mr. Walter Radius, Staff Assistant to the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs Mr. C. Burke Elbrick Deputy Assistant Secretary for European Affairs Approved For Release 2005j?8(M,b Ji- QP79ROO971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/a4? WfDM P79R00971 0400020017-3 TAB B to IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 State (continued) Mr. Cecil B. Lyon Deputy Assistant Secretary Bureau of Inter-American Affairs Mr. Jacques Reinstein Director, Office of German Affairs Mr. Fraser Wilkins Director, Office of Near Eastern Affairs Mr. Kenneth T. Young Director, Office of Philippine and Southeast Asian Affairs Mr. William Crawford Deputy Director, Office of Eastern European Affairs Mr. Walter McConaughy Chief, Office of Chinese Affairs Mr. Walter Stoessel Chief, USSR Staff Army Hon. Wilber M. Brucker Secretary of the Army Col. F. C. Weyand Aide to Secretary of the Army and Col. Cuyler L. Clark Assistant Aide to Secretary of the Army Approved For Release 2005/86aiD~*MP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For F ase 2005/6 W~ lkbO79R00971A-M0400020017, AB B to IAC -D- 94/ 1 10 July 1956 Army (continued) Col. Donald B. Harriott Office of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civilian-Military Affairs Brig. Gen. W. C. Westmoreland Secretary of General Staff Col. William Price for Lt. Gen. James M. Gavin Deputy Chief of Staff, Plans and Research Brig. Gen. David W. Gray Deputy Chief, G-3, Plans Col. Andrew Kinney Executive Assistant to the Secretary of the Air Force Mr. Trevor Gardner Assistant Secretary for Research and Development Brig. Gen. Harvey T. Alness Deputy Director, Plans SAC, Offutt Field, Omaha Panel 14-17 officers, headed by Col. Robert N. Smith, Chief Intelligence Staff, representing the Commanding General, Operations, Plans, and Intelligence Approved For Release 2005/ 'WF1R ,W79R0097lA000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/64?4f! T P79R00971 0400020017-3 TAB B to IAC-D-94/1 10 July 1956 Cdr. Charles E. Nelson Special Assistant to Chairman AEC for NSC Planning Board Mr. John A. Hall Director, Division of International Affairs Mr. Edward R. Gardner Deputy Director, Division of International Affairs Mr. Clark Vogel Assistant Director for Plans, International Affairs Dr. Charles Reichardt Chief, Intelligence Division Mr. Meffert Kuhrtz Liaison and IAC Participant at Production Level Mr. Frank L. Dennis Deputy Assistant Director for Program and Operations, Representative to NSC Planning Board Mr. George Heller Deputy Assistant Director for FE Affairs Mr. Lewis T. Olom Chief, Intelligence Production Division Approved For Release 20051Q ORFI?bkRe79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/E4713 ! CIATRDP79R00971A`0004000200143AB B to IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 Mr. John Tobler Assistant to the Director for NSC, OCB and CFEP Liaison Mr. Milton A. Berger Chief, China Hong Kong Section, Far East Division CIA-DD/P Note. More than 75 NIE end-users participated in the interviews. Approved For Release 2005/QA)W[[ Hof P79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Rase 2005/Q4/13 ~DCTATRDP79R00971A0400020017-3 TAB C to IAC-D-94/ 1 10 July 1956 List of Respondents for NIE Survey Contacted by Departmental Intelligence Elements Defense (JCS) A general questionnaire was circulated by JIG to the following offices or officers, and the results were forwarded to the CIA/NE Task Force. Office of Special Operations Gen. G. B. Erskine, USMC, Ret. Assistant to Secretary of Defense Office of NSC Affairs Gen. C. H. Bonesteel, III, USA Defense Member NSC Planning Board Office of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Office of the Special Assistant to JCS for NSC Affairs Joint Strategic Survey Committee Joint Strategic Plans Group Joint Logistics Plans Group Navy Personal interviews were conducted by ONI. The results were forwarded to the CIA/NE Task Force. The following officers or offices were included. Office of SECNAV Office of CNO Strategic Plans Division Politico-Military Policy Division Approved For Release 2005/Q4 * 1( H19(1 iP79R00971A000400020017-3 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 1755 k t; DIPS` W SWIM Its y nI Papers.- h- ,t also ww"W-trtm tzenato, 'fie believe that it would be vtwth- ,V in.- 1 "Mt ti a . tdo at U496 k'.31 x 40*1 T t* 24 ar i ..r -bj: (2) am Fla used' tl"r w .: , "h'.. I the roo-Ato of rub a s r* a ;tt IV the Boozd of I t~ Via, A I w"1010, of the ultimto o acbeduled vit affielaU of involve 3 cat UY4 , Boomw t best, t We Lb I Somwit-Y Act of 1947 "A Provide fOr "aticaml ,.' the "eceiabiLUwP of lute. tA .t s, DOC;tJMEN'r No. j7-z- NO CK N(E IFd CLASS. t I)>`CLASCI -!CO 'CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT F+E' EW DATE: AIJTH: HR 70-2 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CtA=RRT3P~@i1'~=--^ Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 vhi V At, TAC o LZURM-.0 r acrwaltAtiou ,. timt-A to to tn o -e r a ntr, ti x 4ca and =* ot ti to T Dieo Ea C?/NE z1 D tril 1 - .xaiotan 2 - AD/NE for Collection and Dissemination Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 ILLEGIB Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Approved FaivRelease 2005104J 64 fb[&J?Ma79ROO AOOO4OOO2OO17-3 SECURITY DTFORMANION 26 February 1952 0/NE NOTICE NO? 50 SUBJECTZ Distribution of 0fTE Documents 1a For your information, there are attached hereto the distribution lists covered by our Distribution "A", "B", "C", "D", "E", and 'IF". These lists are of course subject to change as may seem appropriate, and arty' suggestions you may have on possible changes in any of these lists will be welcomed. 2~ There is also attached a copy of the fora "Repro- duction Data". It is requested that this form be completed and attached to any materials which are ready to go to the Publications Unit for reproduction and dissemination. Copies of the form are available in the Publications Unit. A check of the regular distribution lists will show whether or not all appropriate dissemination is automatically covered. If, in any instance, additional dissemination is desired it should be noted on the "Reproduction Data" form, 25X1 n s ra ire . c 0/NE 25X1 RED 281 ^NNIVVCa1 1 VI 1\~.I~.QJ~. LVVV/V~/ IV . VI^-1\VI I JI \VVJI 1^VVV~VVVLVV II CON IDENTIAL 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/04/13 : CIA-RDP79R00971A000400020017-3