PRODUCTION OF MILITARY ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000400050002-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 4, 1970
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2005/07113.: CIA J DP79R00971A000400050002-6
4 May 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, Board of National Estimates
SUBJECT: Production of Military Estimates
1. This is a somewhat delayed response to your memoran-
dum of 16 April. As I indicated to you the other day, part of
this delay has been caused by the heavy press of activity re-
lated to current crises in Cambodia and Egypt. A greater
portion, however, has been devoted to a careful consideration
of your proposal and to discussions inside and outside the
Agency regarding the improvements it would bring about. On the
basis of these deliberations, I would like herewith to outline
the procedures and formats I want adopted for the production of
Soviet and Chinese military estimates.
2. First, as to the allocation of subjects among the
several military estimates, I believe that the proposal in
paragraph 4 of your memorandum will be a considerable improve-
ment. There will, of course, be occasions when additional
estimates, possibly more narrow in scope, will be required to
deal with specific issues of current importance.
3. As to the format of these estimates, I believe that
fundamental changes are required to meet the criticisms ex-
pressed directly to me by Secretaries Rogers and Laird and by
Dr. Kissinger. As your memorandum already recognizes, the
heart of these estimates must consist of a detailed statement
of evidence and analysis, with supporting annexes as required.
The basic foundation must consist of a precise description of
the present status and should address in detail such questions
as: (a) force levels, (b) strategy objectives, (c) political
and economic factors, and (d) R & D developments and test
programs. On this foundation should rest an analysis of
potential developments, providing a five-year outlook on alter-
native trends and developments. And finally, from these con-
siderations there should develop a five-year projection of the
most likely course of events. In order to make this estimate
most useful for the President and the members of the National
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Security Council, two additional sections should be prepared
after the basic statement has been completed. These would
consist of (a) major judgments and ccnclusions and (b) a state-
ment of the evidence and analyses in brief.
4. The paper I envisage represents a sharp break from the
format of the past. The basic section would be more specific
in detail, more technical in its discussion, and more involved
in sorting and evaluating the evidence. I feel it essential,
therefore, to assign the preparation and staffing of this part
of the estimate to those offices in the Agency which have the
daily responsibility for analyzing developments in these fields:
namely, OSR in the DDI and OSI and FMSAC in the DDS&T. I would
expect the Board and Staff of ONE to retain its present respon-
sibility for the two most estimative parts of the NIE: the
drawing together of major judgments and conclusions and the brief
statement of evidence and. analyses. Responsibility would also
remain with the Board, and specifically with the Doard member
you designate to chair the estimate, for producing a final Agency
draft and seeing it through USIB coordination.
5. I recognize that the procedure I have described will
require some adjustments between ONE and the two Directorates.
We are all engaged, however, in a common task: namely, to
produce an estimate most responsive to the needs of policy people
as they have been explicitly expressed to me. I am confident
that these adjustments can be made satisfactorily and that
estimates expressive of the considerable expertise this Agency
possesses can be produced. I will leave to you and the two
Deputy Directors the task of working out a satisfactory modus
operandi.
Richard Helms
Director
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