ADDENDUM TO REPORT TO THE BOARD OF THE WORKING GROUP ON SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATES (INTERNAL ONE DISTRIBUTIOIN ONLY)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000400050025-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2005
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: March 27, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE (E' NATIONAL ESTIMATES
27 March 1970
ADDENDUM TO: Report to the Board of the Working Group an
Soviet Military Estimates
(Internal ONE Distribution Only)
1. Since the meeting of the Working Group on 25 March,
we have received Secretary Laird's response to the DCI on the
subject of the military estimates (attached). We agree with
most of the propositions advanced by the Secretary (which have
also been suggested by others). The proposals in our Report
to the Board of 26 March, we feel, would meet most of his re-
quests. In our view, however, two of his requests should be
nntisfied in ways other than changing the NIE's.
Secretary Laird proposes that "The estimates, especially
the strategic attack and defense papers, should be revised and
updated more often, perhaps quarterly." We oppose this scheme
on the following grounds:
(a) To the extent that a need exists for more
frequent updating of the strategic papers,
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it is already being met (at least for
high-level consumers) by the President's
Quarterly Report. This document is
coordinated with DIA and State, and there-
fore ranks as national intelligence.
(b) In our experience, the basic judgments
in the strategic NIEs change slowly over
t.imo as the result of an accumulation of
bits and pieces of evidence, analysis in
depth, and prolonged haggling. There are
not ordinarily in any given quarter enough
newsworthy events to warrant a re-do of the
estimates (or even, for that matter, publica-
tion of the PQR). Any truly momentous event
enn he hnndled by either a 8NI1* or n Memo-
randum to Holders.
(c) Unless we adopted a looseleaf format, which
does not seem to appeal to the DCI, more
frequent updating of the strategic estimates
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would pose formidable problems of production
and coordination. The practical effect
would be to convert the military estimates
from a periodic to a continuous exercise.
3. We also oppose Secretary Laird's proposal that each NIE
have a section comparing previous judgments with current ones
which would show "any tendency to consistently over-estimate or
under-estimate."
(a) We have already been moving in this direc-
tion by pointing up changes in major judg-
ments and giving in greater detail the
reasons for such changes.
(b) Adoption of this proposal in file would
put us in the position of sitting in
judgment on ourselves. Even if we could
do so in an unbiased fashion, any conclu-
sions we reached would be automatically
suspect.
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(c) In many cases, such judgments are simply
not possible; things predicted have not
yet come to pass and hence verification
is impossible. In others, perfectly good
estimates can come to look bad because the
Soviets change their plans as a result of
US actions or other changes in the mili-
tary or political situation confronting
them.
(d) The task of coordinating such a section
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