SOME STRAINS IN PRODUCING NIE 11-8-70

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000400050050-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2005
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: April 30, 1971
• Content Type: MF

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30 April 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of National Estimates
SUBJECT: Some Strains in Producing NIE 11-8-70
1. On 13 May 1970, we met with the Task Force on an
outline for 11-8-70. The DDI objected to the way the tasks
were allocated, and got together with Abbot and me that
afternoon. The consequence was the non-heroic decision to
have both ONE and the Task Force draft certain sections of
the paper. Subsequently, at the DDI's direction, the Task
Force produced its own outline. This had no deleterious
consequences, because and I met with Brandwein
and0 on 26 May and reached a meeting of the minds.
subsequently argued that the second meeting
was unnecessary, and I went along.
I
2. On 25 May 1970, I told that I would like
to meet with the drafters of the estimate, to make sure that
we were all on the same track (I distrusted communication
through too many intervening people and I wanted to make a
point about working with the Task Force in the same way as
with our own staff). readily agreed, but Clarke over-
ruled him. I called ruwho argued that his people knew
what to do, that they were very busy, and that the supervisors
of the drafters had the responsibility for what they did. He
offered me a meeting with supervisors, which I declined. We
finally agreed. to a 2-step process- a meeting first with team
leaders and other key people, and then with all the drafters.
The first meeting was held on 27 May with 10 people from the
Task Force. It was very successful from my point of view.
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3. On 16 June and again on 24 June, (please
protect) told me that the Task Force concept was less clear-
cut than the old contribution system; the former, unlike the
latter, did not have clear cut internal procedures for handling
material. He said that he was not receiving the support he
would have received if only contributions were involved, and
that the overall effort being applied by OSR was less than in
the past.
4. I sat around in June, having postponed my vacation,
waiting for material to be fed to me. This was to be in chunks
as they became available, and not in a complete package, since
I hoped that my ONE colleagues and I could influence the process
of drafting as it proceeded. (The two Deputy Directors had
agreed that I could get material in this way.) Attached is a
chronology showing what happened through 19 August.
5. Also attached is a chronology of the Life and Times
of Sections XI and XII from 19 August on.
6. The original Task Force draft of Part XII, as I recall
it, did not have a SALT case. On 21 August the full Board asked
for one, including numerical projections to be developed in a
fashion similar to those for the other cases included in Part XII.
On 22 August, said he would have to clear this request with
D/OSR, the DDI and the DDS&T. On 25 August he argued that it was
not possible to come up with meaningful numbers. On 21 September
Bob said that the Task Force had worked out a new and better SALT
case but still without numbers. He said that he appreciated that
he had one point of view and I another. On the same day, he
drafted a memorandum to the two Deputy Directors, arguing for not
quantifying the SALT case, sending me a copy. A Board meeting
on 28 September repeated the request for a SALT case with numbers
(Huizenga prominently included). On 13 October the Board agreed
to go ahead with a SALT case lacking numbers, and s
asked to prepare it.
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11-8-70 Chronology to 19 August 1970
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1 June (o/a) Drafting began.
15 June Contributions due.
16 June
24 June
30 June
1 July
25X1 6 July
25X1 9 July
aid that I would get copies of drafts at the same time
Clarke and Brandwein did - - none were yet ready.
0
said nothing was yet ready - maybe in a couple of days.
said I might get the History Section today. He was then
revising the Deployment Section.
said that Section I (History) would be available today, and
Sections VII and VIII tomorrow. Others soon, except XI and XII.
0
since nothing received. He said tomorrow.
25X1 13 July Called0 He promised package today. He claimed he under-
stood that I wanted a package, not individual parts. A Draft of
Sections I - X as delivered, not yet finally approved by DDI-
25X1 DDS&T. I
apologized, saying that he did understand that
I wanted chunks as they became available, not a package.
27 July Revision of Sections I - X delivered -- not yet finally approved in
DDI and DDS &T.
31 July Draft of Sections XI and XII delivered -- not yet formally approved
by DDI/DDS&T, and not yet ready for Board action.
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25X1 10 August
25X1 17 August
said the task force was now prepared to meet with
the Board on Parts XI and XII. Received revisions to
Parts of Sections I - X.
said a meeting on 19 August on Parts XI - XII was
OK and that they would try to get their revisions to us
beforehand.
19 August Task Force revisions of Sections XI and XII received the
day of the Board meeting, which had to be postponed.
Some on Task Force had not read ONEO revision
of Part XII.
I
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21 August
31 August
11 September
15 September
21 September
28 September
30 September
5 October
8 October
Selected Milestones in The Life and Times of
Sections XI and XII Subsequent to 19 August 1970
Board meetin to consider Section XI and Task Force and
ONE versions of Section XII. Latter shot down.
Revised Section XI delivered by Task Force.
Revised Section XII delivered by the Task Force.
Meeting on revised Section XII.
Revised draft of Section XII delivered by Task Force.
Board meeting on ONE draft, Section XI, and revised Section XII.
Decision made that ONE do the next draft Section XII.
Revised Tables for Section XII delivered by Task Force.
Further revised Tables for Section XII delivered by Task Force.
ONE revised version of Section XII completed in time for
Mettler Panel Meeting on 9 October.
Received preliminary and gene?rallfavorable (if reluctant)
comments on Section XII froyy'I~I
ONE re-write of Section XI completed by
II
Board and Task Force meeting on Section XII. 0 called before
meeting and said they were not fully ready - no alternate texts
to match criticisms.
Meeting with Task Force to consider their suggestions on
ONE draft of Section XII.
Board met with Task Force on revised Section XI (ONE version)
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25X1 3 November
0
sent some proposed changes to Section XI which
"OER had belatedly surfaced".
4-5 November Met with Representatives on Section XI and XII.
20 November Met with Representatives to consider change sheets on
SS-9 MOD 4.
24 November NIE ll- 8-70 approved by the USIB.
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BEM 10-101
FORM N5 101 REPLACES
I AUG U6 54 WHICH MAY
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1. The Board chairman of the Estimate is clearly in charge of
aspects of the preparation of the Estimate from the formulation of
the outline, identification of the issues,"preparation of the
draft, and guidance through coordination to. presentation to
2. The head of the DDI/DDS&T task force works for the Board
chairman of the Estimate. All the pertinent resources of the
DDI, DDS&T and ONE Staff are at the disposal of the task force head
and thus responsive to the direction of the Board chairman.
3. The responsibilities of the DDI and DDS&T components are to
respond to the needs of the Board chairmai.through the head of
the task force who must see that:. the CIA views are clearly
represented (at least as alternative explanations) in the draft
of the Estimate.
4. The task force will prepare that part of the e *t imate which
lays out and interprets the evidence and technical
tail, going
into the future only to the extent that the evidence*ermits
(i.e., one or two years)-*. It will also formulate opt~ional
projections under the direction of the Board chairman.]
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