POST-MORTEM OF NIE PRODUCTION FOR FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 1954

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000500010009-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: October 7, 1954
• Content Type: MF

--TOI' SECRET
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101708
7 October 1954
MEILORANDUM FOR CHIEF, ESTI]L4TES STAFF
SUBJECTS Post-Mortem of NIS Production for First Six Months
of 1954
1o There is attached a draft of consolidated findings on
intelligence gaps noted in NIE production for the period 1 January
30 June 1954. This draft consists largely of the contributions
received in response to my memorandum of 8 September to the
several section chiefs with only minor editorial changes.
2. It is proposed that this draft be considered in detail
by the General Group at the earliest possible date with a view to
submitting a revised version to the Board as soon as possible,
3. The target date for IAC consideration is 26 October. In
order to meet this, the following schedule is recommended$
Completion of General Group Review: 11 October
Completion of Board Review and
dispatch to I&C representatives: 14 October
Meeting of IAC representatives: 20 October
Copies:
This memorandum may be downgraded to SECRET
when the attachment is removed,
I
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TOP SECRET Enclosure A
7 October 1954
SUBJECT: Pont Mortem of NIB Productionfor the Period 1 January
to 30 June 1954
The following is a review of intelligence deficiencies revealed
during the preparation of National Intelligence Estimates during
the first six months of 19540 The estimates upon which these consoli-
dated findings are based are listed in Tab A.
In most cases substantial intelligence information wee
available for the NIB V5 produced during the period under consideration.
In many casess however$ there continued to be a serious need both
for more reliable intelligence and for more timely receipt and
evaluation of this intelligence in Washington. In particulars there
is a continuing need for better intelligence
Since'
generally, information is more easily obtainable on the Satellites
(particularly on East Germany and East Berlin) than on the USSR
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and since intelligence on the Satellites is of considerable help
in analysing developments in the USSR,, an expanded effort should
be made to exploit all available channels for obtaining econotic,
political, scientific, and military information the -satellites.
2.o Soviet Bloc
Gaps in intelligence on the Soviet Bloc continue to be
those inherent in the restrictive policies of the Ccmunist stateso
However, the methods employed by US intelligence for exploiting the
development, Estimative work in the period under review indicated
a need for greater collection efforts or more effective and more
generally acceptable analytical methods in the following fields:
limited range of data available are probable capable of further
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Miscellaneous Estimates
The NIE?s produced during the period in the 100
(Miscellaneous) series were rather specialized estimates dealing
primarily with questions involving speculation and judgment on
which little "evidence" was available, However, production of
NIE 100-54 "Probable Effects of Increasing Nuclear Capabilities
Upon the Policies of US Allies," on a subject generally agreed to
be of continuing and increasing Importance, Indicated the necessity
for systematic collection of all possible evidence on the attitudes
and fears of foreign peoples and governments with respect to the
threat of nuclear 'carfare in-an age of "nuclear plentyo" NIE 100-3-54
"Consequences of a Relaxation of Non-'Communist Controls on Trade
with the Soviet Bloc" Indicated, as have other East-West trade
ostimates, the need for better evidence on the "qualitative" (as
opposed to quantitative) importance of imports from the West to
Soviet military strengtho
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