'REDUCING INTELLIGENCE DEFICIENCIES', MEMORANDUM PREPARED(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000500020009-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: R
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: June 18, 1952
• Content Type: MF

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 Approved For ReUse 20cR &IA I- P79R00971 0 500020009-1
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGaCY
OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE
Production Staff
REDUCING INTELLIGENCE DEFICIENCIES
1. Scope. The present memorandum is confined to making optimum
use both as to deductions and presentation of information available.
It purposely omits the important, but separate, question of means for
obtaining more information.
2. Many problems of strategy, tactics, technique and logistics
of the Armed Services have been profitably attacked by outsiders, having
time for a thorough study and who brought to bear on the problem techniques
of mathematics, statistical analysis, etc. Examples are the studies of
ORO, Project VISTA, etc., made for the Armed Services by outsiders.
Conclusion: The methodology of forming intelligence estimates
and the value of those produced could probably be-greatly improved by the
same methods which have improved studies in other fields.
3. It would be much more illuminating to make a thorough study of
selected NIEs utilizing techniques not now widely used in NIE production
than to take another more superficial look at all NIEs by the same per-
sons, utilizing the same techniques that were originally employed in
producing the NIE and with the same limitations as before.
4. Specific types of attack which seem promising for improving
intelligence estimates:
a. Where active military capabilities are concerned, there is
no substitute for war-gaming. The two-sided map maneuver with
umpires is the most profitable.
b. A critical, realistic logistical study is essential to a
real understanding of t1e soundness of many NIE conclusions.
c. Applications of statistical analysis to questions of
probability, sampling, etc., gives great promise in intelligence
estimates.
d. A study of methodology in forecasting has proved valuable
in certain other activities. It would probably be equally valuable
in intelligence.
5. Conclusion: The time has now come when we should make a
systematic effort to improve the methodology of the production and
presentation of intelligence (as contrasted with collection).
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wr-' ~+ {: {may' j [
11 June 1952
. The present memorandum is confined to making optimum
use both aaae o deductions and presentation of inforn:ation available.
It purposely omits the important, but separate, question of means for
obtaining ,,,,, information.
2. illy problems of strategy, tactics, technique and logist
rvicea have been profitably attacked by outsiders, , having
turfy and who brought to bear on the problem techniques
, etc. Examples are the studies of
ORO, Project VISTA, etc., made for the Armed Services by outsiders,
ftnaluslons The methodology of forming intelligence estimates
vaa. ues of those produced could probably be greatly improved irr the
same methods which have improved studies in other fields.
It would be much more illuminating to make a thorough study of
selected NIEs utilising techniques not now widely used in Ll production
than to take another more superficial look at all AiIF:a by the same per -
sonss, utilizing the same techniques that were originally employed in
producing the E and with the same limitations as before.
,,, Specific types of attack which seem proo,
intelligence estimates:
a, ire active military capabil
eubsertitute for waxy-gaming. The
usaspires is the most profitable,
sing for improving
ties are concerned, there is
wo-sided map maneuver with
b. A criticaal$ realistic logistical study Is essential to a
dersta riding of ttr soundness
c. Applications of statist
probability, sampling? eta,,
estivateess.
to questions of
mice in intelligence
d. A study of methodology in forecasting has proved valuable
in certain other activities. It would probably be e ua ly valuable
in intelliaeence.
5. C
___
systematic e;
presentation o;
The time has now come when we should make a
ve the methodology of the production and
see (as contrasted with collection).
many NIB conclusions.
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 Approved For Release 005 6 ? CI - P79 0950 0 -162
Experts Urge Tactical Air Might;
Score Stress on Big Atom Bomber
Broad California Tech Survey Say Strategic
`One-Weapon' Idea Upsets Force's Balance
-Report Stirs Pentagon Controversy ,
another discussion of how to make
more shots count; i. e., how to pro-
cure maximum effectiveness from
the great volume of fire power and
amount of equipment now avail-
able to United States troops.
hydrogen or thermo-nuclear device.
The test device scheduled to be
detonated at Eniwetok in the fail
cannot be termed a trial of the
"hydrogen bomb," for the detona-
Force of a tactical air development
wing to stimulate the rapid devel-
opment of the optimum potential
of tactical atomic aviation is said
to be advocated.
The net result of all. these rec-
ommendations is interpreted by
some officers as support of the
Army's thesis that tactical air
control must be decentralized, as
in the Navy and Marine Corps
system, and operational control
must he delegated to the units
supported.
The Vista Project, an Armyi
representative sgid, also urged the
establishment within the Army of
a combat development group,
somewhat on the order of the
Navy's Operations 1 Development
tion of the device, though dwarf-
ing by far all other nuclear ap-
plause in history if it works, will
probably be of considerably less
power than the ultimate hydrogen
bomb.
The device is just. that, and not
a bomb. However, the test, if suc-
cessful, may prove the feasibility
of the hydrogen bomb, and if so,
the big bomber school feels its
The report's great emphasis is
upon tactical air power, wfiicl is
used in support of ground opera-
tions, as opposed to strategic air
power, or that employed on inde-
pendent missions against an en-
emy's cities, industries or commu-
nications. Its conclusions are
By HANSON W. BALDWIN
A major effect to increase the basic issues that have been at
nation's tactical air strength and the heart of many of the contro-
fundamental revisions in the .ir versies within the Air Force and
between the Air Force and the
Force system of supporting ground other services, and that formed
troops Ere urged in the final report the background for the Navy-Air
of Project Vista, now under study Force Congressional hearings
in Washington. in 1949.
Project Vista an operational 2. It represented perhaps the most
interpreted by the Army, by the
Navy and by some in the Air Force
as a definite blow to the "big
bomber" school-of thinking that
dominated the Air Force and our
strategic concepts for some time
after World War II.
strategic theories will receive a
considerable boost, since a hydro-
gen bomb as now envisaged could
be lifted only by. the heaviest and
Some in the Air Force believe cal and field development of new
hydrogen bombs will have major weapons.
tactical application, or usefulness The report in addition to en-
to the ground battlefield, but if so dorsing the utilization of aircraft
they will have to be carried, for carriers in tactical atomic mis-
the foreseeable future, by big!sions, urged an increase in their
bombers. number in certain theatres and. ad-
Some of Project Vista's princi- wised the integration of both the
pal recommendations, it was said, Navy air arm and the Air Force's
to
d m o
Korea, and particularly
since the development of light
atomic weapons, which can be
carried by fighter-bombers, the
pendulum of opinion has swung
the other way.
analysis of the application of .'ire thorough academic study of the
power to the ground battlefield; proTilem of" the appltcation of
was made for the armed services fire power to the ground battle-
by the California Institute of Tech- field ,yet conducted, and the-_Ff li
nology, and represents one of scientific reputations of many of
the most thorough scientific ap- the men who participated should
proaches to the problem yet made. insure it a hearing and should
Its voluminous findings, conclu- guarantee its objective nature.
sions and recommendations, recent-_ 3. It came at a time in an election
ly presented to the Pentagon, al- year when air power had been
ready have become a subject of made a matter of political de-
controversy.
According to one informant, it
scores what it terms the "imbal-
ance" in United States military
strength today as due to past_ad-
herence to the one-weapon s:ra-
tegic concept-the atomic bomb
carried by long-range bombers-
and it advocates the maximum
posible development of tactical
atomic weapons. The tactical use
of atomic weapons would be di-
rected against ground troops, air-
fields and military supply line,;.
Decentralization of, and major
modifications in, the Air Force
system used for the control of air-
1craft providing close support for
ground troops Is "`reported to be
urged in the Vista.survey
The modifications suggested ap-
parently will go a long way, if
acted upon by the Pentagon,
toward meting the Army's desire,
The Air Force 'has devoted a
great deal of attention to tactical
air power and there is a sizable
school of thought in the Air Force
that now is definitely opposed to
the single-weapon concept of strat-
egy, or the concentration of the
bulk of our defense funds upon
intercontinental bombers capable
of carrying atomic weapons across
the system that has been used by
the Air Force and Army for the
control of aircraft providing sup-
port for ground troops.
The report suggested that air
missions should be controlled by a
"corps level" unit, and declared
that actual control of a fighter-
bomber squadron engaged on a
Strategic Air Comman
seas theatres' war plans.
The Strategic Air Command's
bomber have not, hitherto, been
under control of an overseas the-
atre commander except for those
assigned to the Korean war, but
are under the strategic direction
of the joint Chiefs of Staff and
are commanded from the United
States.
Although the report stressed
strongly the importance of the de-
velopment of the tactical atomic
capability to the optimum and of
the development of other new
weapons, it specifically pointed out
that for the time being at least,
such development could not sub-
stitute for other arms. Atomic
bate, when Congress was seek- the oceans to enemy targets.
ing ways to cut the defense However, the big-bomber school
budget and when a large atomic, i5 still most officers believe in
'
energy expansion program was
under study by Congress.
Some of the very questions Con-
the majority in the Air Force, and mission should be delegated to the
f ground Army unit that was being
d
d
rable
itici
l
rea
y consi
a
e
cr
sm o
the Project Vista report is being supported.
voiced b some, in the Pentagon, Tactical air control parties
by ah nll~fi be Cil TTli iP/; by the Air
declared. They suggested that the'and the work of "long-haired sci- down to battalion level, it was in-
survey be studied carefully by ap-lentists." dicated. The suggested revision of
propriate Congressional commit-~ The report's defenders, while en- the present Air Force tactical air
tees. dossing many of the general con-1control doctrine would also re-
The California Institute of Tech-~clusions, admit that the report is
nology, with Dr. Lee A. DuBridge, somewhat diffuse and segments of
its president, in an important role, it are deeply steeped in theory.
conducted the study over a course The big-bomber school, more-
of many months. The institute had over, believes that its own theory
the assistance of many officers in of defense will be justified within
the armed services and of many the coarse of a few months by the
scientists, technicians and statis-
ticians from all over the country,
including such men as Dr. J. Rob-
ert Oppenheimer, leading atomic
scientist, now directo rof the In-
which the Air Force opposes, to'stitute for Advanced Study at
exercise operational control (i. e., Princeton, N. J.
command) at corps or division, The project included scores of
support of ground troops. armed forces personnel, visits by
The Vista survey also urged, of- representatives to far-flung mili-
ficers said, extensive use of air- tary activities, studies of past sur-
craft carriers as bases for atomic veys and secret documents and
attack, many papers specially written as
But while stressing the inmpor- backgrou- red-to-this analysis made.
tance of the most rapid posrlible Broad Recommendations Made
development of atomic weapon;; for The recommendations and sug-
tactical purposes, Project Vista gestions were wide-ranging and
specificaly denies that atomic and touched upon nearly every aspect
other weapons can, as yet, replace of ground battle, it was said. The
so-called conventional arms. study was in part a result of the
classify and decentralize the pies- costs, it said, would have to be in
ent joint operations center, which addition to the cost of "convention-
now is usually established at field al" arms.
Army-Air Force level, and would Throughout, the report is said to
shift the detailed control of air- have emphasized the importance of
craft to four decentralized tactical utilizing to the maximum availa.ble
air control centers and tactical air techniques and tactics that have
test at Eniwetok atoll, our mid-I direction center,s which would op-, heen but partially developed. Tank
Pacific atonic proving ground, of; erate at, corps level. and anti-tank, airborne, missiles
the world's first prototype of a! The 'establishment by the Air Iand other fields were covered.
Gimbels open Thursdays till 9
Gimbels features famous
The importance of the Vista re- Korea n~i,,~ war whit ~~pprowpp~}}~~~ not
port was stressed by officers only a~~ i@tW% lCt@raI
aware of its contents as three-fold. proper way to use air power ini
1. It met squarely it was said, the ground support but also inspired
 A roved For Release 2005/06/23: CIA-RDP79R00971A00050OQZQG09-1
TAE NE OR _.TIME3, ' P itTRSDAY,;` J U N . _5, 1952.
$3,463,555,440 Moire Is Asked for Defense;
Special tc THE NEW YORK Tzmas.
WASHINGTON, June 4-Press- 'Othis amount, $414,515,000 is
dent Truman asked Congress today for the Army; $381,972,740 is for
for supplemental appropriai ions the Navy; $1;538,000,000 is for the
for ilia Defense Department ag gre-
Air Force, and $650,000,040 o is for
gating $3,463,555,440 for the 1953 of
fiscal year;: beginning July the Office of the Secretary De-
Nearly $3,000,000,000- of the .-total fence for establishment and devel-
ls for hundreds of bases and cther opment of military installations
military installations at home and and facilities in foreign countries,
abroad.. including the United States par-
The usm of $469,687,000 will ticipation in military public works
cover the recent pay and allow- costs shared with other members
antes increases that Congxess of the North Atlantic Treaty Or-
granted to the armed forces. ganization.
The President's request covered "Approximately $2,400,000,000 of
the projects embraced in the an the amount recommended for pub-
nual. public works bill which the lie works is to finance construction
Defense Department sent to Con- contained in, authorizing. legislation
greys on May 1. It was $37,000,000 now before the Congress. The re-
lower than the estimated for cast mainder is to finance public works
for the military 'public works, bill previously authorized."
in the budget. The construction An- estimated $3,380,700 is for
includes installations that this living quarters, troop housing and
allies overseas.
"The request," said the White
House, "includes $2,990,487,741) for
construction of military public
works essential, in the expansion
and . modernization of our a;,med
forces.
appear. If he accepts, his testi-
mony is expected further to em-
phasize differences between his
views and those of Senator Taft on
the whole mutual security effort.
General Eisenhower has said that
the way to get the defense job done
quickly and economically is to pro-
vide as much as, is needed a', the
outset of the program and to taper
off appropriations toward the end.
Senator Taft appears to believe the
United .States should contribute the
minimum consistent with melting
our obligations under the North
Atlantic Treaty.
Dean Acheson, Secretary,' of
State, withheld comment when
asked about the conference com-
mittee cut of $1,452,270,000 under
the authorization requested by
President Truman. He said he was
having.a study made of the 3rob-
able effects of the reduction and
would reserve judgment until its
results were known.
Congress Ready to Vote
of
in-
of
an
he
,he
operational facilities:. in Alaska.
No details of the overseas cony
structioh'were revealed, but it was
understood that the Air Force
money would be used to improve
its system of bases around the
globe. A major part of the Army's
share will be spent in this country.
little noticed provision providing a
$100,000,000 revolving fund for,
loans to private' enterprise in
Western Europe to promote free
competition and increaseproduc-
tivity.
No new money is provided for
the purpose. Instead, .the Director
for.. Mutual Security is instructed
to administer defense support funds
in such a way as to build up $100,-
000,000 of counterpart funds. These
funds are local currencies deposited
in amounts commensurate to the
economic aid granted and in-the
disposition of which the United
States Is a joint trustee.
Sponsored by Senator Blair
Moody, Democrat of Michigan, the
provision calls. for -repayment of
these business and industry loans
into a revolving fund for future
lending. Increased productivity re-
sulting from the loans would be
passed on to consumers in the form
of lower prices and to workers in
higher wages.
The conference agreement, which
resolved differences between. the
Senate and House bills, is expected
to be taken up An the Senate to-
morrow and passed. The House
was prepared to take similar ac-
tion as soon as the Senate e:cted.
Representative John Vorys, Re-
publican of Ohio, who led the
House fight to reduce the author-
ization said today he would not
challenge the conference report.
dd nrood to into oPRtorrlnir rho
,on
:he
ew,
:he
ens
led
an
li.
Upstate Trip for Harriman
W. Averell Harriman, candidate
for the Democratic nomination for
President, will leave Friday night
on a one-day trip upstate, during
which he expects 'to talk with a
craLicm~r 9AI'15
Harrim wt 1 at end a rea - as
at Syracuse and on Saturday night
will speak at a dinner of the
Rrnnmo !'!nnnt