CHANGES RECOMMENDED BY THE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE, USAF IN NIE-9: TURKEY'S POSITION IN THE EAST-WEST STRUGGLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A000300020001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 13, 1951
• Content Type: NIE

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Changes Recoiamended bye Director of Intelligence, USAF
In N:C. T. IJIMPYOS POSITION IN TIE WT- +"T ST1WGGLE
(13 February 1951)
5. Itef erenc? 11-age 3i,Add the f ollov ing as Para 5, a, b, and c :
- Jy-a1
1. Hcference _l'a&e 1, fare 1,14a?, . Revise as follows:
+ -p event-the-t~ #s One of the main objectives of Turkish foreign
policy is to secure continued US assistance ands
20 I efsrence Page 2,, Par, 2. Add the following sentence to end of
paragraph: Howeverin this case Turkey would. still atterapf; to maintain a
policy of neutrality and, in any eventewould resist with force any direct
attack on Turkish territory.
Reference Pars. 3 and 4. Page 2. and to of Pa a Change to
Par. 5, a, and b, as indic4.ted in Par, 5 below.
4, Reference Pars. wand 6, Page 3, Change numbers of paragraphs
to 3 and 4.
Doe ment No,
5s In the event A*" I3oyiet -twee in the kiddle East (against
Iran, Irate and Syria on one flank of Turkey and'Against Greece on the
other do not result in general. war Turks ?e foreign olic would probably
be as follows:.
a. Turkey would probably not alter its alignment Alfto*ibs
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X"# even if it
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cut off, by Soviet conquest or absorption of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, In.
this event, Turkey would probably be obliged to adopt a more cautious
policy tonard the UtiSR but would almost certainly not grant tho USSR
territorial or other major concessions leading to -e~1o--sw a policy
DeYilw of Nis doouplsnt appeasement,
determined that a
Q CIA has no obleotton to doolass -
It oontales Information of CIA
Interest that most remak
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4w . b.
sating at the
the US failed to oppose militarily Satellite occupation of Greece or
refused to consider ~a t, attack on GreaceAeufficient justification
for against the USSR, then Turkey's attitude
would depend on broader strategic considerations. It the US
left no doubt of its determination to
support and supply Turkey to the utmost of its ability, Turkey would
probably still maintain its pro.US alignment, ., n the other hand,
Turkey here unable to obtain assurances of such
support, Turkey would probably attempt to adopt a -~xswri policy
a. In event that Turkey were outflanked completely b Soviet
control of Greece in the vest and jran Ira and S ria in the oast and
6
make substania].
R
f
concessions ' God, oil,
0
e
erence Page
Par, 7.
Change number of para
ra
h to 6
7.
Reference Pao 2, Par, 8,
g
p
.
Change number of para
ra
h to
d
g
p
7, an
revise to read as follows:
8v In the event of general war, Turkeys if not itself attacked,
probably would initially maintain a her non-belligeren44 eta4og but would
do everything compatible with that status to facilitate a Western victory,
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S. Reference Par, 1. P re 4. of DISCUSSION. Revise as follows:
1. Turkey is determined to .resist Soviet expansion, She t. e
Howwev rp, a US retreat into hemispheric isolationism, or the outfla of
SR through the control of Greece Iran riajL
~-o,_?_Uld force Turkey to abandon her pro-US alignment and attempt to maintain
ap 1icy_of neutrelit9a ee:d--eye-- a .-~- .. e-net-eea~lete3 eut--s?f--foie
9. Reference Faro 3. Page 5, navies first sentence to read as follows:
3. pAsec-tl3er One of the main objective! of Turkey C a
foreign policy is to obtain a US commitment to come to Turkey's defense in
event of a Soviet or Soviet-Satellite attack.
10. Reference Par. -Page 6. End Paragraph
4 4 at and of sentence,,
line 7. Change remainder of paragraph to 5, a, as indicated below in new
paragraph 5.
lie Add ne'wParagraph as follows,
5. In the event that possible Soviet moves in the Middle East
(against Iran. Iraq, and Syria on one flank of Turku and age net Greece on
the other do not-tesuzt in general war. Turke 's foreign policy would probably
be as follows,_
a. Men if its land communications with the West were virtually
out off by Soviet conquest or absorption of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, Turkey
would probably not alter its alignment with the Went. In this event,
Turkey would be obliged to adopt a more cautious policy toward the USSR,
a .)~
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A number of individuals not unacceptable to the USSR might be brought
into the government, and internal security measures would be tightened.
It is unlikely, however, that Turkey would agfee to territorial orother
concessions, request the US military mission to leave Turkey, or
otherwise appease the USSR.
/v b, Assuming that the USS11 has not ts, over Iran Iragv and
Syri a._and if -a ka~~-Sev#et-see e-R-e#--~~ra~as ~ -a - #~' the
US failed to oppose militarily Satellite occupation of Greece or refused
to consider a Soviet attack on Greece as sufficient justification for US
declaration of war against the USSR, then Turkey's attitude would depend
on broader strategic considerations, These considerations would includes
(a) the degree of military preparedness in Western Europe; (b) Western
military strength in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean; (a) the
attitude of the UPS toward Turkey and US strategic plans concerning Turkey;
and (d) the attitude of the Western Pourers in general and of the US in
particular toward Soviet aggression. We believe, however, that Turkey
would probably maintain its pro-US alignment, provided the US left no
doubt of its determination to oppose the USSR globally and to support and
supply Turkey to the utmost of its ability. If Turkey were unable to
obtain assurances of such support, it would probably attempt to adopt a
seutra &e policy of neutrality,
a, In the event that Turkey were outflanked completely bye
Soviet control of Greece in the westq and Iran,, Iraca, and Syria in the
east and eouththe turkur probably would conclude that the US would be
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,unablety a port and sup them in the event of wars In such aircum-
stances Turke would still attempt to maintain a olic of neutralit.
In this isolated position, however Turkey wouldRrobably be et;entualk
forced to make substantial territorial or other ma or concessions lac
to a policy -of appeasement.
12. Reference Par. 6, Page 6. Revise Par, 6 to read as follows:
6,#~-eke-end--s#ra~at.~aee-wte3~ The adoption b the US
of a policy of hemispheric defense would cause Turkey automatically to abandon
its pro-US alighments weu -iae_bhe-adept#en-icy-tire-I~B-sf-a-~aei e ea+#epheP#e
der-ohno
i 1 di i . r e n t w d
; 4-? However, even if Turkey were isolated from the ;eat in
this way, the Turks would continue to resist Soviet pressure, and would attempt
to maintain a -policy of neutrality. In time, a body of opinion favoring
appeasement and accommodation with the USSR would probably grow up and might
eventually dominate Turkish policy, but at present it appears more likely that
the Turks would -- if necessary fight for their independence, no matter how
suicidal such a course might be.
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