NIE-29/1: REVIEW OF THE CONCLUSIONS OF NIE-29 'PROBABILITY OF AN INVASION OF YUGLOSLAVIA IN 1951'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A000800010010-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 1998
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: May 2, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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C3HtRAL 114 J.'3LLIU IT CL AG JII V Y
OFiFIC ; OF LL TIOiTAL : `PII. i1'. S
2 !.lay 1951
SUI3JIG'Ia I113.29/- . VI V1 Or HE WIIGZUSIOIJS OF ITI 29 "PRO
I%DILI'LY 01? !AIT !1HVASIO11 OF YUC-OSL';\It. IIN 19511'
TILE FIIO13LM.I
To roviet7 the conclusions of 11I' 29,, *lprobability of an
Invasion of Yugo ,lwv-.a in 1951, ?! in the light of rocent
dovo1oprawits o
WI CLU3IOI15
'ore has beon no nC l7 ovidenco ainco the publication of
I;I 29 (20 Larch 1953.) enabling us to dotoria .n.c thether the
Kremlin has doc3.dod on an attack on Yugoslavia in 19510 There
have been no major changes in Soviet stronuth or di positions
that mould indicate the liko3.ihood of an attack by Soviet forces
in 19510 Hou very Satol-lite capabilities for inittati ( an attack
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on Yur oslavia tirith little or no corning have iaicroased9 and
Satellite r A-Ii t,axy 0roparat Lons are continuing Although
recent developments do not ap,~.)e r to rrarro cot t be conclusion
that a Satellite attack vd.U take place in 195ls9 or indicate that
such an attack is raoro liicaly this sprig ; than later in the ear,
they do ;;ive added w ahasiss to the conclusion of IIL29 that "an
attack on Yugoslavia in 1951 should be eciicidered a serious
~osathili.l,,
1n In 1L29 it as concludod, kiler al. that "thc
extent of _ ~o a W'~i wt rai l.i cart' w id propauanda preparations indicates
that an attack on Yugoslavia in 1951 should be con iidarod a serious
passibility,," A. numbor of dovelopnonts since the publication of
5 -29 (20 Larch 1951) call for a roviei of this conciuoiori
Among these devaLopnents are the foll,(Y' ing8
a heavy Soviet Ground force equ:ipnent continues to
arr'i?vc in Ilungary,, Dull;ariia,p ax?d i +wvaniav further
is j?area xag the balance of these Satellite forces3
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bm GQrtain DzulCariaf nilite ry units rocc atly ha
boon redeployed in' the direction of. the YuGOsLIV
borders and at pres3it at least 0110 BLU arian
tank division and four infantry divisions axe
disposed along; the Yugoslav borde-rj
ca -tq)anBion of th0 7BuJ aril and IIuzZ ar1an aruics is
contLnuin33
Jet aircraft have: rocentl.y been obsorved in all
of the 3uropean Sat ?i tss except . 1baniaj
ea Satellite airfields continue to be enlar3ed and
3rproved;
,,arty viarni.. 19 and/or ,Tound-colitrollod i ntorcept
radar has recently 'boon obsorvad in the Vicinity
of both Sofia and B dapest$
The nurrbczr of heavy Soviet 1111 guns in bOthi J}a1aria
and Hungary appears to bo L-icreasinCJ
h@ The apparc t food slhorta es and the ratio 11 ng of an
increasink; numbs- off" food products in the aouthe
Satell.Itas su ;est:s that stockpiling may ba under rray,$
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10
Yugoslav ate3aits diplonabic ral ations are
t 'kad by increasing f rictiona A number of
pro-Lasts have boon oxchan GJ. over re=rring
border :thaidents; sovera1 ecnsulates have
been olos ee, and diplomats expelled; and tie
Y7 oslavra have arr ax ed for the Suiss Govern
mint to ropreEieXit Yujoslav interests in the nt
that relations are savored betrroon Belgrade and
Budapest;
Sovic3t and 3at& lts propaganda attacks on
Is ;osL 1a have been intensified and have b& a
corn more spooiCic0 i irny of the 101-10m v vddch
lead proviously boa+ diroctod abroad arts xi ow beim
disso .natGc3. to Soviet and Satoll,ito audiancesp
and a specially to party and rd-Uta r pea~sonulee1o
The YuroslAv Army and Air Force conbi nue to date .oratep
and until. aIeetern a iilitarlr aid arrives in substantial
quant l.ties a Yu ;oslavia w:Ll 1. becorm increasi7 vul'
nerabl0 to Satedii. attack;
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IIjL h Yugoslav officials have privately
expressed Increased concern over the Pos-
sibility of an earl?y . Satellite ettaoke AI-
though the tiixIna of these statements suggests
that they nay in part have boon dosi. ;ned to
support the recent form Yugoslav requests for
arms and equipment from the US, the fact that
Yugoslavia is openly requesting such assistance
may also be interpreted as f tther evidence of
gcmuine fear of Satellite rrr'ressicm
3. Soma of these dove .oppracants, such as the mvenant of Ground
forces in Bel eria, the border incidents.. the .inform propaganda
caz aai.;,;n9 and the deterioration in Yugoslaw6ate]LUte, relations
point tamrd Yugoslavia as t e target either for a military attack
or for aai ntexssified war of nerves. 'tlars, homverq such as the
arrival of jest 'aiircraf-bm the airfield construction roL7anap and
evidence of stockp:3liY appear part of an over -al j 'ogram of ni 13.E
to r preparations throughout the Satellites and the Soviet Zones
of Germany and Auatriao
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