NIE-32: EFFECTS OF OPERATIONS IN KOREA ON THE INTERNAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST CHINA, DATED 10 JULY 1951

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A000900010002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 8, 1951
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP701012A000900010002-8
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SECURITY INFORtdATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTT13ATES
14
ONI DECLASSIFICATION/RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS ON FILE
8 November 1951
M, 40RANDUM FOR T}t INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY CO1 4ITTEE
SUBJECTS NIE-32: Effects of Operations in Korea on the Internal
Situation in Communist China, dated 10 July 1951
ENCLOSURE: Revision proposed by the Office of Naval Intelligence
1. The Board of National Estimates has reviewed the revision
proposed by the Office of Nava- Intelligence and forwards it for
your consideration.
2. The Board concurs in the proposed revision and recor+mends
that the words "thus far" be Inserted in the next to last sentence:
"Western trade restrictions have had little apparent effect h,~us_
far on the volume of China's trade, although much of the trade
is now being conducted on a clandestine basis."
3. It is requested that concurrence be telephoned to the
undersigned by 12:00 Tuesday, 13 November.
25X1A9a
Executive Secretary
Distribution "A" DOCUMENT NO.
1.+O CHiANJ' E IN CLASS.
JOB NO,7_S?PJ1J- _ I I DECLASSIFIED
GLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
ROTC NO. J ----------- AUTI-i FIR 70-2
4p, FOLDER NO, -L---_----
DATE XALeA/.-REVIEWER:
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- ajT._EC1t CORRECT-0- TO
NIE-32: E'FE-ffS fJF t ATT4I IN Kf iEA (21
THE INTERNAj: SITD9-1 ,..IN. CM 15T RDA
This estimate was approved by the IAG on 5 July and published on 10
July 1951? Paragraph 8, Part II discusses the Chinese Communist foreign
trade with the West. The third sentence of this paragraph states as
follows : "Data on Western flag shipping with Hong Kong and Chinese Com-
munist ports since 1 April indicate that such shipping has fallen off
significantly and we believe that the volume of trade has correspondingly
declined."
The foregoing was based upon information on this shipping received prior
to 1 July 1951. Subsequent information an shipping during the second quarter
calendar 1951'indicatess that Paragraph 8, Part 31, NlE-32 is incorrect.
The following table depicts Western Maritime Trade with China for the
31.9
s
2nd M 112K
jet
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
T
No, S T No hi Known, ownn,
479 2,203,102 710 3,5 ,551
NorE: (1) "Known G.T," includes oci,y vessels for which tonnage is known,
and does not represent an estimate or a complete figure.
(2) The above tonnage figures comprise an absolute minimum. The
actual tonnage engaged in Communist trade is substantially greater.
(3) Figures in this memorandum include only ships of 1,000 gross
tons or over.
first two quarters, 1951:
ate. Rewri
"? NEXT REVIEW DATE. _
NO CHANCE IN CLASS. I
TOP-SECRET [?OX IOC __ _ _ ^ DECLASSIFIED
SECURITY IN ORMA.TIOkI _ _ CLASS. CHANGED To: TS s
1 n ins badst, Smuggling
on a.g
ch o f _ bin
-laft and trade from Communist and non-cooperating non-Communist nations w*a Pre-
babAy has aona"cnty increase anal?w~-s?eet-fie-seems-eseae-tl~e-e~eet-e
less?-ress r et e>:~e~JOB NO.
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are-a~sskei~#eas-v4~~-'Pesos-ass-~a~areasd#rtg~j?sr~+rates-a?~ee~h-enw~e~n~.ssb-Cls~aa~e
Ipe -e+ie s t ess-dt?r#ng?fil-e-s~sma ceder-a?-#-kae-yearY 12gtern trade, reptr m
the volytane of r e 11e-bs eve-+khu#-~ess#sera t ede-ress~r e~ sae
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"Foreign trade with the West was at high levels in 1950. We estimate
that during the first quarter of 1951 this trade at least remained at the
1950 levels, primarily because of the sharp increase in imports chiefly of
strategic materials through Hong Kong.. Data on Western flag shipping with
Hong Kong and Chinese Communist ports since 1 April indicate that such Ship-
i
i
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SECURITY INFO MATION
Suggested OIR Revision of ONI Proposal for NIE 32/1
"Foreign trade with the West was at high levels in 1950- We estimate
that during the first half LG;qv*rbw-J of 19519 this trade at least remained
at9 and probably was higher than, 1950 levels, primarily because of the
sharp increase in imports, chiefly of strategic materials through Hong Kong.
Similarly, data on Western flag shipping with Hong Kong and Chinese Communist
ports during the second quarter of 1951 indicate that such shipping has
L
eadily indreased with a corresponding increase in the volime of trades
st
During the third quarter of 1951, however, recorded exports rrom Hong Kong iv
to Communist China declined sharply, presumably due to the application of
more stringent Western export controls. But there is considerable evidence
to indicate that Communist China has been able part to offset the effects
of Western trade restrictions through increased imports from the Soviet bloc,
from non-cooperating non-Communist nations, and through smuggling channels."
JOB NO. 29LtLQL _ .
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