DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE:36: BURMA: PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVAL OF THE PRESENT REGIME ( FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE IAC REPRESENTATIVES)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001100010023-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2000
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: May 5, 1951
• Content Type: NE

Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R0l012A001100010023-2
'' i y 195,1
SUJECT: DRAFT TL' .1S OF RE R NCE: 111L .36: BUM, A:
PT 3PECTS FOR SU '71VAL OF THE PRMI `IT RMMIE
(For Consideration by the IAC Representatives)
To esti.ma te the prospects for the present non-Coma .n3.st
regime to wive insurgent mli.tarw ope'ations, and to est:
mate Chinese Communist i.rtent5,cs and capabilities to inter-
vene, directly or indirectly In support of the insurgent foreer
Indefinite continuetior, of indecisive w w.fare in Koi ea,
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XONS BEAE ttIG ON TIT:,,' PROBLEM
1. CAPABILITIES Of TE : I31JRi ESE GOVERNIEN.1`
A- Sizes ui,j nf-- r ispositi{eta, experience, train,, g,
aM re tiabif tq or rxLlitxr7 foxcee.
B. Capabilities iaast uncoordinated insurgent open
at;ians, a;inst ccxminster insurgent operations,
and against d1 aett Chineao Comtm mist invasinon.
C- Degree of gover ant a uyj
to resist and capacity
to retain present politi . base of support 'aster
ad,verge sit m8tances..
II? CAPABILITIES AIJl TPJ~'E 1TIONS OF I3URt4E INSURGENTS
A. Present t apebilitiess of Individual insurgent forces.
B. P t speeta for coordinated anti- nt action by
insurgent foes,
1. E e of proeent 60oroyration, if any.
2. Extent of wilLingnese to cooperate,
3. Probable effeetivenesn of such combined iaaetz -
oYrtiona as acs likely to emerge.,
tt . Chi nesce e t ea id z degree and nature of aid or
Bch incur nt forces would seek or sec pt;
wa-atical effect an i ntrgent capabilities.
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MAW 1001F
III. CAPABILITIES OF THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS TO INTERVENE
Co
Indications of present nature and level of Chine-,is
I
Communist . assistance, if any, to insurgent group,
Chinese Commwnist capabilities to provide materiel
and technical assistance.
2. Capabilities to deliver materiel,
Capabilities of Chinese Communists to intervene
openly,
lo Number of available forces, assuming present
commitments elsewhere.
2? Number of available forces, assuming an in-
creased commitment in Korea?
3o Number of available forces, assuming new cc-
mitments against Taiwan or Indochina or for
containing domestic dissidents,
IV, CHINESE COMMUNIST INTENTIONS TOV ARD BUM A
Ultimate intentions; probable nature of any Chimes.
Soviet agreements regarding Burma,
Effect, if any, of war in Korea on Chinese intentions,,
c-3-
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C. importasoe of Fla Ii Chinese Coam=ist .sou--
T.atitrx ! relative to Indochina ard Taiwan.
Probable purest pl*rt and taatiosd
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