DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE-36: BURMA: PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVAL OF THE PRESENT REGIME (FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE BOARD)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001100010025-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2000
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: May 1, 1951
• Content Type: NE

Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R0l012A001106 10025-0
3. May 7.951
SUBJECT: DRAFT TERM OF REF' NGE t NIE-36 s Burma t
Prospects for Survival of the Pres`e ?
`a-'
-
(For ons e' ration
by
To estimate the prospects for the present non-Coist
regime to survive insurgent military operations, and to esti--
mate Chinese Communist intentions and capabilities to intervene
directly or indirectly in Support of the insurgent forces.
Indefinite continuation of indecisive warfare in Koreas
CLASS. CHANGED TOI TS S O
NEXT REVIEW DATES -- --
DOCW4ENT NO.
NO CHANGE F!N CLASS. 1]
X DECLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R01(f1WO(M1 010025-0
PATE; -1) EVIEWER:_(.K)9,256
 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0
P
QUESTIONS 8: M"a ON THE PROt.3L i
1. CAPA 3ILITI3 OF THE BURI' SE GOVT R?NT
A. Sizes equipment, disposition, experience, training,
and reliability of military forces.
B. Capabilities against uncoordinated insurgent opP.~r
ations, a ;ainat coordinated insurgent operations,
and against direct Chinese Com ist invasion.
C. Degree of goverrsioent'e will to resist and capacity
to retain present political base of support under
increasing 2,y adverse circumstances.
II. CAFA$ILITT.ES 'TD IM10TIONS IF SUMME INSURGENTS
A. Present capabilities of individual insurgent forces.
B. Prospects for coordinated anti-ant action by
insurgent forces.
1. Extent; of present operation, if ax .
2. Extent of willingness to cooperate.
3. Probable effectiveness of such combined ineur-
gent open Lions as are likely to emerge.
0. Chinese Commudst, aid: degree and nature of aid or
control which insurgent forces vou3d seek or accept;
practical ex"fect upon i su geurt capabilities.
Approved For Release 2001/~ RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0
 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0
v./ 'qw
III. .APAbBI]' (TIES OF THE CHMESE CO PASTS TO INTERVENE
CNEXPLY OFt
A. medications of present nature and level of Chinese
Comm nist assistance, if ar+ r, to insurgent .asp.
B. Chinese Commieat capabilities to provide materiel
and technical assistance.
1. Nature and extent of assistance available.
2. Capabilities to delay mteriel..
C. Capabilities of Chinese Coununiate to inter
open.
1. Nunber of available forces, asw=ingg present
co x itmenbs el.sewher .
2. Neer of available forms, amming an in-
creased commitment in Korea.
comi-
3. Nw4m of available forces, aasundng new
.witrents against Taiwan or Indochina or for.
containing domestic dissidents.
IT. CH E CO)( VNIST Ip0'I'EPFTIONS TOWARD BUR11A
A. Ultimte intentiona; probable nature of w W Chimes-
Soviet Soviet aesnte regarding Buxom..
B. Efffect, if any, of war in Korea on Chinese in-
tentions.
Approved For Release 2001/ ?CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0
 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0
Nwi
C. Impox'tance of D in Chinese Cyst colnu-
3ations, r& ti re to Indochina and Tai*n.
D. Probsble press plena and tactics.
Approved For Release 2004 1'A-RDP79R01012AO01100010025-0