NIE-36/1: PROSPECTS FOR THE SURVIVAL OF NON-COMMUNIST REGIME IN BURMA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001100020006-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 13, 1951
• Content Type: NIE

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CENTRAL IIITELLIGEIJCE AQ ENCY
13 November 1951.
SU3JECT: NIE.36/l s PROSPECTS FOR VIE SURVIVAL 0 A rJOU.
CO!L..UU1I:5T 2LGI:rTE I:. 3URL!A
To review the conclusions of f;IE..36, "Prospects for
Survival of a 1-Jon-Communist 2egine in Burma" dated 1 August
1951, with reference to the t_ning of possible control over
part or all of Surma by the lhameoe Communists.
la In IJIE_36 it was estimated that the Communists "wil.l
probably be able within the next year or two to achieve de fact(}
control over a considerable area of northern Burma" and that if
covert Chinese Communist aid to the Burmese Communists continuer
"the Burmese Government is not likely to survive in the long
unless it greatly increases its political and military strength*"
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2. :'Zecent reports indicate th-, t both the political and
military situation may be deteriorating more rapidly than had
been estimated in IIIE..36. As anticipated the Chinese Communists
have continued their support of the Burmese Communists. In
addition there is evidence that the Burmese Communists are
making progress toward collaboration with the Karen: thus in-
creasing the over-all capabilities of the insurgents. Further-
more, the Thakin Nu Government is becoming even more unstable
than indicated in IiIE-.36. The pro-Communist 3urnta I'lorkers and
Peoples Party has become increasingly effective in unifying
left-wing opposition to the Burmese Government and in hampering
the government's operation a.Wainst the inaurVents. The left-wing
Socialist leader, Da Swe, may exorcise his increasing influence
to replace Thakin Nu with a pro..Connnunist Prime ;Sinister.
3. We therefore conclude that the Burmese Communists may
achieve control of large areas of northern Burma within the next
six to eight months and that there is a possibility that the
Burmese Government may be re-aaced by a pro-Communist regime
within the next few months.
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