NIE-36/1: PROSPECTS FOR THE SURVIVAL OF A NON-COMMUNIST REGIME IN BURMA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001100020008-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 1998
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: November 8, 1951
• Content Type: NIE

Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012A00110000020008-8
SECURITY INFDI .ON
CENTRAL I N T E L L I O 9 N C E A 0 E N C Y
8 November 1951
SUBJECTt NIFr-36/l: PRGSP1TS FOR THr SURVIVAL OF A NON-
COMMUNIST REGME IN BURMA
To review the conclusions of NIFt,36 "Prospects for
Survival of a Non?Commnist Regime in Burma" dated 1 August 1953
1, In NIE-36 it was estimated that the Communists "will
probably be able within the next year or two to achieve de facto
control over a considerable area of northern Burman and that
if covert Chinese Communist aid to the Burmese Communists
continues "the Burmese Government is not likely to survive in
the long run unless it greatly increases its political and
military strength,"
2. Since the publication of NIE.36, reports from generally
reliable sources indicate that the situation in Burma Is
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012A001100020008-8
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012AO011000020008-8
*4WO'
deteriorating more rapidly than had been anticipated. The
substance of these reports is as follows:
as The Chinese Communists are increasing their
logistic support to the Burmese Communists;
b4 Considerable numbers of Chinese advisory
personnel are now in northern Burma., including
many with Communist military units;
co Substantial numbers of Burmese Communists are
receiving training and equipment in Communist
China;
d4 The strength of the organized insurgents is
increasing (the current Burmese Government
estimate is more than three times as large as
it was a few months ago);
eo The Communists are making progress toward an
alliance with the Karens;
fo The Thakin Nu Government is becoming increasingly
unstable and there is an immediate danger that
Thakin Nu may be replaced by the left-wing
Socialist leader, Ba Swe, who is closely associated
with the Communists.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100020008-8
 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100020008-8
3o Therefore, unless the Burmese Government (1) can
exert a greater effort against the Communist insurgents than
it has in the past, (2) can be induced to accept substantial
outside aid without delay, and (3) is prepared to meet the
minimum demands of the Karens, we estimate that the Communists
may achieve control over large areas of northern Burma within
the next few months and control over the whole of Burma within
the next year.
Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP79R01012AO01100020008-8