POTENTIAL ECONOMIC GAINS OF THE U.S.S.R. RESULTING FROM THE ACQUISITION OF CONTINENTAL WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001200010010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: December 10, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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-,-I If .41MV1=X.LT MP'.IC GAINS OF THE U.S.S.R. RESULTI1G FROM T
SITION OF CONTIfENTAL bFSTERN EURC
2r p
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1. CQ r eicln
It is estimated that the U.S.S.R. through the acquisition of
Continental Western Europe could increase its potential in annual pro-
duction of electronic equipment by mid-1952 by 275 percent. (Estimated
Production by mid-1952, in millions United States dollars, within the
Soviet Bloc 252,5, in Continental Western Europe 695.Q)
2. Dpji
q1L
In order to logically express the over-all output of the
electronic industry of the Soviet Bloc countries and of Continental
Western Europe the best common denominator is a monetary unit of measure.
The United States dollar, expressed in millions, was selected. No other
single unit was considered suitable to measure the output of an industry
that Includes extremes in size, weight, cost of materials, and complex-
items of manufacture of its and items and components, detailed specific
information on which is lacking for the Soviet Bloc.
a. For the purpose of analysis, the electronic Industry was
divided into four main categories: (1) tubes; (2) radio equipment;
(3) telephone and telegraph equipment; and (4) cable and wire.
b. The study as compiled divides the electronic equipment
industry Into two distinct production stages. The first stage being the
period from the present to mid-1952, the second stage, the periods ending
in mid-1953 and mid-1954,reepectively. For Continental Western Europe,
electronic equipment production and capacities, after Soviet acquisition,
is estimated to continue on about the same basis as before until mid-
1952. From mid-1952 to mid-1953 and from mid-1953 to mid-1954, the
second stage, it is estimated that there will be a very considerable
increase in production output. This estimated increase in production
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output is based on the assumption that raw materials will be available
together with the skilled-personnel required to place production
operations on a two or three shift basis. (All capacity figures used
In this study are based on single-shift operation.)
a. The more obvious bottlenecks which may accrue, under Soviet
acquisition, to curtail production output or to prevent estimated pro-
duction increases, are critical raw materials and skilled workers.
Shortages of electric power and inadequacies of transportation facilities
may also prove to be major bottlenecks in production output.
3. S to tiA+a Summary
The attached tabulations show in millions United States dollars
the estimated capacit^.es and production outputs for both the countries
of the Soviet Bloc and for the countries of Continental Western Europe.
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A VAILABLE
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POTENTIAL ECOI OMIC GAITS OF USSR RESULTING FROM THE
ACQUISITION OF CONTINENTAL WESTERN EUROPE
NIE-40
Section II-B>12, Electronic Equipment
ECRET
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SECURITY INFO 6MgiiB
Tab7.e of Ccn t?nts
I. Table -- Estimated Production and Production
Capacity, Soviet Bloc and Western Europe
II. General Dis^ussion
Individual Country Discussion
SECIJ!TY lNFOhftATi
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 Approved For Release 2005/05/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A001200010010-5
I. E" S tom' PRODIClIOI;, PRODUCTION CAPACITY, AMID INTTk;91'ORY
SOVIET BLOC AND WESTERN EUROPE
Cc?r?_?-,try
Estimated Est. annual
Produc?ti on production
195 rate kid-1952
(See T~[e ,i ot`
---~2) #3)
116.E 152.0
ite
1951
1,3, O
14.0
24L0
25.0
X7.0
2-.il
2 7.0
3 O 0
R,: r i r,
3~Z.garia
A:. - aria
Communist China
North Korea
Inalgnii`4:int
Ins'i gnificatt
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nsigr.~.~ lc~:.nv
1.0 1.5
Insignificant
Unit, Million United States dollars,
(See footnote #1)
Peak annual Estimated production
production capacity Estimated an ual
World War II Erik.-1951 Mid--52 production rate
(See footnote (See footnote #4) 11 L--d 53 Mid--54
1951
75.0
97.0
197.0
252.0
13.0
14.0
1.6,0
19.0
2=+.0
25.0
41..0
5'+.0
27.0
27.0
4o.0
53.0
27.0
30.0
37,0
44.0
2.0 2,0 4.0 4.O
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 Approved For Release 2005/05/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A001200010010-5
1. United States cLcli veLues used in this table ar on r of
comparable United . t:?tes electronic -,products at ';.?.r ent G:holesz?,] e vices, with
the exceptions of totals for '9elgiur"i, It?.l' Y.-therlendS, Or'.':