PROPOSED PROCEDURE FOR SECTION II-B STAGE I

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001200010038-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 38
• Content Type: STUDY

Approvor Release 2005/05/12: CIA-RDP79i 012A001200010038-5
CONFIDENTIAL
PROPOSED PROCEDURE FOR SECTION II-B
ST AGE I
The study of each subject, except where otherwise noted,
will be prepared in two parts: the first part a statistical
tabulation, "Estimated Production, Production Capacity, and
Inventory, Soviet Bloc and Western Europe," and the second part
a brief textual discussion of the statistics. The table will
be organized under the headings as indicated on the following
page.
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The textual description will be organized under the following
headings:
1. Prod~_ction
Brief outline of the production trend during 1951 and
first half of 1952, with explanatory notes, including degree of
reliability of the figures quoted in the accompanying statistical
table. When pertinent to the subject, attention should also be
given to a comparison of the varied types and qualities of specific
end products in the present Soviet bloc countries and Western Europe.
No discussion is necessary concerning the column for peak
World War II production. These figures are merely given as an
indication of the magnitude of production of the various industries
of the countries concerned when recently mobilized for maximum
military output.
Units: Metric tons, except as follows:
Electric power: KWH for production; KW for
installed capacity.
Machinery; Preferably units (by types);
tons and values where useful and
available.
Tires: Units.
Transportation: Units (by types where appropriate).
Carrying capacity in ton/kilometers.
2. Inventory
Brief discussion of the method of developing inventory
figures, including degree of reliability.
3i Production Capacity
Discussion to include references to method of arriving at
capacity figures for 1951 and mid-1952 shown in the accompanying
table. It is realized that in many cases the basis for the capacity
figures will not be known since they might be taken from official
and private publications in which capacity figures are frequently
given without explanation. In other cases, the only method avail-
able in obtaining a capacity figure is to use the year of peak
production (or the month of peak production where it is maintain-
able) as an indication of maximum capacity. Only seldom, is it
possible to state whether the capacit,- is based on 24-hour working
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5.
shift, 16-hour, or 8-hour. If possible, however, capacity figures
should reflect the use of bottleneck facilities at maximum rate,
i,e., 24-hour working shift and adequate supply of manpower, raw
materials including fuel and power, and all intermediary, component
materials required in the manufacture of the end product. Quoted
capacity figures given in the accompanying table should be indicated
by am asterisk. Estimated capacity figures should be explained.
4?
uction Rates. Mid-1.9.53. Mid-19
Using the assumptions as a general guide to develop this
section, discuss the factors which are likely to govern production
rates as compared with mid-52 capacity, such as: availability of
raw materials (domestic and imported), fuel, labor, transport,
storage; also scientific, technical, managerial, administrative,
and political limitations. On the other hand, consider possibilities
of expansion of bottleneck facilities and specify what would be
required for such expansion. An effort should be made to determine
the extent to which raw material resources and manpower in the present
Soviet bloc and Western Europe could be made to complement each other.
These and other limiting factors which may be considered would form
the basis for the production estimate4' shown in the accompanying
table.
STAGE I
In Stage II of the project, the sector analyses will be co-
ordinated and inconsistencies between the various sectors eliminated
so far as possible. An allowance will then be made for minimum
requirements for the maintenance of the basic economy. (The
estimate of minimum civilian requirements will be guided by
experience in World War II and postwar experience in the Satellite
countries). The residual will represent Western Europe's net
contribution to the Soviet economic potential for war.
The results of Stage II will be submitted to the sector
analysts for comment.
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