LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001300040002-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: NIE

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Latin America *
1. /With the exception of Argentina and Guatemala, the? Most coun-
tries of Latin America will probably continue generally pro-Western and
cooperative with the West during the period of this estimate. The two
principal exceptions are Argentina and Guatemala whose cooperation is
severely circumscribed by the strong influence of ultra-nationalism in
the former and Communism in the latter country. Eventually the trend
toward exaggerated nationalism, particularly when exploited by Communism
/if it continuesL7 will if it continues seriously affect Hemisphere
solidarity and US security interests in Latin America. For the next
several years, however, change is not likely to be so far reaching as
to reduce substantially the present degree and scope of Latin American
cooperation.
2. There is unlikely to be any great change in Latin American
military cooperation. The bilateral military assistance agreements
entered into with Brazil and Uruguay similar to those already in force
with five other Latin American countries will probably be ratified /,
and anl. A military assistance agreement will probably be concluded
with the Dominican Republic. There is /no7 little likelihood that any
other nation now having a US Military Mission would follow Argentina's
example and allow the Mission contract to lapse. However, the Latin
See NIE-70, "Conditions and Trends in Latin America Affecting
US Security," 12 December 1952, especially paragraphs 6, 36-!t3,
and 53-62.
State Dept. review completed
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SECRET 2.
American countries will generally continue to take a limited view of
the importance of Hemisphere defense, and their cooperation will be
affected by self-seeking and by some apprehension /toward7 concerning
their neighbors, leading to demands for /national7 forces designed to
serve national interests rather than the types of forces best suited to
overall planning. for Hemisphere defense.
3. No Latin American country is likely to change its policy on
granting bases in time of peace, at least without a substantial quid
fro quo. /fihis applies particularly to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador
(with respect to the Galapagos Islands), and Brazil-7 Although the
Latin American countries will remain generally willing to ship strategic
materials to the US, difficulties are likely to continue, especially
over price.
1. Although Latin American countries will probably continue
generally to cooperate in East-West trade restrictions, any decline
in the price of raw materials could lead to increased unwillingness
to comply with /pressure for violatin7 the Battle Act. in the absence
of adequate US compensation. Chile, with copper, and Bolivia, with tin,
would be in this event particularly likely to /increase7 seek outlets
for their exports in the Soviet /]Tloc trade7orbit /in this event-7
5. Latin American support for the Korean War is almost certain
to continue passive/, and there' may be a total withdrawal of Colombian
forces, partly for internal reasons, so that there would remain no
Latin American forces there-7 Colombia, the one Latin American country
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3.
with troops in Korea, has recently raised the issue of withdrawing its
forces. Within the UN, however, the Latin American countries will
probably continue to support the US on the POW issue.
6. In the UN generally, while Latin American cooperation on
basic East-West issues such as Korea will probably continue strong,
Latin American countries may tend to attempt an independent line
especially if there is division between the/ITS and UK-7 Western Powers.
On colonial issues, the Latin American countries may support the Arab-
Asian bloc to some degree, but such support would /not extend to cases
of doubtful legality, such as Tunisia, and the Latin American attitude
would also be affected by the identity of the colonial power involved,
being friendly to France but hostile to the UK or Belgium.7 be tempered
y(l) fear of warms (2) unwillingness to aid the Soviet Bloc in the
attainment of its objectives and (3) attitude toward the colonial power
involved. /There is little chance of log-rolling by the Latin American
and Arab-Asian groups, each for the other, since the Latin American
countries have no major issues that can be used for trading purposes.T
7. Latin American diplomatic relations with the Soviet Bloc are
likely to center around simple questions of diplomatic recognition.
There is some possibility that Brazil may eject the two satellite
missions now accredited there. Overall, it is unlikely that the Soviet
Bloc will be able to add to its diplomatic representation, and it may
lose additional posts.
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8. With respect to internal Communism, /ar 7 most Latin American
governments are likely to /take firmer measuresL7 continue their anti-
Communist policies and there may be joint action in such limited fields
as restriction of travel. However, such measures7 anti-Communist
controls are likely to be balanced by increased Communist opportunities
in some countries. Thus, Brazil has recently /enacted an/ tightened its
anti-Communist lair/7s . /T;ut7 However the close identification of Communists
with Nationalists makes it difficult to take effective measures/j-7in Brazil
as well as in other countries. /end the Prestes "Army of Liberation"
may be an increasing threat.? In Argentina, the official Communist Party
has recently /$aken a position less hostile to7 announced support of
Peron, and the Peron government /may avoid any action whatever against
Communists.7 will probably continue its policy of relative toleration
of Communist activities. In Guatemala, the situation of Communist
penetration of government is likely to continue as at present, with some
possibility of further Communist gains from the dislocation /of7/the7
caused by radical implementation of the new agrarian laws. Despite
possible Communist gains, the Bolivian government is /not taking/ for
the present, at least, unable to take effective anti-Communist measures
/and is unlikely to do so-7 In other countries such as Venezuela and
Cuba, the governing /military men7 groups will act strongly against
overt Communist activity, but the Communists could nonetheless gain in
influence through present instability or an overthrow of the government.
by extremists.
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SECRET 5.
9. In general, Latin American attitudes on the East-West conflict
are unlikely to be more affected than at present by Soviet Bloc
propaganda and tactics within the range of the assumed courses of
action. Local Communist efforts to merge their efforts with extreme
Nationalist groups will tend to /increase7 inflate Communist strength,
as in Brazil, and Communists will probably continue to contribute
significantly to anti-American sentiment. Should Soviet Bloc tactics
succeed in creating serious divisions between the US and Western Europe,
on the issue of immediacy of Soviet threat, Latin America might tend
to take the European point of view, which would probably mean a
relaxation of defense efforts and cooperation. Latin American popular
groups will continue moderately susceptible. to Soviet peace propaganda.
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