COMMENTS ON ORAL CONTRIBUTION TO NIE-45:

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001300050014-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 1999
• Sequence Number: 14
• Content Type: SUMMARY

25X1A9a
Approved For ReleaserW0/08/29: CIA-RDP79RO1012AO0130W0014-6
Consents on Oral Contributions to NIE-45:
1. Ref. effects in Burma of 00008 western reverses in Indochina... In
view of stiffened attitude of Burmese overnment toward Burmese Communists, clear
denounciation of communism by Burmese Socialist at Asian Socialist Conference and
on other occasions, do not believe that Burmese accomdation would be "almost
certain " Burmese attitude would depend on prospect of effective assistance from
the West and India, on the effectiveness of western counter-measures to a reverse
in Indochina, and on the nature of Chinese Communist participation at the time
ix- the Indochina development.
2. Ref effects in Malaya...Do not believe that internal revolt could develop
to "unmanageable proportions" If large numbers of local Chinese became active
sympathizers or joined rebels in the field, they would not be able to subsist in
the jungle as do the small bands at present. They would have to come out in the
open to fight and 50,000 British troops with superior equipment would knock them
off. Futhermore, if situation became really desparate, British could employ farce
much less discriminately than they de ROM now and coerce the bulk of the Chinese
population into passive state until time of an actual CC Invassion..which is
another question.
3. Ref para 6....paragraph as a whole adds up to almost nothing concrete.
We are unable to determine the practical extent of Indian influence in Burma.
OIR normally alleges that it is considerable, but cannot cite direct evidence.
Although Burma's foreign policy appears to parrallel that of India in many respects
at the present time, it appears that Burma is developing its'foreign policy on its
own, in response to its own peculiar requirements and circumstances. If the paragraph
simply means to say that if India went ~'ommunist, Purma would . be greatly effected,
?filfO that is certainly true...but in that case, why not say it.
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79R01012A001300050014-6
 Approved For ReleaseQ, 00/08/29: CIA-RDP79RO1012AO01300Q `O014-6
Para 9 .... (see also comments above on Karma) Burmese mines whisk supply wolfram
could not produce substanial tonnages during period of this estimate., even if
removed from Karen control tomorrow. Burmese oil production under most favorable
circumstances hardly bears m.ention.and there are no prospects of significant
increases in either refined or crude products during period of this estimate.
a
General... It is difficult to comment on this paper since it is not a draft of
an estimate, but supposedly only the summary of oral contributions made by the
agencies. It covers a great deal of ground not germane to the subject problem,
and there are many places in which we would alter, in varying degrees, the emphasis
or shade of meaning of sentences and paragraphs if it were an estimate,,.
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79R01012A001300050014-6