NIE-49: SWEDEN'S POSITION IN THE EAST-WEST CONFLICT (REVISED DRAFT FOR BOARD CONSIDERATION)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A001500020018-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 16, 1999
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: February 25, 1952
• Content Type: NIE

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SEC~IRST~ I~?'OR'~TIOI~
G'bN'FIDENTIAL'
CENTR~.L INTELT,I4ENCE AC~ENCi
O~'FZCE ~?F YdAT~ONAL ESTTD~ATFS
2s February 1952
SUBJECT: N 9 a a'~E~N tS P(?SI~'ION IN TAE EAaT-fi~EST CONFLICT
(Revised draft for Board can~sideration) .
? Ta assess: (a} S~eden~e etrateg3.c impax?tanae; (b) its present
pol3.cy in the East~est conflict; (a) the posaaibilities e~f a change, ira
~hia~ po7Licy; and (d) the cona~equencee of S~de~n a>s pos;sible policies to
the N~T9 pourers and the t1SSRo
DoCUMcNT Nc~.
NO CHANGc IN CLASS. ~ _~
^ DECLASSIFIED ?
~,rQNL'L~(,S~OAT,~3 CLASS. CHANCED TO: TS S ~C p~'"~ .
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ~! ~~
RUTH: tiR~~~~70-2
aATE:.y~~~`'~"REVIEWER: ~~ - =~G
1, S~redanga geographic location, sizeable eoonomic resouraess and
considerable militar3r poteaa~ial giae it substantiatl. strategic importanoe
to both NATO and the USSN o O~ chi?~' 3~portance is Sweden's potexat~.al
role in the defense of Soancii.na~.a~ and g~articular3y Nor>raay9 against a
So~riet attacks
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CONFIDENTTA~
2 e 11ss~a~.t~s its ga?o~J6'estean and r~nt3~armnunist out~.oo~~ Sdett .I
pxobably c~.~.ng to its ~a~1~3.aYace~grse?f ~po~.ic~ as 3,+~n~, as ~oss3.ble~ e~sn ~.n
ev~at o~
3o kIo~vex~ S~den m3.~ht ~o~.n the 1~T0 ~owex?$ in e~rent of a Sovimt
attaC~s on ~ox~raYs gx~o~3.dad that the PTO f'osces ooul.d ac~ae gt~.~ls~.~* to #.ts
dei'ense, P~axec~+'~sxe Sid?n ~ou~.d eexta~,n~,.,~ ~Y,~ht i~' itselg attackeda
The oh3e~ oanseq~nee a~ S~den~s neutxalit,~ F?~3.o3* is twat it
~e~xriously haffi~ers the devslop~tent o~ ~sdequ~.te S~aradia~,~r~.ara de#en~sc~s and
.eaves S~an~tinavia I~.~h13r ~rul.xaexa~al.e to a Sov~.et attack a Cintil tYae N~i`~0
~ontexe the~ss~ves axe stxon~ ?rto~kt to doferad at least ~ox~, tho _acti.ve
pas?t~.oit>at3o~s caf ~~v~scilth foxes ~3.~ht ~re:~l be essent~.al to the de.~exaes o~
' ka~ ~aazd~.nrian base a.xeas in c~tent of ~ax~
? ~ ? Ii' Sv~den xe3.ned netat~al in event of ~r ~h~.le the tiSSR ~onp~ed
. be
~e~x~~'s S~d?n t~ro~ld~eff?~etively 1sol.ate~~ i're~n tY~ 'Vest o Ita ~?a4~zable.
made ~3.th the 'hest would b~ aut off and it ~oasld be ~'orceds ~ande~ ~.et
?~c~ono~.c .gxe~ss~ to ~? acn ~spox?taaat ~ontx3.but~.or~ to the So~.et ~aas?
~-conoo
CON~rTnENT
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CONFIDENTIAL
6p Cnce Nl~1TU becc~es strong enough to defend ~tor~ray in event of waz~s
Swedish neutrality would~no longer be so disadvantageous to the I1~iT0 po~rore
-and S~d~,n could no longer be wholly cut off fro~a the ti"~est, ,Scaedish
neutrality would ertill benefit the USSR, ho~evar,~ as it ~rould deny the t~4'ost
thecae of a~sed3sh fca?ces and bases for possible .offensive ope~tions against
the Sort~,et Bal.tio f~.anko
a
mas~US~~~~t
z~ DENes sTR~~c~e T~NC~
1. ~ Geogra~hio 0 Ths Scandinav 3,an geninsu~.a 9 of which Sweden forms the
~g:~eater ~art~ 3.3.es across the most direot air a~prca~,ches to !'.'esterrt USSR
from ai7c bases in North Aaasrica~ Grr~eni.and~ Icela~~ ar~d the U~~ or frc~
carriers 3n the NQr~eg~ian Seas Conversel3'~ it lies athwaa^~t the air nth f~c~
So~riEt bases in t~ ~oscov~ area to ~aost of the UI{~ C~en'l.ande Iceland9 and
m
North America, It ~cowl.d proe3de affenaive and defensive a~.r $nd early ~ra~xx~.s~g
faai7.ities to either the USSR axe the 1~Festern a] :~.i.ea o It also occup~.c~s a
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atra'~~.c position ~ritka respect to c+antrol t~f the Baltic aaad its entrance m
~?re~?ars Sid?n 3.3.ee acxros~ the aao.~t fea~i~al+~ ~~rvutes bet~~er~ t
i~a$R end ttte ~aluat~~.e air astd naval ba$e s:ftas along the P1?r~e$ian caasto
Fisae].I.yy Aden cz~erhan~e tha P~arth G~rmari pl~I.n~ the chief mi3.it~azy ro~t~
ac~roas ?~+~s~C~x~n Eu~ro,~e* a~rtd ~.f h~tld secur~3,~r ~~r t~c~ 1~A~o pesv~ras crauld
~Se ~ecl s~ a Haase frcan which to threaten ~oui.et limes of co~~ics.tic~a~
acr?ss G9 as '~11 as the ~s~iet Br~].tic f1ax~ ~,
2 ? ~olitica~.n~o~.i~ and Sa~.Eattific m Baaeden is a stata~,~r~ pea].~.ti~
tally ~t~~ de~nocracsy of ai~~sa~t se~t~z ~.1.lion peeapl,e, its present ~oci~.
~ocr~,tic ~i~rar3.a~ coalition ~o~-exx?ri~~n2 on,~oys ~o~.id pap~.ar a~uppart~
Aden has aatil.y a s~~J Cos~tdnist party8 na.~a~arin,C saa et~t~.mat~ 35~c~,~
~rI?~ich I~ac~ ~~^en declir~.n~ in ~trehm
3 ~ As oars off' they z~.ost h,~.~h'Ly izad~.etriali~ed nations in the ~orld~
Aden is an ~p?rtant ps?oducer af' ships, ba31 aa~ rollea? b?arwsa~;~, ind~s~
trial rch3.a~ei`Ys ~x~~i.nes arsd tur'hi~ze~9 electrical apparatue~ stee~l~ a~as.-~
~aexats~, a~~r~ ret~e~?ous other nfacttta~es~ as ~ as high gtaality 1.~o~t ores
? j~ ...
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T'hs e~dish Haforo f3.rm designs and prociucss e~asllent naval and anti.-
aircraft grams. a~eden's aircraft 3.nc~us~,~^y is aapabls of producing limited
ntrmbc~rs of modern het f3..ghters. Its rnari~~e eng3.ne?xd.ng and aeronautical
installations are capable of extensiv? research and deve~.opment ~srorke
~v~den's basis scientif~.c and teohnological r~eearch ie e~ce~llent in a
n~nb+sr of fields a Its scientists rank v~th the world's best in f ~rrozts
nastallurg~ and mec~icin?~ far e~mple~ as~l it expects to have an uender~round
atomic p31s operat~.ng in 1953 m
dome 9Z ~3~ of 5~dish trade is ~eaith the T~'est ~ the iJg and Vest
dew being Sid?n?s large~at cust~er?a p ~den~ s ~.args eaeport$ Qf $ron
ores 3.umber, pulp ate, pao+er~ bsaxdn~rs~ arachines~ and ships, etc., mare an
itt~portant contribittian to ~este~ European eaona?~.i.c strengths ~'om spl+sS
a3~ut 11~ of the a vrorld q s iron i~+ der~.sred t~o~ Sdish o~?e 8 The hest
4erman and ~ steel inc3ustxiee~ aa~ paic~~1~1.~r dependant open S~dish ox~
ir~porta~s ~hiah account for perhaps 64~ of hest f~rman and 34~ of tJ~ stes3
produ~rtioaz~
~5-
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5~ Al.thozagki trade w~.th tF~ sov~.et H].oa is of more importance to
S~den than to most othaar ~@'est?rn European countries, it accounts for only
7~8~ of total. S~disl~ trades Tt consists chiefly oi' an eatcha~ag? ?f iron
ore, ball and roller bearings, and machinery for coal and sc~a mineral
ores. 'This trade has been decliar~.nv steadily over recent years, at~i urnter
Western pressure S~ealen has adopted fast-~R'est trade contrals oomparab~.~ to
thtxs? of the ~ux'opean Nt~'~'0 coun~tr3,es. Tt sells n? munitions to the Soviet
~'lloc and only surreaaciers strategio goods, such as iron ors and ba3.3~ear~.ngs,
~hsre necessary to obtain snob essential imports as Polish coal,
ba ~I+ver, S~eda~ngs depWndenr~e on foreign sources for t~eo-.third~a
of its rats ~aaterials and practioally all of its coal., coke, amt petrol~awn
products r?xu~ers its ~sconamy critioa'i3~r vta].nerab].s to e~fmrnal pr?ssuree
.~~ mayor ~.aaterfex?ence ~i.th the f1o~ of imports sucks as would occur in war^
tinge mould inevitably have serious disruptive effa~cts vn the Sv~dish econaa~o
?o Armed ~`orees, S~reden is modernizing anz . a~~anding i.ts 7s, Oof3 na~tn
armed forcese These forces are the largest. and best in Scandinavia, a'Lthough
far lass than Sueden~s resources care support, chile the forthcoming defence
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budget ~r1.1]. probably be more than la0~ above that of the present fiscal year,
Sweden voi11 sti.].1 be spending only 5~ of Sts nations]. income for, defensee
It i8 building modern het t~3roreft (and buy~.ng ethers from the UK}' enlarg?
ing and maciernising its fleet as~d expanding ground force trainingo Hov~rer~
the armed. forcea~ suffer from serious e~ealsrzesses whioh would sharply limit
thatr capabilities in time of v~aro quality of S~dish manpaFVer and
basic training is excellent, but the armed forces are laa~.ng in combat
experienoe and in staff and command tra~.ning for large scale op&rat3.ons,
Serious log3.stia deficiencies also existo
8o Sweden's armor of 50000 oompriaea oaLi,y 15,00(? regularsq a'~.thou~h
mobili~able army manpower totals some 675,000 men9 most of them semi-trained,.
The 910 ffionth conscription period is inadequate b,~ 1~.T0 standards, D~ax~y
it~ns of modern equipaaent~ sash as tanks9 heavy artillery and electronic
equipment are obsolete, in short supply, or completely leaking,
9 e Sa~aden ~ s naey is a -erell-rounded ca~bat force des~.gned far coastal
defense, It is note~eorthy for high standards of seat~anship9 materiel9
maintenance and discipline, but its effectiveness against attack by a ma~ar
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pcvarer .like the iTS~R, would be strictly limited to har~tasing axrc~ del.ay9.ng
't~y~tios acrd escort operations. The main units are three oruisera,
twely? destroyersg arad twenty-one su~arinea a The nav~r is weak ita modern
equipment,, though a Wane oonstrwctiorr and modes~rizatian progreun is ~.n pragr?s+ee
$y the endof 1952, far e~tple, all submariners will be i'itted writh radar,
aonar, a~ snorkela~
lo, The Air Fcarae, second ~strcrrgeat in ~'aatern Europe, is aonaidered
by a~reden to be its ~Erat Line of deferrae a It has 1,688 airara~'t ~lgo9'S
of thesat ixr operational uni.ta}, vg .ch .366 sa?ee fiesta. Ot' Sweden~s b2
airf~.elda, six oan nc~r sustain let fighter or medium bomber operations,
four mares cyan sustain dot f'l.ghters and be de~relopesd for bombsra9 anci a
further t+en can stapport 3.imited het fightem c+pexat~.ona, enga a~.r
desfexuseaa have been greatly impragred 25X6
but the air formes ?quip~tent.~.s inferior to that of the
CTS~R.~ arrd it suffers -from +~ritiaal logistic def~? cie~cieB, paxtiau].arly i`uel e
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3.3.p ~n the ~.i~ht off' their ~3.].3tary ~'eakrteas~ea~ the 5~redish force?
are presently capable oaa3ly cad' f~.ghtir~ delayirt~ actions ~ a~,ainst a mayor
Sovd.et attaok, The duration of the3x d+~~'ens3.ve effort ~aulsi dep8xad upon
whether their had s~sffi'ic3ent ti~ae to mob~.3~.s~e and upontths receipt off'
substantial outside suppcart o on the othes~ hand, 3~dQn ? a already sip?ab~.?
mflitar3r potential and resources provirie the base for a marked expans3.on
in Swhdish militax~r capab3.lit3.ea' perhaps to the point ~ehere, together ~.th
the NA1"o Northern ~or~.~ad fc+rcea$ the~- cou'Id succeasi'ully de~'and la~r~
areas cwf Scandinavian Such a b4aild-up oi~ S`e~od~.sh def~anraes~ hcawesrer4 would
require outside asa~.etan+~a
l2 s Sweden va role in Saand~.a~avian dEef~rtse o Th? ultimate teat of
Peden?s atratec i~portanraa~ to the USSR ar~i the ~.A.TC~ powers l~.es in its
,potentia3. role ixz the d~+fense of the Scand3.na~,an peax~.naula 3sa event of wary
Should mar coca?, thc~ chief ob~ectiv? off' both sides s~ou7.d probably be to
control the va~.uable a3.r and. na~ral b?~ses and radar sites a~.an~ the Nor~ian
waste ,da~,7.s vecause off' ite~ strategic loaatson and sizable armed ~'csrces~
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might well bs of critical import~e to h~ ar~~ray ~ s defense . ?~hhile Sweden ~ ~
strategic importanee to the 1~ATtf paerc~rt~ is pri~marilg dsfensive9 once these
pourers were strong enough to defend the Scandinavian peninsula (and per
baps D~arkj, Sweden Would hstve potential value as a base for offensive
air and perhaps eventua73y naval and amphibious operations against the
S~iet Baltic flank.
Il, S~DE~ 9S PR~,'S~N'3" F{}~YC3[ l~ THE ~ASTST CaIV~lGT
13 o The Swedish peop~.e and government rema3.n f'~.r~m1y attached tv, t"aae~.r
tr~.iticnxal policy of nfreedc~en fr+~n ~ni~.itary al].iaaacesttd To th+s Swedis;~
publicp which oesrshelm3ngly supports the t?ne~a~.li.snee~e 'pc>I.i..cy9 the most
persuasive argmnent in ~.t~.s beh~.f is the peace that the country bars enjoyed
for a-pproaataly 1,~0 years . Although cogn3.zant of the Sovirt threat to
Swedish security the Swedes are not convinced that ixivol~r~ent in a future
war is inev3.table and they 'kas~.ie~re they can maeiz-tain their axed forces ~at
a 3.evel that would dater aray 3.rnvasivn6 They under no d?lusia~ that that'
la
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could ~3.thatand attack va5.thout Western supports but they are eoa~'idsnt
that, regardless of their non-~emberahip 3.n ~iATt~9 the Pest?x~n paavers ~ou1d
cue to their assistance in event of ~aviet attack4
1l~. While all four non~Cosnn~unist parties support in principle the
na-a1~.3ance pali.Gyg ~ the ~.eadere of the Ta~.beral and Consex~ativ? oppos3~
Lion parties have cr3tici~ed the 3.a~p].ementation of the policy by the social
Democratic--A~rax'ian '~rxv'errn~nt as 1~3ng too ~1~3.d~ dac'trinairs' and 1$cking
in foresight o They contend that at a mininauen S~eeden should undertake
technical m3.7.3.tary cooperation with Danmark and Nora in order to facilitat+~
~:'~estern aid to 5+den in event of Marv They also profess ,great concern over
the impact of S~den ~ s official nsutra7. ity politer on V4Geste rn opinion o A
sma11. but vocal minor3.ty ~,ed by some of tha ~.b?ral party press, includ3r~
,dents largest dailyg has gon? further and attacked the neutrality po3.icyp
ar~,uing that better security ~roultl be found in aff'3.liation with NATO,
1./ ~cden g e sma~. n~. C unist party, ~hi1-e nai'. ob~octing to neutrality as such
"" profe~ases to regard ~.t as a frsucl~ alleging that ~redf.sh foreign poligi'
is actually prc~festrrn and non-neL~trs,3.
ll .~
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A at~aber of high--ranlfing S~disYi military officexas apparently share this
vieror, but it has not at this puncture gained any appreciable pub73c er
political support,
loo Despite their official "no-allianae~ pol~.cy, both the Swedish
gwerrrninent and ,people are pro~~estern and anti-Cammun3std The S~d3.sh
people have a deep seated fear and distrust of the USS#io This distrust is
based largely on historical conflicts with Tsarist Russia, rorhich rotas edenes
tradiic3 oral enemsrs but it has been stz%ngthened in the postwar period. bar the
IIuSRas aggrdssive international policy, incessant Soviet attaoks on Swedengs
grants of asyl~n to political refugees, atrod the recent disclosure of Soviet
espionage in Sroaeden a ?dish relatioxss with the ~riet Bloc9 especially ror3.th
Polands have worsened star the peat yearq
lbo S"seden4a sympathises as wall as its mayor economic interests$ are
with the ~'lestern countri:ss particularly the US and USA Respite reservations
over rtertain aspects of Am?ric~n far?ei~ policy$ thane 3.s a friendly feting
for the Att~er3.csn peaple~ ~edash policy has beome more overtly ~festern 3.n its
emphasis since tho confliert in Koreas axri particularly since aaarall ~dATA
defensive capabilities have begun to groro~,
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~I~ . PO t'~' A CHt~1X~F Zvi Std ~
l7. ~~+a ~e C~~. ne~~'tg ifi,~r pt~~~rn end aat3 ~
ou~3AC~? ~aede~r is w~.3~' ~ ~~ ~t~ ~'~aa~a~.7. ~.~axacen p~s~.~'
~ p~~~g ?~d ~.1~. f'~.r ray ~xt?~ i~ '~tx3.s c'+ct,~.e~a~
S~a~ea~ w+au3.d ~ pisar~ n~ 5~3.~~ '~, ~~
~~ mod. 'owh~r St~d~ t~C.i 't+~ ~ ~,s~u~ a~+e~a ~a
~~at~an~ w3~h ~ 5~ Sw~d~ ~ ~~ ~'~~~ ~o eke, lea'
ecc~ao~e~ catac~~ic~a~ ih,~;e ac~rv~ie~ 'i~.~ are~e to au~h ~~
~~t~~ Sc~.~ ~s?s~e~ ~ a~.r ~.'~a foie or I~9' ~91~.~~,~86
}.9. Oa the +c~i~^ Yrs.,, ~~e~ ~p -' "be~?ve ~ .~tm
~+dg~~ off` ~c, l~d~o gad x+e c~u~~re3.,ghe ~9 a d~~ ~~
~, ~ S~'~~,~ F ~e]~.ve~ ~a,a a ~a~ ~ ~ ern
~e~~ cad .~,
~E
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Z'b-~ Sw~dea, l~aa~~, ~aa~.d ~ ~e~
smru~iti~~ to ats~r h o~ T~~te~ p~e~evre in ~het~ ree~oti~;~.a~? a~
~~t a ~ee~ 3.r t~~ss .
o~ ~Yu7L ~ r~ bv~~~x ~o~ ~,rc~3l~ ~ a~a~~i~a~e r~co~~.de~a~~.o~. crf
~~~
~e~d~' a g~oS~t~, we clo s be1Le~~ ~ S~r~~ wa~,d ~~~ k1-ATQ~ ~
{A7~7~ {~:,~ ~,~.~E,1,Wliia ~ ~~~~ pid6J.f..S~.~r ~'??'-~~ ~.t.'J. Jdiii.&~iVC7t~
X29 v~"'~'.~ el',2'~13?~'~it~ ~~.'~ X"~.C~'i~.OXt ~ ~1*a~~~1' YLD$ ~ C~B'~i6E~
as ~h "by tha t~'~.c~ v~ ~ ~ sa~~L"L~'~ ~a ~ a~~s~?+.+ar~
~~' t the a Sow sr~~ ~raa~,d be@ ~ waa~ aad t't~~
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~'3.a3 wee m~e~y a apr3~bc~z~d far ~ ~ 80~~ mi~.y ~~
5taat~~a weld ~.t proba~'~7,g make c+~r~rtures ~to Wcc~t far ~ca~e fog of
m~73 ~iea. t3a th~r other h~~ if Sw~d.a-sa bel3.ev~d die ~8~1 i~t~ad~d
#,o m~!ne xto i"~her ~ F3.~7.e~d., i~ ~rraZd ~1mo~ c.3~q ~ use 9'
9~ed~.att*, t~'~ ~e is i#-s ffio-~l~~ce po7i.~y-a ~~a w+~. ~
c+s~ts,.4.xa,1y its ~ c~efe~e pxep~x~t,
1~~~er~ th? p~~essire b~.lda~ ?f ~.: e~ .~ ~.~ f ~eer'~
~`~, aid ~ i~ of Firm~+~h xefuge~rs,~ ~,rou]~3 ~anoet ~y axe
a pv~b~.a ~p.t-~t ~~~ hcaee tai 'the ASR. + e~fere ~
~ mho t3a~ ~e~eh ge~enes~t e ~.'~~ ~e ~ eons fib
Qf m3].~,~r~ e~opma~ox~ s~1,th $he ~Teet
~~.. ][~~,,,,~, t ?Q ode b+e3~~`s .~ ~s,~de~ ~d e~ill ~axefi~r
r segxt. ~ lc~ag ~ ~ooes3b3.eg p?au].er1q if ~tt~$yr ire
reet3~ ett~se~., ~~ N~ ~?c~re aa~ ~+~~ t4ae ~we~.~s a~,d
hope that tae erg ~3~t ~ bme~.e e,~ ,~c~~v~ the~tea~ ref oper~t3o~
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i5
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St~rad~ ~ ka~p 13a~es o~ ~~x~iart ~~. ~e ~'~t~
L~~ia ~' I~ w 3.a~i.?~d, 3.c3~ aa~ ].~ke~,y ~i `die tn3~~a3. e~ a~
+~ asont'1ia~ bei~r~ec~n t3~~ tit ~ 3~A~0, ~e Stae~.ea bab1~ s~I~l.
m~t.~ain ~e'~~r ate. p~tai~t.3.c~. a~.~@ki ~ die a o~ ~ a '
waaald c~~r ~bili~ amd mf. ~~ere~~ ea~s~.t ~rSth ~J~ I~e~a~a
aver ~c~nit de~'a~e m~~ 9is sae l~o~t ~~ w ~~~d.
^.~. A S~ov3.eit ~t~t~~Is cut, lQo~, ~ ~n 3.~ ~~d Seas, lid
r?~gv~e tie g~seae~~ ~~c+ de~3r~e ~ ~e~'the~ ~~ f~.g~t or ~+ ~e~ beer
- ~ - ~~ $~' gI"E~ [aAi~ ~lQ~~a d.1~.C.~. ,~'~~ iC7~IR~8 L6Gl'~
bra ~~e~e~ ~. ~ ~,. we bed #'~i~ ~ .~. ~i ~t ~
N.~r ~~~~ t ester off' ~reda~a ~o ate ?, BY' ~ b3-"
~: ~ ~.~~~ ~~ c~a ~ end mete e~c~ale
~ae~e~ea I~'g ~ats~ at?~? ego ear b~,f~vr~ ~ a~~e$; b
b~~ bta~Lt ~cl ~ g~e~t~ ~iext be~.e~'~ `.~ ~ edete
Wee~es~ ~~, ~. sit bps ~~~ $ St~- e~ea~.e ~+ at~l. Q
S~~
Approved For Release 2000/09/11 :CIA-RDP79R01012A001500020018-3
 Approved For Rel~,se 2000/09/11 :CIA-RDP79R0'~2A001500020018-3
S~CR~~
~3. If Sw?d~a ~.~~ ~r ~~~~~ by tie IISS~t, w~ 'b ~ ~.t
taav]~d rr~3.a~ w3tYt s3,. ~$s rua~s~. 13.i+~ onion ~ 3~c~.~ed
-~ta~ 7 ~~' '~t~ Sr:~i peo~7to de:sa~ r~3~t So~.~~ atk,
~33e o~ '7~ f'~ no~.r~ist~a~e. I~ Stao~7oxa wex?e id~2 a~,d cx~ci.ed.~
~~.t~ ~~ ~ St.'~~ t'ost?ees a~xl f1.~~ '~ ~,~S~.~d r~., aid f,~~
~~ 'G~ s#i d~"d F3'~'i'~i~l$,?~ ~ X12[3 '~~~ ~r e
IQa TF~ ~ Il~v tlCf~ A ~. 'i':i~'E. ISH G 0~ 1~ ,Q,,,~,
??li> 5tr.;3h ~c~ae~~ to l~d#.?1?0 e C W, '13~e 1i~s ~
~~ of St~ed.~ ~ a ~~1.~ atoms ~t~xt~3.~. ?~ ~iAi`o c~pek+~li.~
boa the d~~ o~ ~c:~.,n~~. _ _.
~~~,~
Approved For Release 2000i'}: CIA-RDP79R01012A001500020018-3
 Approved For Re .ease 2000/09/11 :CIA-RDP79R0'1~2A001500020018-3
~e 1.t t~v~a~ tr~ve~.I. s to ~ ~ ~,tc~~x~ to ~rifi,~. ~ . ~o~.ot
a.~e~a1.t or to e ~ on~sa~x~.t ~ aoo fox '~? R to x~..
~:
-~ ~t~oi3,#.~ r~dh~a+~naoo tea Y3A~(i wow 3n.~~ in~e.~3,
tear~iono,,~ it ~~ es~ain3p t~a~ not be gold m~ a
'P~ tPaa R.. A~ev~, ~t ~ l t~ao USSR ~o oocr ~'~tand os ~t ~
to aro ~~tr ca~seo 'fie Fines. _~
25X1 C
-- 3.8 .-
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 ' Approved For Rel,~se 2000/09/11 :CIA-RDP79R0'~2A001500020018-3
S~CI~'T
27. ~ 5 t e C ~ C~
5'wedi.ah ~ac~tral~,~ ma~ea d~.cnlt th? cte3egst ~f effecti~re S~
def`~sma. at des ~a9~nt p~3a~n3ng aid cos~x~d3r~at~~ diff~.a~.t i.fl n~ 3,~a?-
aib~:e: d~.ea ~e~~ f'~1.Z. aac~a to 1aATD at ar].~.oe ~. esa~.ata~c?}
a~ ha~pera 1C~'T9D ef~ox~a tss a Steen ~ sts~st~ 3.te v~ defmaa~.
Ors the c>tt~.er d i3d~ars cx~at~w~. txd~iere to ~ ~a~1l3ae~ p~~r bay
~9m tagea to #~e Neat. ~crv~st p?licy t F'~f.d probe~~
aam-t ~at:aed bar a dea~.xe ns>t to e.1l.+m~a~e S'~den, Maae~~ ~we~e~~a
Eaet-&Teat tx~de eumts~~ ~ ~:el t?~oae of ttae ~A~YD ca~tr~.eei
~d aye ~ tv ~ac~t~tnue ~ da ao:
~~. ~~~-.ah ~~~,': `~ ~? ~t~ s3ca~equ~eea mf Swe~~mt'a
meutrelity ~~ t3me ~ ~ +~etcoa~i. tc~ti the l~.t?:r atr~~ of
the ~~! exa and the s~ent"Ft w3~ea~a of the 't tc~ ewe a
S~ ra~~3gn. Shoff w~a? oc~e ~u;~ ttae pe~i~d. of I~RiD t+~ea'1QZeag
be~"ore Y~o.y 3u p~~t~s:~ilkasr be a,d.tc defls~~ the IIWSR ~r~eu'E~1
pr~bRb3,y byg~aa S~ed~ a~ bunch ~ ~+ of I~ar,tr ~~~ tv,,~~
lq
Approved For Release 2000/x: CIA-RDP79R01012A001500020018-3
 Approved For R Lease 200~/~09~/~11:CIA-RDP79RQ~12A001500020018-3
nk, ~ c~ l~xa $1.~* R c~a~ (~) ava3~ t~sa
n~ess~i~ o~ a~.,r~~iiag 3xa:~e f't?sc~as code ~~ Sw~di ~~-rc~~; t'S3
aea~ die fo ~ ~.~ iad~~i. ~~~t as ~ r~sw~.~ c-~ ~
f9.gh~3a~ ~d of ~ S~.eh "~rsorohed ems" ; ~d {c} avt+3~
nec~aity of ac~g ~wed~ +. of cap3~ag w~.'~h p~ba~le ~xe~~r3.'L7~ t'.
Nls~rec~er, cu~ce +~ IISSFs mod. vcatapiex~ Nv~s~.~ ~ac1 rYsg ~rede~ ~ro~d 'be
a~no~ ta~'t.~r isca~~~d. ~ i'~e ce~b~.~ '~ ~T~sf~ra L'uro~se r~uld
be oui~ aE'P. ~v Qrffi i~oug~ i c'irl ~s~ ~a~~'a eae~ ~
t~s~t ~'c~~ce Swr?de~a ~ ~~-ori~.~ i~ ~ t+~ ~d the ~ci~t.~ 'b a~sd ~a
ctm~~9'.e $o ~,bi~ So~.o'~ ter
2'9, ois a o~he~ ~ ~3.~lfx ~~1i~~s it" xec+r~~d. '~ tho ~3:~R.,
Aso ~e o~ ~3u~ ~ A17~i. ~b,.e R wed bsa d~~3.v~d of +~ most
e~.re~ ~v~s a~' at+~k ~"`m ~+~ moo: i'~ #~c3. ~ o~c~?~~;
~b~~', of i~~ ~~at d~.~~a't a o~ a~~e ~~ ids Nc~gi~n ~~~;
it w~
25X6
gso'~3~t' ~. rye i~,o ~3.0~ ~. ~d RT~n ~~ . ~.'~ ~
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Approved For Release 2000/09/'A-RDP79R01012A001500020018-3
 Approved For Re ese 2~~Q~/11:CIA-RDP79R0'~2A001500020D18-3
p~ba'S~ bec~ae a base Day resisteace acti~tiec i~ these t~ot~triea ~ ~
F3~len~3.. Once the O msd i~tc~~ted ~wec~o>* b~i~'er# it ~ paw~'6~bly
p1a~e iscre~s$~ pa~smre o~: the 3wed~h gavext t~ Fait these actie~.ties,
a~td Swedes wcauld be eaa~p~.~l. ~ 03~- at least ~,t?t3~y.
3d. .Despite :Ltc ae~'~'v S~~~n vrot~d p~c~ubbsably ~ aetive],~ resist
tae cr~er~t ~~ W a~:rcca, +~.tha it ~ o~#i~~ Wit.
Partic~lar1~* if these ~rex~3.3~hts~ ~texe at hi~lh. altitu~de-i the Suedes m4,ght a
~o t3r~cat.~;h ~e ~a$3:rm off' ~teraept3c,~a axed AA ~ire~ ~.d the s~~ ~'c??
~Te~texn a~~orce m~ aat~.l~y assist 7:ast c~ d~.ed Weste~a .
Breeden ~ ~caa~ acti~re~,q def~ud its ae~n3it~r a~ Sc~r3.et oro~e~hts ~
alt~aaagh not the pcaAst ~` areati~ se~.~ ~tio~ ?~ag a USA..
141"~er Shen had base iev?~ted tbm'ta~h S~t~iet cgct3~ o~ ~doa^m homer,
the aeut t ~'es1 ~-ed ~ Sov~.et p~asce '~~ protest ~ax~e ~'~
anti fi~ke amore act~.ve ~sa~urea a~i~t Wester cgv~~sr~ts, ~cran ~ tt~.s t?sse'
tae S~rec73.sh aix force wau~.~t 'be ,fie to rxy~ cn~t 3n pxmictice thv mare
~Semt ms?~sta~ce~s offered ~ t'~ erg itse~,
,~ 27. ~.
~~
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 Approved For Ruse 2000~t?~fi :CIA-RDP79R0'~2A001500020018-3
31, Dace ~liTO ~ ~ ~ ~e~~ to amble w~st~a.
to be h$Id r3s~d ~~' ~ pae~ to he ?ucl,`~$3.g de~e~ed, the ' fight
mot ~ able to c13.~ert s~~ic~~t fc~x?cee fog ~ e~$g 5c~d~n~v~.an ,
aid Sw~~t ~?~.d ao l~a? ~ w~a3` i~cy~t~d 'fir tt'~iie III` R. 8~t~ea would
~~ be leis vu3ner~~.? to Sarv~Let econa~.c pree~uree et2d aauld at~,].1. ce~ac~uet
]I.~m~.ted trade w3.th axe W~s~e t#~de~ theca ci~n~es, hc~re~+er,~ `ate tiSSR
-'a~l gx+o~bly te~4.st~. h~xta~lfty as a-tageos as it wow
~ox?eexa the Sc,et ~alti~a ~ a ~'ad p~~, a t'~Q Y+~TO ens ~'x~am maw
ca~~e~3.va ~ ~ 5'~ter~3.ah "~,
? ~ eat Zf : ~ decslarec~ wm~r e~ ~
arc.fi ~' ~ Sr,et ~ttaclz r~tu ~~3r: +o~ ~.f ~wed.~ca were iteel~' ~t~e~1, the
~S~ ~ '6e ~ ed tc tant~a~r guar Sox~c9e~- ~. ~,
~ ~e~ee ~a~s~.liti~ ~~~ a~.c~h~y ~nased. ~~ae~
~r tie ~.~ ca~?a w~ be tt~ ~.b~.~ tcs ~~ ~aabr~.t3~1 arm s in
S "~ i hca~r~er, ~ tle~s~d ~ s ~~) the e'~r~th o~ the INTO a~
~~ed~.~h ~e at a t3xae tasr csc~~ ~ `fie time the to mcbe;
~e~ the ca~,xtr~~c~e ~a~~,et?:~xicti nth ~~~ ~ de?
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 Approved For Ruse 2000/09/11 :CIA-RDP79RO~,Q312A001500020018-3
~~
CONFIDENTIAL'
g3, D+~x:4x~g Zq~o at le?~'~, ~~ assm~ ur~.ls twat -the Sue~l.~ and
~~ foa?a~s w~an~.d 'Se ?abb].a to c~ ~'' ~~ ~~t a prold d~~g aQt3.t~ts
?~.~. 3so3,ated a of 1Q'' ~ 'R~ h~.d. Z~ogt~3.aa1 aut3: r p~'~-
l~ wvu~,d smoke dLft?1~,t sde~tats smd ~r IqA~! a~as~.s'~ce ~ ~e Swedial~
ferc?~. Hv?semar! Swat c'la:#ng aa~iaari mi~ltt gain va~,vla a fog INTO
r$oxsc~e~ ~+~' Nerea~, aid a a~r+et~.s~a fames .c.~ coved retr~t
Ncr~s~q ~ be ab~.e aaa3.at in. i~ d~'~ae. ~~.?eaver$ t if St~den wt~se
o~, the c+
it 8e~strtact~an ~' ~se?di f~ea~ ta?anaperrt ~.3.nea,,
~., ac well as ~t3~ gta+er~2'~ tie ~ ses~ rs+c3uae Str~tet
a:~t~ uti]3~e ~iwed3.a~s faEait3~ a~ rea~aa~ after Swed~aa . b~-
cacc.ed.
3~.. ??n ~e otlissc ~ndd if gearere3. ~zr d9~d not t~ctar ~+~~ ae~e~s3. ~reera~
~we~i~x defe~e e~g333~3.aa ~~at ~?~ de~3.v Asa -the paint a?e tae
gdd3.t-3.~en of ed+~t ? ~ fcn?cee ~ fi.Jas~e c'~f IQATO ? p~.~3y if t~eee foa~ea
mere g3.~~ t3ttae il~~e, a~3.g~it ~.e ,~ ts~:cesaful. defer of barge arm
of Sw~ede.~a or a$ ~. ~r~ ~$ Scav~.et alt t~ d:
ISA~ec'R~.ah ft~eea bc? a'b3.e bar tea Mme to h ]ergs ase~ cif
Approved For Release 2000/0~~1~ C{R01012A001500020018-3
T I'A.L
~~--:~~0---
 Approved For Ruse 2.0.1,: CIA-RDP79R0~1r012A001500020018-3
~L30N~'IDENTIAL,
'bases ~r~ct3:d be a~.i~'b~e ~o~ ~ a~ parha.~ av`~~.. ~+av~. tend. e~n~3.~uz~
apeac.ams ~~ ~a~ ~s~et ~x~.t~e ~. T~t~ 1er~3~ioa3 ~.a~zt~ies o~
s~pl~-ira~ ~iATO ft~ ~ text 3xl ~~ i'aco t~~ ~-'~ba.e Stzvie~ lqt~.
s~er~.a~3.`~y 3n the Be1.~:ie ~a~d. dt3ese 3t NATO u8e oS 'basso in ST~+edasn
itself$ "but ~s va~.~aab].e No~aeg~n cu~'b~3 s~ ~u1~ be paco~e~t~d
St~tS.e'~ egres3 f~c~a ~e B~.tia z~de mama l~a~urda~aso
---fie
Approved For Release 2000~~1vFTDE~~~A~'DP79R01012A001500020018-3