TERMS OF REFERENCE, NIE-64 (PART I): SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES, THROUGH MID-1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002100010006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 20, 2005
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 1, 1952
• Content Type: NIE

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
1 April, 1952
SUBJECT: TIR:SS OF RE TflLPICE: NI .64 (Part I) : SOVIET BLOC
CAPABILITII,S, nMOOUCII LSID-1953
To estimate Soviet Bloc capabilities for political and
military warfare n
QUESTION BEARI ON THE PP BI
I, MER L POLITICAL FACTORS .?ECTIIIG SOVIET BLOC CAP01LITIL
This section seeks to determine the stability of the Soviet
regime in the ILSR,9 the. extent and strength of Soviet control over
the European Satellites, the relationship between the US5R and
Communist China, the stability of the Chiriece Commnunist regime,
the factors which might produce change in ax7 of these situations,
and above all, the effect which these political factors may have
upon Bloc capabilities for political and military warfare 0
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A, ti? at is the relationship now existing in the t MR be-
tween the Comm ist Parrty9 the Secret Police, and the
military forces? Are there any strains within any of
these groups or between the groups?
B. How successful has the,Soviet regime been in winning
active support for, and in eliminating effective
opposition to, its dcenestic and foreign policies?
C. Which political or solical problems within the LUSR
might develop in such a way either- to weaken or to
strengthen Bloc capabilities for political and mili-
tary warfare!
D. What is the extent of the Yremlint s control over the
European Satellites and how is it exercised? To what
extent does Soviet control depend upon Soviet police
and military force, upon Satellite police and military
force? How successful has the Kre lin been in winning
active support in the Satellites for its policies?, In
ellminatirg effective opposition to those policies?
E. What is the extent of Ereli.n influence or control over
Communist China and how is it exercised?
P. Which political or social probl? s within the Satellites
or within Co n iuuist China might develop in such a y~ as
either to weaken or to strengthen Bloc capabilities
for political and military owfare.
2
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G ,What 11 be the probable effect, upon thf-, political
situation within the Moe of the contiraxation of the
cold v and of the presert cons::l..icts in 1.o:rea and
Indochina, of tons ion of the ~4,.m.t in the Far Last,
of :tirxited attacks in the Midti..e -Dust, of general war
,iar=thout the use of mars destruction. Tmapons of general
sear with the use of mss dez;truction weapons? 'In IT,, each of these insta.ncea ? hove will the resultant
poleitical_ developments wit yin the Bloc affect .floc
capabilities for political and military warfare?
EOO C ?ACTOR} AF?iX; ` & SOVIET Crsl' BILITII F.tR POUTIC,A.L
The ED) stud of Soviet economic capabilities should re-
6,01W most of the issues important hare, and the task m . be
J d.m:a_ted largely to checking data and ascertaining the impact o?
the, economic factor: s upon Bloc capabilities for both political
and rAllitary t fare, COxr principal intere. is here are in the
follow 3
A. Cuxrent viaction of the key m..atcrials 1 oducts,,)
a weapons Current resource allocation of national Income,,
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%W TOP SECRET
C. Bloc ability to unease production of military
item,
D. Sloe ability to expand industrial and agricultural
production.
E. Operational stocks and stockpiles of critical mate.
riale, equipment, and weapons.
, Pattern of tradeas it affects the'Bloc sconce and
military pog 4ential.
0. Contribution to Bloc strength We by economies of
the Satellites and of Communist China. Ability of
Bloc to integrate its economies.
H. Status and probable effect of Soviet dispersal of
industry grogram.
1. Significance of foreign capital equipment, tech-
nieal kaasrledge, and materials for mnintainiiAg and
developing the ourrozA Bloc program.
Jo Ability of the Bloc economy to produce new weapons
developed by Moo sc ientisets, while at same time
performing other critical functions.
Ro Indications that the long-term Innatment
designed to increase the productive capacity of
the USSR, the Satellites, and C nm mist China has
been, or will be, eerious3y altered to achieve
greater ite war-readiness.
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L. In the various situation listed in I' 0, (page 3)3
1. Which economic factors represent major points
of vulnerability?
2 0 What will be the ability of the Bloc economy to
support increased effort for political and mili-
tary warfare?
III. SO VIM BLOC CAPABILITIES FOR POLITICAL WARFARE
Soviet Bloc political warfare techniques include political
and economic pressure,, d.ipltmnatic action in the UN and elsewhere,
propaganda and front activities,, the actions of Conmu ist Parties
and Co imist Party-controlled trade up-ions outside the R oc9
support of various kinds of revolutionary movements,, and psycho-
logical warfare0
A 0 What has been the impact of the ecpansion of Soviet
power since World `fa-- II upon the international Cc
monist movement?
B. To that degree does Soviet Bloc military power con-
tribute to the effectiveness of the Bloc's political
warfare?
C. To what extent has the emergence of Cnunist China
affected Moo political warfare?
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19W W
V MIAIL-' are the Cornn .::t cantibLliti c,:i or ;ol.itical
var.onre,, area by area ~iderterr.,
a ;:~ ev'3ti awe tie
org, i.zation of the pr:ir.ctipa=l goverrmonts in the
. rea.:N
What e the political one ntationr o the nrin -
i.,pa3_ none- cmmunfl;t opposition groups?
3 , `1 aat is the strength and irfiw nce of each of
the cc mjx; ist Parties?
Does the economic :::i.tuat.ion offe:r^ ooj)ortuni.ttes
for Bloc econam:i.c ?res. e and othcr forms of:'
_ticai warfare?
-~ Brat is the susce-)tihi.3..i.ty of the pe le of earh
i po tar t cctm# to Go uniPt crop. anda ., ? to
~conor'ic anci I L.t:s~ p r;smu e, ay Lto other po--
'icrfh.We technigtues?
? r. dust Is the attitude of the people tow rd m: rn.a.-
, r9.1; o sa cf the a: a.t..,1 est utrpacgle?
'hat IS the ra r- 01 r ut3 o , frie 1toc pol.itic