MR. MONTAGUE'S COMMENTS ON DRAFT FOR NIE-66

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002300010014-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 19, 2012
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: May 14, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

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418,1,
a MY Unrg1104 1952
MFMCMANDIDI FOR THE RECMID
tAL
EJECT: Mr. lifori -n on 4raft for DIE-66
. agree with mu whatig said in Section I eral." It
be noted ?however that most of the difficulties 4ioesed ease from a
difference in ncet as to the nature of an N1E. indoctrination on
NiEts has fs but the. following constitutes the con-
cepts gave ect draft:
a. A national eetnite shonid tell the tat of the situation
and -el.plort possible developments that might affect the DS. In
other words, it should not be the ease history, but the diagnosis
of the disease and the 'propposis of possible effects. The majority
of its readers are probably in two groups: those Who kneel the bast
groimd and those Who donst need or care to know it. Therefore, the
briefest possible statement of the nature of the mandy end ito.
effects is tevairca. The ,specialists can discuss on the basis of
the interpretation of the cast history Whether the di gnosis in cor-
rect end whether or not the disease is far advanced..
bi A brief treatments to that given GnatEDnIa, appears ideal
to me. The situation in Guatemala is nearly as complicated as that
in Argentina and is less well known both to specialist and general
reader. Yet a brief treatment allowed an asseSiment of the situation
and Iserved all purposes that appear possible in att N/E. It sit!--
be reserved to an NIS study or other lengthy papers to detail and
interpret basic sociological, political, and economie factors that
determine a current situation.
This was good on its summary of historic background and
n the present economic and labor situation. I feels however, that
did not and could not in 41 pages adequately "elan" the situation.
There are other factors that would have to be taken into account in such
a socio4ittorle study. Moreover, I an not in agreement with the selection
of fetters in relation to the "Probable Future Developments" that are
given in the last pages of the paper. Manifestly, it is the job of the
estimator to select the conclusions that he believes in and there will
always be a disparity if he dots not go bank and write the parts of the
historic background that point to the conclusions iseletted. That is the
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CONFIDENTIAL
difficulty in the aterneteMethod suggested inift. Montague's Section L.
Unless one accepts all the conclusions of a paper like State's, 'he would
have to go tack and write all the background in the same scale in order
to "justify such conclusions. It would appear to be more helpful to
set up a brief statement and then discuss with the agencies the qualitative
shading that might be accepted within the same focus.
I will mention on3y one divergence with State. State discounts
almost entirely in its conclusions the possibility of increased Communist
influence within the COT or the government, during Peron 's incuMbency or
thereafter. Inasmuch as this is the chief danger to US interests, I have
stressoi it more. It also appears tome that even the hiatorical back-
ground given by State indicates that the proletariat and not the Army war
well be the rising force of the future in Argentimu. Certainly it is the
one that adds something new to the traditional Latin-American picture and
requires special attention.
3. Sections III, XV, and V of the subject eamm
and applicable within the limits established by thetas
in paragraph one.
cc- Dr. Kent
Mr. Montague_
Mr. Bundy
all useful
cepts mentioned
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