NIE-83: CONDITIONS AND TRENDS IN TROPICAL AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002700040018-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 12, 2012
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: February 19, 1953
• Content Type: MEMO

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SECURITY INFORMATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
19 February 1953
MEMORANDUM FOR: Allan Evans (Ola)
Colonel Gerald F. Lillard, USA (G.,2)
Captain Allan L. Reed, TEN (ON/)
ColOnel &sic E. Thomas, USAF (AFOW-2B)
Captain john A. Holbrook, USN (JIG)
SUBJECT ElE43: Conditions and Trends in Tropical
Africa
1. The attached terms of reference, indicating the allo-
cations of production responsibility, were agreed on at the
meeting of the IAC representatives on 18 February,
2. It is requested that contributions be received in
this office by the close of business on Friday, 31 Jay.
Distribution nBft
Executive Secretary
25X1
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SECURITY INFORMATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
19 February 1953
SUBJECT: Tram OF REFFRENCE: QIE-83: CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
IN TROPICAL AFRICA/
THE PROBLEM
To assess the strategic importance of Tropical Africa; to
identify The major forces and trends in the area; and to estimate
probable developments there and the strategic consequences of
these developeentsS
QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
o?fi I. INTRODUCTION
and
Si'=irvices
What are the essential characteristics of Tropical Africa's
global position and internal situation? (Last great colonial
if Ais estimate deals vii ail the African territories between
- the Sahara desert and the Union of South Africa, excepting the
Einglo-Egyptige3Sudan. A list of these territories, with their
status and desired statistics, is at Annex A.
3/ We believe that this estimate should be open-mended and should
emphasize the long term.
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area; under-developed, raw materials-producing economies;
population distribution and general condition; impact of
Western culture; disparate policies of colonial powers;
communications; etc.)
OIR 11. THE S1RATDDIC IMPORTANCE OF TROPICAL AFRICA
A. Economic
1. What Tropical African strategic materials are
available or potentially available to the West in
significant auantities? From which territories?
How essential are they in terms of the total
supply available to the US and the West? Briefly,
what plans or programs for further development are
underway?
2. What economic contributions do the United Kingdom,
France, Belgium, and Portugal receive from their
African territories? that effect would the dies-
ruption of trade with, and/or contra over, the
colonies have on the economies of these powers?
Services B. Military
1. In event of gimwmal war during the 19501s to what
extent mould present and potential military bases
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and facilities in Tropical Africa be important and be
available to the West? In which of the territories?
2. To What extent could the territories provide troops
for use overseas particularly if military equipment
is provided by, the West? For internal security missions?
C. Political
10 Haw do political problems and developments in Tropical
Africa affect its strategic importance? What is the
strategic importance of these areas to the motropoles?
OIR III. OVER-ALL PROBLEMS OF TROPICAL AFRICA, AND PROBABLF, MUM
DEVELOPMENTS
A0 Social, economic, and political problems. What are the
key social, economic, and political problems of Tropical
Africa, aside from racial relations? For example, what
-17-ir'the impact of industrialization? To what extent is
there over-population in various areas? Antiquated
farming practices? What is the impact of evolutionary
political development and the growth or lack of educational
facilities? What is the prospect for solutions to these
problems?
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B. Inter-racial relations
1. What is the extent and nature of racial animosity in
Tropical Africa? To what degree does it have an eco-
nomic basis? A social basis? A nationalistic, anti-
colonialist basis? To what degree have developments
in North and South Africa or elsewhere exacerbated
racial feeling?
2. What is the probability of intensified racial animosity,
agitation, and violence in Tropical Africa in the short
and long term? What is the long range trend? abet are
the likeliest danger areas, and when is serious trouble
likely to erupt? Is the governing authority in any of
the dependent territories likely to be overthrown by
force in the foreseeable future? Will future develop-
merits in North and South Africa (as estimated in NIE-69
and NIE42) or elsewhere have a significant impact on
situations in Tropical Africa? What is the likely
affect of developments in one part of the area or other
parts; e.g., repercussions of the Ilan Niau uprising?
What is the probability of establishment of an accept-
able modus vivendi in those territories inhabited by
more than one race?
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C. EUropean colonial policy. What is the probable evolution
of European colonial policies? To what extent do the
several colonial powers anticipate having to relinquish
authority in their possessions? dhat is their view of
the future of their colonies? What are the views of the
white settlers, and what rale do they play?
11.1122..apalLima..em. What is the present size of the Asian
population? dhat political, economic, and cultural role
does itplay? dhat is the current and prospective rate of
immigration? What is the likely development of Indian
policy toward the area? To what extent d, es the Indian
problem constitute a long range threat to Western interests
in the area?
E. Communimn
1. dhat is the extent and nature of Communist penetration
in Tropical Africa? In which territories does it have
a foothold, or play a significant part? What is Soviet
policy toward the African territories, and how is that
policy implemented? Is there any evidence that Commu-
nist activities are directed at denial of strategic
materials to the West? Are the governing authorities
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in the territories aware of the Communist danger,
and are they actively attempting to inhibit the
spread of Communism? With what effect? Are they
in liaison on this question?
2. What are the prospects for increased Communist influence
In Tropical Africa? What obstacles bar the spread of
Communism? What conditions favor its spread? Which
are the most and which are the least vulnerable
territories? Are Communists, or Cormunist sympathizers
like.ly to become an important political elements either
overtly or covertly in any Tropical African territory
in the foreseeable future?
OIR IV,' IMPORTANT REGIONAL PROBLEMS AND PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS
A. British West JrcaQ Discuss briefly the UKos gradual
relinquishment of authority in Nigeria and the Gold Coast5)
and its effect ten regional stability. As autonomy passes
to native governments is instability likely to grew? Are
these governments likely to remain cooperative with the Wests
or will they move toward neutralist or pro-Soviet positions?
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B. French West Africa and French Dquatorial Africa. Discuss
briefly the Bie, Togoland, and Cameroons unification issues,
and their effect on regional stability? Discuss the pro-
spects for, and likely policies of the Democratic African
Rally (RDA)) for the growth of other political groups; and
for the growth of a nationalist and separatist sentiment
hostile toward assimilation in the French Union,.
C. Liberia. Discuss briefly the prospects in Liberia.
D, Ethiopia-Eritrea and the Somalilands. Discuss briefly
the stability of the Ethiopia-Eritrea Federation. Is
the position of the royal family likely to remain secure?
What are the prospects in Somalia?
E. British East Africa? Discuss briefly the outlook for
increasing disorders in Kenya, and their spread to Uganda
and Tanganyika. What is the stimulus and strength of the
Mau Maa movement? Is the restoration of order in Kenya
likely without an increased commitment of armed forces?
F. Belgian Con,. Discuss briefly any prospective threats
to the prevailing stability in the Belgian Congo. Is there
any evidence of native reaction to events elsewhere in
Central Africa?
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Go British Central Aal2i. Discuss briefly the outlook for
federation of Northern Rhodesia, Southern Rhodesia, and
Nyasaland? If it comes into being, what are the prospects
for its effectiveness? Would failure of agreement on
federation produce seriously unstable conditions?
Ho The High Commission Territories and South-West Africa?
Discuss briefly the likelihood of Britainvs turning over
the administration of Bechuanaland, Swaziland, and
Basutoland to South Africa. Will the prospective in-
creasing racial friction in South Africa have repercussions
in these territories? Also, discuss briefly the outlook
for serious racial disorders in South-West Africa?
I. The Portuguese colonies, Discuss briefly the likelihood of
serious disorders in Angoaa and Mozambique?
Jo Madagascar? Discuss briefly the prospects in Madagascar?
V. THE STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES OF PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS
Ao Are the territories of Tropical Africa likely to be
stable sources of strategic raw materials and military
manpower over both the short and long term?
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lig Are prospective disorders in the colonial territories likely
to be such as to require increasingly large commitments of
forces and materiel by the E4ropean colonial powers?
C. Will prospective developments, including political and
economic evolution, work to the serious economic dis-
advantage of the European colonial powers?
Do Will prospective developments prejudice the West's
establishment or full use of military bases in the
strategically located territories?
E0 What is the likely effect of prospective developments in
Tropical Africa on the attitudes of other countries,
particularly the Arab-Asian countries.
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THE TERRITORIES OF TROPICAL AFRICA
"ANNEX A',
Territor1s Dependency
Population
Important Resources
* of Free
World Supp17
Native White Asian
French West Africa ( ncluding
French Togoland*) French
Fr. F4uatorial Africa
(incl., Fr Gameroons*) French
Portuguese Guinea Portuguese
Rio Muni Spanish
Liberia Independent'
Gold Coast (including
British Togoland*)
British
Nigeria (including nr.
1
Cameroons*)
British
Sierra Leone
British
1
Gambia
British
Belgian Congo (including
;
Ruanda-Urundi5")
Belgian
I
Angola
Portuguese
I
Mozambique
Portuguese
I
Northern Rhodesia
British
'
Southern Rhodesia
British
Nyasaland
British
High Gom. Territories
British
Bechuanaland
Basutoland
Swaziland
South-West Africa*
South Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea
Independent
French Somaliland
French
British Somaliland
British
Somalia*
Italian
Kenya
British
Uganda ,
Tanganyika-
British
British
Zanzibar
British
Madagascar French
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