PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN GUATEMALA

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CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8
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September 12, 2012
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1
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May 19, 1953
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 - CM -NO. S 3 Welt ASSISTANT DIRRCTOR.ONE 25x1 SECURITY INFORMATION NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE 25X1 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN GUATEMAL NI E-84 Published 19 May 1953 25X1 25X 1 The following member organizations of the Intelligence Advisory Committee participated with the Central Intelli- gence Agency in the preparation of this estimate: The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff. The Intelligence Advisory Committee concurred in this estimate on 12 May 1953. The AEC and FBI abstained, the subject being outside of their jurisdiction. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 DISSEMINATION NOTICE 1. This copy of this publication is for the information and use of the recipient designated on the front cover and of individuals under the jurisdiction of the re- cipient's office who require the information for the performance of .their official duties. Further dissemination elsewhere in the department to other offices which require the information for the performance of official duties may be authorized by the following: a. Special Assistant to the Secretary for Intelligence, for the Department of State b. Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2, for the Department of the Army c. Director of Naval Intelligence, for the Department of the Navy d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force e. Deputy Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff f. Director of Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Commission g. Assistant to the Director, FBI, for the Federal Bureau of Investigation h. Assistant Director for Collection and Dissemination, CIA, for any other Department or Agency 2. This copy may be either retained or destroyed by burning in accordance with applicable security regulations, or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by arrangement with the Office of Collection and Dissemination, CIA. WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. DISTRIBUTION: White House National Security Council ' Department of State Department of Defense Mutual Security Agency Psychological Strategy Board , Atomic Energy Commission Federal Bureau of Investigation Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN GUATEMALA THE PROBLEM To estimate the current political situation in Guatemala and probable future de- velopments. CONCLUSIONS 1. The current political situation in Gua- temala is adverse to US interests. The Guatemalan Communists exercise a polit- ical influence far out of proportion to their small numerical strength. Their influ- ence will probably continue to grow as long as President Arbenz remains in power. 2. Communist influence in Guatemala is based on militant advocacy of social re- forms and nationalistic policies identified with the Guatemalan Revolution of 1944. It is exercised through the personal in- fluence of individual Communists with the President and within the pro-Admin- istration political parties, through infil- tration of the bureaucracy, through con- trol of labor organizations, and through leadership of the agrarian reform move- ment. The Communists' present objec- tive is not open and direct control of Guatemala. Rather, they seek to neu- tralize Guatemala as an ally of the United States and to convert its Government into an effective, though indirectly controlled, instrument of Communism. 3. President Arbenz still exercises per- sonal control of the Administration and of the Army and the Police. It is still possible for him to break his ties with the Communists and to moderate the policies of his Administration, but it is highly unlikely that he will do so. 4. Implementation of the Agrarian Re- form Law of 1952 will be the principal objective of the Arbenz Administration during 1953. It is to be expected that the large Guatemalan landholders and the United Fruit Company will be vic- timized in the process. 5. The implementation of Agrarian Re- form has intensified a sense of insecurity which has had a depressing effect on business activity in Guatemala. However, its direct effect on agricultural produc- tion is likely to be negligible, at least for several years. As long as coffee prices hold up the general economy of Guate- mala will not be vitally affected. 6. The net internal political effect of the implementation of the Agrarian Reform Law will probably be to strengthen the Arbenz Administration and to increase Communist influence and capabilities. Neither the landholders nor the Fruit Company can expect any sympathy in Guatemalan public opinion. Redistribu- tion of their land will be used to mobilize the hitherto inert peasantry in support of the Administration. WON* T 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 2 ? ??? ? 7. The most effective opposition to the Arbenz Administration is found in Guate- mala City. The urban elements which constitute this opposition are strongly anti-Communist, but they are also strongly nationalistic. In general they could not be expected to make common cause with the landholders and the Fruit Company or to welcome foreign interven- tion in Guatemalan internal affairs, al- though some of them might be disposed to accept foreign assistance in overthrow- ing Arbenz. There is no likelihood that this urban opposition could alter the course of the Government by political action. It could not succeed in a revolu- tionary attempt opposed by the Army. 8. The Army is the only organized ele- ment in Guatemala capable of rapidly and decisively altering the political situa- tion. Although a quick change of atti- tude is always possible, there is no pres- ent reason to doubt the continued loyalty of the Army high command and of most of the Army to Arbenz. The Army under its present leaders could not be expected to take revolutionary action unless they became convinced that their personal security and well-being were threatened by Communist infiltration and domina- tion of the Government, or unless the policies of the Government were to re- sult in extreme social disorder and eco- nomic collapse. 9. So long as it remains united, the Guatemalan Army can defeat any force which the Governments of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua could deploy against it. These Governments are fear- ful that the trend in Guatemala will lead to Communist subversion and social up- heaval in their territories. They are probably giving serious consideration to the possibility of effecting a political change in Guatemala through clandes- tine support of revolutionary action there. It is highly unlikely, however, that they would or could mount an open military intervention in Guatemala. 10. Guatemala will probably continue to assist Communist subversive activities in the Caribbean area, but will probably avoid involvement in filibustering opera- tions like those of the Caribbean Legion in 1948-1951. To counterbalance its iso- lation in Central America it will seek political support elsewhere, particularly in the United Nations. If actually in- vaded it would seek to invoke the Rio Treaty as well as the UN Charter. 11. Guatemala has frequently taken occasion to demonstrate its independence of US leadership and in general has been less cooperative than could be desired, particularly in Hemispheric affairs. Moreover, the regime has systematically been hostile toward US private economic interests in Guatemala. Detriment to Hemisphere solidarity would not deter Guatemala from any course of action suggested by its own interests. DISCUSSION The Arbenz Administration 12. The present political situation in Guate- mala is the outgrowth of the Revolution of 1944. That Revolution was something more than a routine military coup. From it there developed a strong national movement to free Guatemala from the military dictatorship, social backwardness, and "economic colonial- 10011011310 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 .001011.111,- ism" which had been the pattern of the past. These aspirations have inspired the loyalty and conformed with the self-interest of most politically conscious Guatemalans. The Ar- benz Administration still derives some strength from its claim to leadership of the continuing national revolution. 13. In the name of the Revolution of 1944 the successive administrations of Arevalo (1945- 1951) and Arbenz have pursued increasingly radical and nationalistic policies. Their per- secution of foreign economic interests in Guatemala, especially the United Fruit Com- pany, and their demands for the "restitution" of Belize (British Honduras) have had the support or acquiescence of almost all Guate- malans. Their promotion of labor organiza- tion and agrarian reform has tended to neu- tralize political opposition by creating mass support for the present regime. Any objec- tion to the trend of developments in Guate- mala has been stigmatized as resistance to the Revolution of 1944 by "feudal" and "impe- rialistic" interests. 14. The toleration of Communist activity which characterized the early years of the Arevalo Administration has developed into an effective working alliance between Arbenz and the Communists. The pursuit of leftist and nationalistic policies has been greatly accel- erated under the Arbenz Administration. His first year in office was highlighted by active Government support for the formation of a national labor confederation and by a joint Labor-Government attack on the United Fruit Company. That attack failed, but the alli- ance of the Government with Communist-led organized labor was firmly established in the course of the struggle. 15. The point of reference for consideration of the present political tensions in Guatemala is the Agrarian Reform Law enacted in mid- 1952. This Law provides for the expropria- tion of large tracts of unused land and their distribution to farm workers. Although pre- sented as a long-overdue measure of social and economic reform, the Law has strong political motivation and significance. Communists and fellow-travelers played a leading part in its enactment; they honeycomb the National 3 Agrarian Department established to adminis- ter it. The Communists have incited disor- derly peasant seizures of privately owned lands. The Law is being administered in such a way as to destroy the political effectiveness of the large landholders and to mobilize the hitherto politically inert peasantry in support of the regime. 16. The recent congressional electoral cam- paign has further emphasized Arbenz' political alliance with the Communists. Pressure from the President's office forced some reluc- tant Administration supporters to accept the newly reorganized and legalized Communist Party (called the Guatemalan Labor Party, or PGT) into the Electoral Front, the pro-Admin- istration coalition. The Electoral Front swept the country, except Guatemala City, where its ticket was decisively defeated by a strong anti- Communist vote. The over-all result of the election was a reduction of Opposition strength in Congress from eleven to five of the 56 seats. Although Communist Party representation remained at four, the Con- gressional membership includes several addi- tional crypto-Communists and a majority may be considered sympathetic toward the Com- munist Party line so long as Arbenz favors it. 17. A further increase in political tension has resulted from a Supreme Court decision favor- able to a Guatemalan landholder who had appealed for protection from arbitrary execu- tion of the Agrarian Reform Law. At the in- stigation of Arbenz, the Guatemalan Congress immediately unseated the justices who favored this decision and replaced them with others more reliable from its point of view. This action provoked an intense but transitory re- action on the part of professional and other elements in Guatemala City already anti- Administration in sentiment. 18. President Arbenz has a middle-class back- ground, as have most of his political associates. At least initially, his involvement with Revolu- tionary forces was probably as much a matter of simple political expediency and opportun- ism as of personal inclination. By now, however, he has become emotionally com- mitted to the social and nationalistic objec- tives of the Revolution of 1944, especially to thedikeellar Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 ' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 4100i1111101* 4 Agrarian Reform. Although probably not himself a Communist, he has found Commu- nist leaders among his most ardent and useful supporters and values accordingly his political alliance with them. Inasmuch as Arbenz has thus far kept personal control of the consid- erable powers of the Guatemalan Presidency, it is still possible for him to break with the Communists and to moderate the policies of his Administration. He has shown no inclina- tion to do so, however. As the situation in Guatemala develops the political alternatives open to him are steadily reduced. Communist Strength and Influence 19. The Guatemalan Labor (Communist) Party is estimated to have no more than 1,000 members, of whom perhaps less than one-half are militants. The Party is in open communi- cation with international Communism through the Communist-controlled interna- tional labor organizations (the Latin Ameri- can CTAL and the world-wide WFTU) and through visits made to the Soviet Bloc by in- dividual Communists and front group delega- tions. 20. The Communists have achieved their pres- ent political influence in Guatemala, not as a political party competing with others, but through personal influence with the President and through the coordinated activity of in- dividual Communists within the leftist politi- cal parties and labor unions which emerged from the Revolution of 1944. This Commu- nist infiltration of other parties and organiza- tions has been facilitated by the coincidence of avowed Communist social and "anti-imperial- ist" objectives with those of the Revolution. The recent legalization of the Party and its acceptance into the pro-Administration Elec- toral Front has not altered its basic strategy of seeking power through infiltration rather than through open political competition. Its immediate objective is not a "People's Democ- racy" under open and direct Communist con- trol, but rather to neutralize Guatemala as an ally of the United States and to convert the Government into an effective, though indirect- ly controlled, instrument of Communism. 21. With the assistance of the Government, Communist and Communist-influenced labor leaders have been the most successful organ- izers of Guatemalan labor. Their formation of the General Confederation of Guatemalan Workers (CGTG) and Government pressure for labor unity have facilitated the extension of their control over all organized labor. In the important railway workers' and teachers' unions, however, there has been some rank- and-file opposition to association with Com- munism. In 1952, moreover, rank-and-file de- fection from Communist leadership was an important factor in breaking a major strike against the United Fruit Company. The basic weakness of Guatemalan Communist labor leadership is that it is imposed from above through top control of the machinery of labor organization and cannot be sure of rank- and-file support in all circumstances. 22. Implementation of the Agrarian Reform Law has opened a new field of Communist or- ganizational activity. The Communists are seeking to mobilize the hitherto inert mass of rural workers through the CGTG and the Na- tional Confederation of Guatemalan Peasants (CNCG) , in which they exercise a strong in- fluence. 23. Through their leadership in organized labor and their influence with the President and within the pro-Administration political parties, the Communists have gained many positions of influence within the Government: in Congress (where they dominate the Spe- cial Committees on Agrarian Reform and La- bor Code Revision) , in the National Electoral Board, the National Agrarian Department, the Institute of Social Security, the Labor Courts, the Ministry of Education, and the Presi- dential Secretariat of Propaganda, and in the official and pro-Administration press and radio. Their influence is extended by an in- definite number of Communist sympathizers in similar positions. At the same time, no Communist holds any position of Cabinet rank and the Communists appear to have made little or no effort as yet to gain control over the Police or the Army. 011111.16P- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 5 Anti-Communist Elements in Guatemala 24. Various elements in Guatemala, including many loyal adherents of the Revolution of 1944, view with increasing concern the rapid growth of Communist influence in that coun- try. These elements, however, have shown little capacity to organize for effective counteraction. In general, each has tended to react only as its own peculiar interests were directly affected and all have been deterred by the success of Administration propaganda in stigmatizing any criticism as opposition to the principles of the Revolution of 1944 and support of "feudalism" and "foreign economic imperialism." 25. Aside from US private interests in Guate- mala,1 the large Guatemalan landholders have been the chief target of the Revolutionary pro- gram. During the Arevalo Administration the landholders failed in their attempts to alter the course of the Revolution. They now appear to be politically isolated and incapable of effective self-defense. 26. The Catholic hierarchy in Guatemala is implacably opposed to Communism, but the Church has been excluded from an active role in national affairs since the late Nineteenth Century. Moreover, the Church is handi- capped by the meagerness of its resources, the small number of priests in proportion to pop- ulation, the fact that most priests are aliens subject to deportation, and the lack of a pro- gram capable of competing with the Commu- nist-led labor movement or with Agrarian Reform. 27. Urban opposition to Communism (largely confined to Guatemala City) is composed of: (a) commercial and manufacturing interests; (b) certain professional groups; (c) university students; (d) moderate labor elements; and (e) the market women of Guatemala City. This urban opposition is strongly anti-Com- munist, but it is also strongly nationalistic. In particular, it resents the predominance of US private economic interests in Guatemalan The United Fruit Company, the International Railways of Central America, and Empresas Elec- tricas (the principal electric light and power company) . life. So far the Arbenz Administration has treated Guatemalan urban economic interests with consideration, has supported them against foreign competition, and has made no sustained effort to break their strong political position in Guatemala City. 28. The political effectiveness of the urban opposition has been hindered by the multi- plicity of its elements and by conflicts of in- terest among them, as well as by their con- tinuing loyalty to the stated objectives of the Revolution of 1944. Nevertheless, the opposi- tion won the mayoral election in Guatemala City in December 1951 and even more deci- sively defeated the Electoral Front there in the January 1953 congressional election. The unwillingness of urban opposition groups to be identified with the landholders will remain an obstacle to the unification of all anti-Com- munist elements in Guatemala. The Position of the Army and the Police (the Guardia Civil) 29. The Army (6,000 men) is the only organ- ized element in Guatemala capable of rapidly and decisively altering the political situation. The two regiments (1,600 men) stationed in the capital city are an elite force trained under the supervision of the US Army Mission and better equipped than other units of the Guatemalan Army. The Guardia Civil (3,500 men) is dispersed in small detachments ? it could neither defeat an Army coup nor itself overthrow the Government without Army sup- port. All officers in the Guardia Civil are Army officers. 30. Since the Revolution of 1944 the Army and the Police have refrained from active par- ticipation in politics while supporting the con- stitutionally established administrations of Arevalo and Arbenz. The present Army lead- ers owe their personal advancement to the Revolution, and particularly to Colonel Ar- benz, who was a military leader in the Revolu- tion and Minister of Defense under Arevalo before himself becoming President. There is no reason to question their personal loyalty to Arbenz. Any possible disaffection in the Army would be likely to occur at the junior 1110111Fr Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 1110.11 officer level. Arbenz has sought to enhance morale through pay increases, additional al- lowances, quarters for many field grade offi- cers, promotions every three years, duty-free commissary privileges, and appointments to desirable government positions. Especially generous treatment has been provided for the officers of the two regiments stationed at Guatemala City, while less reliable officers have been assigned to isolated posts in the hinterland. The military units outside of Guatemala City have little potential for effec- tive revolutionary action because of their dis- persion and isolation, the inferiority of their equipment and training, and the watchful supervision of trusted area commanders. The rank-and-file of the Army is conscripted and is susceptible to the same political appeals which the regime addresses to the mass of the popu- lation. There is little or no Communist pene- tration or influence in the Army. International Relations 31. Guatemalan foreign policies reflect the nationalistic and "democratic" attitudes asso- ciated with the Revolution of 1944. Although they have not been systematically antago- nistic toward the United States, Guatemala has frequently taken occasion to demonstrate its independence of US leadership and in general has been less cooperative than could be desired, particularly in Hemispheric affairs. Moreover, the regime has systematically been hostile toward US private economic interests in Guatemala (the United Fruit Company, the International Railways of Central Ameri- ca, and Empresas Electrica) . In keeping with its attitude toward "colonialism," it has given tacit support to Puerto Rican nationalism. It has complicated its adherence to the Rio Treaty with reservations relating to its claim to Belize (British Honduras) . It has sub- scribed to the principle of inter-American military cooperation, but narrowly interprets that commitment. It voted for the UN "Uniting for Peace" resolution, but has de- clared that it would not implement it. These attitudes are not unique in Latin America, but Guatemalan propaganda in relation to them has a strong anti-US slant. Detriment to Hemisphere solidarity has not deterred and 6 would not deter Guatemala from any course of action suggested by its own interests. 32. Since 1944 Guatemala has supported the "democratic" elements of other Caribbean countries in their struggles against "dictator- ship" and has provided material assistance to "democratic" exiles from such countries. During 1948-1950 Guatemala supported the filibustering operations of the "Caribbean Legion" against the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica. Since 1950 the Legion has ceased to be operational, largely because of the with- drawal of Guatemalan support for such opera- tions. However, Guatemalan official propa- ganda, with its heavy emphasis on conflict between democracy and dictatorship and be- tween national independence and "economic imperialism," is a disturbing factor in the Caribbean area. Moreover, the Guatemalan Government, at the least, tolerates and in- directly assists clandestine Communist sub- versive activities in other countries. The Guatemalan Communist Party absorbs Carib- bean exiles into its local organization, particu- larly into its labor and front groups, and through them it maintains contact with dis- affected elements in other countries, thus enhancing its capabilities as a focal point for subversive activity throughout the Carib- bean area. 33. Ever since the breakup of the Central American federation in 1839 there have been periodic attempts to restore some degree of union among the five states. Guatemala, as the principal state, has usually been the leader in such efforts. In 1951 El Salvador proposed the formation of an Organization of Central American States (ODECA) with a view toward gradual economic union and eventual political union. Guatemala at- tempted to assume the leadership of this movement, but El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, alarmed by the manifestations of Communist influence in Guatemala, showed themselves resolved to use ODECA as a means of combatting Communism. In consequence Guatemala has withdrawn from ODECA, alleging the existence of an international con- spiracy to interfere in Guatemala's internal 41111011111110 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 ? affairs. This withdrawal confirms Guate- mala's isolation in Central America. 34. Simultaneously with its withdrawal from ODECA Guatemala complained to the United Nations regarding this alleged foreign inter- ference. It is notable that Guatemala by- passed the Organization of America States in addressing this complaint to the UN. It probably calculated that its charge that US private interests (i.e., the United Fruit Com- pany and its affiliates) were responsible for a "vast conspiracy" to subvert the existing regime would enlist the support of the Soviet and Arab-Asian Blocs in addition to that of such Latin American countries as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico. 35. El Salvador has shown extreme sensitivity regarding the danger of an extension of Com- munist influence from Guatemala into El Salvador and other neighboring states; there are persistent reports that El Salvador is giving serious consideration to joint military action with Honduras and Nicaragua against Guatemala. Other Caribbean countries, par- ticularly the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Venezuela, have also shown concern re- garding the development of Guatemala as a center of subversive influence and even of subversive operations. Probable Future Developments 36. Implementation of the Agrarian Reform Law of 1952 will be the principal objective of the Arbenz Administration during 1953. In the process the large Guatemalan land- holders and the United Fruit Company will certainly be victimized. The net internal political effect of Agrarian Reform will prob- ably be to strengthen the Arbenz Adminis- tration. Neither the landholders nor the Fruit Company can expect sympathy from Guatemalan public opinion. Redistribution of their land will be used to mobilize the hitherto inert mass of rural workers in sup- port of the Administration. Agrarian Reform will also afford the Communists an opportun- ity to extend their influence by organizing the peasants as they have organized other workers. 7 37. Agrarian Reform has already intensified a sense of insecurity which has had a de- pressing effect on business activity in Guate- mala. As regards agricultural production its immediate effects are likely to be negligible: as presently implemented it will do little more than increase the number of subsistence farms. In the longer run it may seriously curtail the production of the Fruit Company plantations. As long as coffee prices hold up, however, the general economy of Guate- mala is not likely to be vitally affected. 38. The dissatisfaction of important urban elements will probably increase, but effective political unity among these elements is not likely to be achieved. The political union of rural and urban interests in opposition to the Arbenz Administration is even less likely. No group or foreseeable combination of groups is likely to be able to bring about any signifi- cant moderation of the Administration's policy by political action. No revolutionary attempt opposed by the Army can be expected to succeed. 39. The Army could effect a rapid and de- cisive change in the Guatemalan political situation if it were to take concerted action. Although a quick change of attitude is always possible, there is no present reason to doubt the continued loyalty of the Army high com- mand and of most of the Army to President Arbenz. The Army could not be expected to take revolutionary action unless its leaders became convinced that their personal securi- ty and well-being were threatened by Com- munist infiltration and domination of the Government, or unless the policies of the Government were to result in extreme social disorder and economic collapse. 40. As long as President Arbenz remains in power2 the Arbenz-Communist alliance will probably continue to dominate Guatemalan politics. Any increase in political tension in Guatemala would tend to increase Arbenz' political dependence on this alliance. 2 Arbenz' legitimate term in office will expire on March 15, 1957. Whether he will reach the end of his term, whether he would then retire, and what the character of his successor might be cannot now be estimated. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 ? *11111101111111M 41. The Governments of El Salvador, Hon- duras, and Nicaragua will continue to seek means to oppose the Communistic tendencies of Guatemala, and will give serious considera- tion to the possibility of effecting a political change in Guatemala through clandestine support of revolutionary activities. It is highly unlikely, however, that they would undertake an open military intervention in Guatemala or actually could organize an effective operation of that character in view of the limited strength of their armed forces, the proportion of that strength re- quired for the maintenance of their own in- ternal security, the fact that their forces are ill-equipped and untrained for field opera- tions, the (for them) probably insuperable logistical obstacles to an open invasion of Guatemala, and the internal and internation- al political difficulties which would ensue. Moreover, foreign military intervention would tend to cause all factions in Guatemala to unite to repel the invasion. So long as it remains united, the Guatemalan Army could defeat any force which El Salvador, Honduras, 8 and Nicaragua were capable of deploying against it. In the event of such an invasion Guatemala could present a clear case of for- eign intervention to the Organization of American States. 42. The Guatemalan Government will prob- ably continue to assist Communist subversive activities in the Caribbean area, but will prob- ably avoid involvement in military operations like those of the Caribbean Legion in 1948- 1951. To counterbalance its isolation in Cen- tral America it will continue to seek political support elsewhere, particularly in the United Nations. If Latin American attitudes, as re- vealed at the UN, justify such a course, it will probably raise the same issue of foreign inter- ference in the Organization of American States. It would certainly seek to invoke the Rio Treaty as well as the UN Charter if it were to be invaded by its neighbors. 43. Guatemala's tolerance of Communism and hospitality toward exiles makes it available as a convenient haven for Communist fugi- tives from the United States. 440esiiik Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/12 : CIA-RDP79R01012A002700050001-8