APPENDICES TO NIE-90: SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES THROUGH MID-1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002900010009-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 1, 2012
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 4, 1953
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIKATES
4 Vkwah 1953
I 1 T FOR: Ix. A11en LVans (am)
Cowl Ger d. F. Li. 9 USA (G..2)
Captain Man L. Reed, USX (ONI)
Colonel Jack E. Thos USAF' (AFOIN-2B )
Captain John A. 1ok, t1SN (JIG)
Appendices' to NI 9P: Soviet Bloe Capabilities
tbrough 11955
i. The term of reference for the Appendices to X90
are attached. These were agreed upon by the IA,C representatives
on 3 March.
2.
The assi nt of contributions is as follow:
AMMrA A
I OT Prime 4 Sams
,II Cau -+ Services and OIR
I71 OSI pr + Services
Aend B
II G-24 ORR
III At?OIN +
IT 001 + .
Ate
I OIR
II OIR
III OIIR 4 Sees
Contributi are due by 13 April
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS:
O DECLASSIFIED
Distribution "B"
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS : S
.103
RUTH:
]DATE:L-AVI EVIEWER:
or,yj
25X1
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SECURITY INFORMATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
. 4 '.,arch 1)53
SUBJECTS NIF. 9O SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES, THROUGH
MID-1955 (OUTLINE FOR A PPT .VICES)
APPENDIX A
NON-MILITARY FACTORS AFFECTING BLOC CAPABILITIES
O INTFRML POLITICAL FACTORS
Stability of the regi !eo Stalin's role. Structure and
effectiveness of controls. Impact of Stalin's death on
stability and on policy. Current and probable future
prohl.e and vulnerabilities.
B. Soviet Control over-Satellites
Character, extent,, and techniques. Principal problems
and vulnerabil,i,tiesa
Stability of regimes 0 Structure and effectiveness ' of
controls.. Current and probable future problems and
vulnerabi,lities o
CO AA E TIAL
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no Co i unist Chi
Stability of the regitrxe0 Structure and effectiveness of
controls o . Current and probable future problems and
vulnerabilities.
E. Relations of USSR with Co nist China
Character of the relations0 Current and probable future
interests of two states. Current and probable future
problems and vulner?abi.l.ities e
ADDITIONAL QUFSFICNS CONCERNING INTERNAL POLITICAL FACTORS
A. What political social,, or military problems within each
Rl.oc state, and between the states forming the Bloc ray
develop in such a way as to weaken or to strengthen Bloc
capabilities?
Be What are' the major vulnerabilities within each Bloc state
and between the states forming the Bloc which can be
exploited by Western political warfare?
II. ECONO? IC FACTORS (fox, USSR,, Satellites,, and Communist China,,
an or R oc . as a whole)
Size, Rates of growth. Contributions of USSR., Satellites,,
and Com cnnist China. Comparisons of USSR with US and of
Bloc with NATO.
- 2 CO FIfFRIii?,
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CONE EDENTIAL 144W
Bloe Economic Policy
Current and probable future program. Trends in major.
economic sectors. Production of key mater?ialsp services,,
and weapons < Current status and probable future rates of
collectivization.-
C. Poalation and Labor Force
Size. Annual increment in manpower pool. Labor pro-
ductivity. Current and probable future achievements and
problems,,
D. - Ability to Expand Military Frodicti.on
Current and probable future allocation of GNP to defense,
investment, and consumption. Comparison with. USO with
NATO., and with Soviet World War 11 experience..
E. Ability to Ecport
Current and probable future . ab, l ity to exporet o Effects
on internal programs o
F. Strategic Posture of Bloc Econo
Economic self=sufficiency and vulnerability to economic
warfare. Concentration and dispersal of industry. Trans-
portation. Food supply,, Stockpiling. Major points of
vulnerability (inherent weaknesses)
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A prrrONAL QUESTIONS C(11CEENxNO ECONt,I!IC FACTORS
Ao What an the size, cozaposMone. and rate of growth of
the norwagricultural and as icultural Labor forces of
the Moo? What are the significant trends in labor
ssuppLy and labor productivity? How will theme develop.
manta -affect Bloc economic growth and Bloc military sad
political warfare strengths and capabilities?
Bo What consaaoditi os and capital goodeg and in what quantitye
can the Bloc export without earl o=ly impairing its
Internal programs?
Go Whitt is the. dapealdence of the various countries of the
Bloc and. of the principal industries of the Bloc upon
outside areas for eeozaa3mic development? How vulnerable
care the individual countries and industries of the ' Bloc
and the Blop an a whole to economic warfare?
Do What is the present degree of concentration sad dieperaei
of industry? That will be the degree of concentration by
principal induct and by geographical area by mici-1955?
Ev 71st, limits do the availability of economic resources to
the Blocs and the resource allocation to defense projected
in paragraph IX a D (page 3)'o set upon the expansion of
output of military equipment?
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Fe What are the character and extent of the Soviet economic
contributions to Cc I ist China and how significant to
Chinese Caearmtniet economic nd military strength are they?
What has been the effect upon the USSR? How large and how
significant will the Soviet contribution be throughout the
period of this estimate? Iliat will be the effect of this
on the Soviet eoon*W?
Co. What are to character and extent of the Chinese Communist
contributions to the USSR end how significant to Soviet
ecorrnie and rd itary strength are they? What, hoe been the
effect upft Cc nist China? Clow large and how significant will
the Chinese Coerau~isat contribution be throughout the -period
of this estimate? What will be the effect of this on the
Chinese Communist econcey?
111. SCIENTIFIC FACTORS
Ao Basic ?rends to Bloc Science and Tecbnolo~
rrerIr ^ 1~1~n1r ?
Research and development program. Vial comparison of Bloc
scientific capabilities with those of the West.
B. Bloc Scientific Resources
Size and quality of training prograne.
Education program,
Equipment ad laboratory facilities. Effect of Soviet
ideology and of Soviet system. Evaluation of capabilities in
various scientifiMMENTIAL
so 56
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VVIVI IULII I It18 11400
Co Cuxent and Probable Future Achievements of Soviet Science.
Do Contributions of Satellite and Chinese Co uniat Science
to Bloc Science,
CONFIDFNTIAI
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Ground, air, naval,. Supplies of equipment and weapon,
Mobilization capacity. Significant strengths and weak-
nesses. Comparison Frith US and with NATO.
I. GAL SUMMRY
A. Stx?en th oaf? r?med or ees (current and futua e)
B. Bloc Military Program
BLOC MILITARY STRENGTH
~.=.iLv6dwi.~i, . vvi4" twL- -
developments, Strategic concepts,
C. Over--all. Operational Effectiveness of Bloc Armed Forces
Coordination. Commando Comparison of effectiveness of
Bloc forces by potential theaters of operation. Comparison
with US and NATO in size of divisions,, .fire power, mobility,
air support, logistics9 ,
.flo BLOC GROUND STRENGTHS
A. Soviet Army (current and future)
Strength, composition, equipment, training, morale, combat
effectiveness, mobilization potential o Significant strengths.
and weakness es a Production of ,ateriel,
TIAL
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B. We European S ?en ttx Trent and
future)
Soviet forces in Europe.
-: atelllte arm es. (Examine same factors
as for Soviet ArMW
M. s.ion r Co npa ison with NAao above*)
Logistical (position,
0~ Bloc Forces in the Far East (current and future)
USSR0 ,g, Communist China.
-North Korea. (Examine same factors
as for Soviet Arr
Viet. W xn a ve")
Logistical posi i.on
Soviet Air Forces (current and sure)
Aircraft strength in operational units and in reserve:,
Trends in com rsitioir.A equipment, training, strategic
n :bili ty s and e:ffectiveness ~ Aircraft px octict,ion by type,
Logistical position in rope and in Far Est,
B. Shiite Air Foroea current and f:jtur
Mission. Aircraft strength;, Effectiveness. Logistical
Position s
rnNRfENTIAL
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C Comisninist Air Force in China (current and facture )
Mission0 Aircraft strength. Effectiveness. Logistical
position a
Bloc Medium and Long-Ra.n . e Air Strength (current and f'cture
Aircraft strength, Bases. Combat ranges. Training
Missiles. Unconventional Waeapons of mass lest ctionw
Effectiveness o,
E. 'Bloc Defenses against Air Attack (current and futurse)
Active defenses warning system. aircraft strength avai.iable,
weapons,, proficiency. Passive defense: civil defense
system.
A. Soviet Naval Forces (current and future
Mission., main operational theaters, surface and submarine
strength. Disposition. Operational effectiveness o . Mine
warfare proficiency. Naval construction. Logistical
position. Naval technological, develop.entse
B. Soviet I ya;, Strixcing Forces
surface strengho
Amphibious strength. Bases. Submarine strength. Strategic
mrtobi.l.ity,
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C. Satellite and Comnist Chinese Navies
Mixxsion n Strength a Effectiveness.
Size. Strength and weaknesses.
ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS CONCERNING BLOC MILITARY STRETCH{
A. How are the Bloc armed forces now distributed geographically?
What rwAor considerations govern the distribution of Bloc:
armed forces: strategic, economic, administrative, security',,
etGo? Are these considerations likely to be revised during
the period of this estimate?
B? What are the distinctions in quality_, equipment., and combat
effectiveness within the armed forces of each state? (For
instance, we need an analysis demonstrating that so r~maxzy
Soviet divisions are of high quality and are full', ega:ipped;
that so at .ny others are at half strength, that information
on so many others is very limited., etc )
Cn What are the current and probable future Bloc reserves of
mahpower? and of equipment (tanks, aircraft,. etco)1 Hop
will estimated future changes influence Bloc strength
4
capabilities?
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What is the level of military stockpiling in !,tern
Di.rope, the USSR.. and Con m nist. China? For how lon a
period could these stockpiles support comrlxit operations?
E. What are the principal weaknesses of the Bloc. armed
forces? How much progress will be evade in corr?ectfng
these within the period of this estit??
F. What percentage of the Block major surface and sub nine
G- What is the status of Soviet sno ?ke:l. deve1
many sub rines are snorkel.- t'ipped?
H0 'What are the present strength and probable development of
Bloc amphibious forces?
Role of USSR and Commnist China in international. Carom. ist
movement o Role and discipline of national Comnturi .a d parties
outside Bloc. Major problems and issues
it
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Bloc 'oli tip' .. ilarf,tee Stx~e tri
Size? power, leadership.. and organization of Cormnist parties.
I ':trine. ;elation to Bloc T :Iiit ry #V*Ve6 ,, Ski. Genera
%ulnerabilitier of Bloc.
FxI)t -MO AL QU 4' '.f" NS CONCERNING flLOC ?OL1T'1CA.L 4ARFARE 5TR&Y--'-M
Ac How e f`ective will. 'the Kremlin be throughout the period of
?ni estimate in r in ird.r ; its control over the inter-
national Commnist rov'eren' ?
.' b,at affect will developments within yhe Bloc rave
31oc po itica warfare strengths?
it >~4 -mrj1uid the growth ta..i, Western e nity and stre.r ,th a. f'ect
}31 politic .. warfare strengths? How world the deci.f one
of Western Unity and strength affeert . ".oo political ar
fare strengths?
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