NEW ESTIMATE ON PROBABLE SOVIET COURSES OF ACTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A003500020013-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 2013
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: February 19, 1954
• Content Type: MEMO

- Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/08: CIA-RDP79R01012A003500020013-9
STANDARD FORM NO. 64 \CO/ t
Office Memorandum ? UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
TO
FROM
SUBJECT:
Acting Chief, USSR Division
Acting Chief, USSR Branch
DATE: 19 February 1954
New Estimate on Probable Soviet Courses of Action
The "one-paper approach" described in this proposal appears to
be a profitable one, particularly if the Soviet Bloc rather than
the Soviet approach is adopted. Since the advent of the Malenkov
regime, developments within the satellites and in Sino-Soviet
relations, such as the status of North #orea? have appeared to
be of increasing importance and could best be reflected in an esti-
mate covering the entire Bloc*
It is suggested that a category be added to the main outline
of the paper as "II* & Estimate of Vulnerabilities in the Commu-
nist World." Such a discussion could go beyond the material de-
veloped under "I. Main Factors Affecting Soviet Courses of Action"
if it adopted the same approach as the section on the Soviet esti.
mate toward the non-Communist world described in II but turned
that view inward. Examples might be "What is the Soviet estimate
of future uprisings in the satellites and their effect on the USSRts
international position", or "What is the Soviet estimate of the de-
velopment of China's economic plan and the effect on Sino-Soviet
relations." Treatment of Bloc material in this manner might also
develop considerations pertinent to treating "III. B. Probable
Soviet Course of Action*"
A few .additions have been noted on the diFealfrpis of
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. t
reference. .DECLASSIFIED
"CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S ? C
NEXT REV' DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
IIATF.Le kk REVIEWER: Of$(5 5- 7 '
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/08: CIA-RDP79R01012A003500020013-9