ANTI-COMMUNIST RESISTANCE POTENTIAL IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 12, 1955
• Content Type: NIE

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'NIE 1 0-55
12 April 1955
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER 10-55
ANTI - COMMUNIST RESISTANCE POTENTIAL
IN THE SINO - SOVIET BLOC
Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff.
Concurred in by the
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
on 12 April 1955. Concurring were the Special Assistant,
Intelligence, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of
Staff, G-2, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval
Intelligence; the Director of Intelligence, USAF; and the
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff. The Atomic
Energy Commission Representative to the IAC, and the
Assistant to the Director; Federal Bureau of Investigation,
abstained, the subject being outside of their jurisdiction.
The Annexes to the Estimate (pages 6-31) were coordinated
among the IAC Agencies.
DOCUMENT NO.
I
NO CHANGE IN CLAS3--Z'
CLASS. i;r-i;; ED TO: TS S C
NEXT f,-V;-`. 'vt,iE: _ 1Ctl
AU . M: _ R 70.2
DATE:4-1 REVIEWER: d
ET AS3ISTA`:T DIRECTOR ONE
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
1. This estimate was disseminated by the Central Intelligence Agency., This copy
is for the information and use of the recipient indicated on the front cover and of per-
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may be authorized by the following officials within their respective departments:
a. Special Assistant to the Secretary for Intelligence, for the Department of
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d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force
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3. When an estimate is disseminated overseas, the overseas recipients may retain
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quested of the forwarding agency to retain it in accordance with IAC-D-69/2, 22
June 1953.
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the. National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees.. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law...
DISTRIBUTION:
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ANTI-COMMUNIST RESISTANCE POTENTIAL
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
THE PROBLEM
To appraise the intensity and scope of dissidence and resistance in Sino-Soviet
Bloc countries, and to estimate the resistance potential under cold and hot war con-
ditions in the Bloc.'
INTRODUCTORY NOTE
In estimating the resistance potential
of a people in relation to their govern-
ment, it is necessary to know the nature,
extent, and depth of their discontent, the
strength of their will to resist, and their
capability for resistance compared with
the will and capability of the regime to
maintain control.
In a Communist-ruled country the best
known of these factors is the regime's in-.
tention to preserve internal security re-
gardless of cost; its capability of forestal-
ling effective resistance; and its constant
pressure to induce the individual to ad-'
just himself to the Communist environ-
ment.
Lacking any legal avenues for express-
ing dissent, the population still can indi-
cate its discontent through a variety of
actions and inactions unfavorable to the
regime, ranging from individual actions
A o widespread opposition. These types of
resistance are symptomatic of discontent,
but do not necessarily reveal the extent,
constancy, and specific causes of under-
lying discontent. The will to resist, the
skill in doing so, the motivation, and the
opportunities, vary from element to ele-
ment in the population, and from time to
time.
In this estimate, the following termi-
nology is used to describe these types
of action :
1. Dissidence is a state of mind involving
discontent or disaffection with the re-
gime.
2. Resistance is dissidence translated into
action.
3. Organized resistance is that which is
carried out by a group of individuals who
have accepted a common purpose, agreed
1 This estimate covers resistance potential in en-
tire Sino-Soviet Bloc. More detailed coverage
of individual Bloc countries is set forth in the
attached Annexes on Albania, Bulgaria, Czech-
oslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Rumania, the
USSR, North Korea, and North Vietnam. Poland
and Communist China are considered in the
over-all estimate, but no annexes are included
on these countries. For more detailed treat-
ment of these two countries see RIR-1, "Anti-
Communist Resistance Activities and Potential
in Poland," dated 20 July 1954, and RIR-2, "Anti-.
Communist Resistance Activities and Potential
in China," dated 2 November 1954.
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on leadership, and worked out a commu-
nications system.
4.. Unorganized resistance is that which is
carried out by individuals or loosely asso-
ciated groups which may have been
formed spontaneously for certain limited
objectives, without over-all plan or strate-
gy.
5. Active resistance, organized or unor-
ganized, is that which expresses itself in
positive acts against the regime. It may
take such forms as intelligence collection,
psychological warfare, sabotage, guerrilla
warfare, assistance in escape and evasion,
open defiance of authority, or prepara-
tory activity for any of the above. It may
or may not involve violence, and may be
conducted openly or clandestinely.
6. Passive resistance, organized or unor-
ganized, is that which is conducted with-
in the framework of the resister's normal
life and duties, and involves deliberate
nonperformance or malperformance of
acts which would benefit the regime, or
deliberate nonconformity with. standards
of conduct established by the regime.
ESTIMATE
1. There is evidence of widespread dissi-
dence in all Communist Bloc countries.
While in general dissidence is greatest
among the peasantry, even the youth and
industrial workers, two groups which
might be expected to be most favorable
to Communist indoctrination, have be-
come increasingly disaffected in the Euro-
pean Satellites and to a lesser extent in
the USSR.
2.? However, the intensity of dissidence
varies considerably. It is probably least
pronounced in the USSR, where Commu-
nism has become more firmly established.
In the Far East Bloc areas, where Com-
munism is exploiting the new surge of na-
tionalism, dissidence almost certainly is
much less strong than in the East Euro-
pean Satellites, where national interests
are being subordinated to those of the
USSR.
3. Despite the existence of dissidence
throughout the Bloc, active organized re-
sistance is practically nonexistent. A
few isolated. small guerrilla bands may
still be operating in some Satellites, n.ota-
bly in Albania, but they are no more than
a local nuisance which probably will be
wiped out sooner or later by the security
forces.
4. Even though dissidence within the
Sino-Soviet Bloc creates a resistance po-
tential, we believe that under continued
cold war conditions active resistance is
unlikely to develop. There may be a few
isolated - acts of unorganized resistance,
but the effectiveness of Communist se-
curity controls and police state methods
will probably remain such as to make
active organized resistance virtually im-
possible, except in a few almost inaccessi-
ble areas. Therefore, even in countries
where dissidence is strongest, such as East
Germany, we see no prospect of resistance
activities developing on a scale sufficient
to threaten the stability of the regimes.
At a maximum such activities will tend
to delay the achievement of Communist
political and economic objectives. At a
minimum they will constitute a nuisance
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to the regimes and will raise the morale
of anti-Communist elements. Increased
active resistance would be likely only if
the Communist security apparatus were
greatly weakened, or if Sino-Soviet power
and prestige were greatly decreased.
5. On the other hand, a substantial de-
gree of passive resistance is likely to con-
tinue. Such resistance is unlikely seri-
ously to threaten the political stability of
the Communist regimes. However, par-
ticularly in agriculture, it will probably
remain a troublesome and even serious
factor throughout the Bloc countries, im-
peding the fulfillment of their political
and economic programs. Nevertheless,
we believe that the persistent pressures
exercised by Communist regimes will
eventually reduce the extent of even pas-
sive resistance and will almost certainly
prevent the emergence of coordinated re-
sistance activities.
6. In most of the USSR and to a lesser
extent in Communist China, the out-
break of open warfare would stimulate
patriotic feelings in support of the re-
gimes. Widespread destruction or pro-
tracted hostilities, however, might lead
to the emergence of resistance. In the
newly acquired areas of the USSR, such
as the Baltic States and the Western
Ukraine, hopes of liberation would be re-
kindled at the outset, intensifying the re-
sistance potential. In the European Sat-
ellites, the outbreak of war would not
only stimulate hopes for liberation but
would also increase popular unrest and
passive resistance. We believe, however,
that no active organized resistance would
occur, unless the Bloc suffered severe
military setbacks, and Western forces
approached Satellite territory. Commu-
nist military and security forces would al-
most certainly remain sufficiently strong
to prevent or check outbreaks. However,
we estimate that major-resistance move-
ments in the Bloc, comparable to those of
World War II, probably would not develop
in areas still under Communist control
until the local security.organizations had
been seriously weakened and the USSR
and Communist China were unable to
enforce order in their respective orbits.
Until such circumstances arose, activities
of "resistance elements would probably be
confined to intelligence collection and
transmission, surreptitious antiregime
propaganda, aid to Western personnel in
escape and evasion operations, and de-
fection inducements.
7. In many countries of the non-Commu-
nist world there are organizations, com-
posed of and led by persons who have
emigrated from countries of the Soviet
Bloc. In general these organizations
have lost effective contact with their
homelands and do not significantly con-
tribute to resistance potential. Virtual-
ly all have suffered from internal bicker-
ing and lack of funds and have been pen-
etrated by agents of Communist security
forces. The people within the Bloc know
very little about emigre organizations.
With rare exceptions they would almost
certainly not welcome leading emigres in
positions of power after liberation.
8. In the event of war, the nationality
of invading forces probably would in gen-
eral have little bearing on the coopera-
tion offered by resistance elements in the
Sino-Soviet Bloc, provided these forces
were clearly integrated in a broad anti-
Communist military organization. In
certain situations, however, long-stand-
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ing national antipathies might outweigh
anti-Communist feelings. Thus, anti-
Communist resistance activities might
be adversely affected by the prominent
use of : (a) German forces in Czechoslo-
vakia, Poland, and the USSR; (b) Yugo-
slav, Greek, and Turkish units in Bul-
garia; (c) Greek, Italian, or Yugoslav
units in Albania; and (d) Japanese forces
in North Korea and Communist China.
9. The question of responsibility for the
initiation of general war would probably
not substantially affect the will to resist
the regimes in the Bloc countries!
'The Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department
of State, would substitute for this paragraph the
following:
The question of responsibility for the initiation
of general war will not affect the will to resist
in the European Satellites, whose populations are
so overwhelmingly against the existing regime as
to be unaffected by considerations of war guilt.
It will probably have more significance in the
USSR, where support for the regime by the war-
weary population would be decreased or in-
creased by popular judgments as to the aggres-
sive or defensive character of the war.
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ANNEXES TO NIE 10-55
The following Annexes have been coordinated among the IAC Agencies:
Page
Annex A : ALBANIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Annex B : BULGARIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Annex C : CZECHOSLOVAKIA . . . . .. . . . . . . 12
Annex D : EAST GERMANY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Annex E : HUNGARY . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . 18
Annex F : RUMANIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Annex G: USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Annex H: NORTH VIETNAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Annex I: NORTH KOREA" . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 30
SECRET
EdR~T
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ANNEX A: ALBANIA
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. The widespread. popular dissidence in Al-
bania springs from political, social, cultural,
and religious as well as economic causes. The
ruthless efforts of the Communist regime to
destroy individual freedoms, patriarchal fami-
ly patterns, village autonomy, and religion are
particularly resented. For many centuries,
opposition to central authority has been an
Albanian tradition. Local patriotism and
rugged individualism have combined to create
opposition to all authority, alien or native,
beyond the confines of the immediate tribes
or villages. This trait is particularly pro-
nounced in the northern areas predominant-
ly inhabited by the Ghegs, mountain tribes
who until World War I had little contact with
the modern world. The more accessible south-
ern tribes, the Tosks, have been in closer touch
with new ideas and modern techniques, and
the Tosk intellectuals were the first to become
interested in Marxism.
2. Moreover, the present Communist regime
is identified with the traditionally hated
Slavs. Ever since the Slavs drove the Al-
banians back into the mountainous edges of
the Adriatic, the Albanians have been anti-
Slav. The massacre of Albanians by Serbs
during the 1912 Balkan War aggravated this
feeling. Thus Communism, particularly for
the Ghegs, has the handicap of its Slavic asso-
ciation, all the more so since the Albania Com-
munist Party was founded in 1941 by Yugo-
slav Communists who directed the movement
until 1948 when Tito defected and Albanian
Communist leader Hoxha cast his 1o~t with
the Cominform.
3. Another basic cause of dissidence is Com-
munist interference with Albania's cultural
heritage. After Albania became independent
in 1912, a number of French, English, and
Italian schools were created, young Albanians
were sent to Western universities, and West-
ern cultural influence grew considerably. The
regime's attempt to enforce Soviet orientation
has made Albania's few intellectuals pay
perfunctory lip service to Communism but
they remain strongly opposed to Soviet cul-
ture. The regime, apparently unable to
change this situation, has frequently charged
its teachers with still being "bourgeois," and
having a "low ideological level." The Com-
munist crusade against religion has further
increased popular discontent not only be-
cause of interference in matters of belief but
also because religion is regarded as a part
of the national cultural heritage. Religious
groups (Islamic, Greek Orthodox, and Roman
Catholic) which played a major part in the
country's cultural development have been
brought under state control.
4. The present inadequate standard of living
is a further cause of dissidence. Although
living standards have always been low, the
difference between pre- and post- Communist
living conditions is great enough to evoke
grumbling which is considerably enhanced by
government economic measures such as
quotas and forced loans.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
5. Dissidence toward the regime appears
strong among all classes. With the exception
of the top governmental bureaucracy, the
ranking officers in the army, the national and
local Party leaders, and the security forces,
there is no group - even within the Party -
which derives real benefits from the regime.
The suppression of elements considered in-
corrigible and their internment in forced la-
bor camps has exacerbated the widespread ill-
feeling toward the government. After 10
years of Communist rule approximately 10
percent of the population is still in jails and
labor camps. Annual amnesties have not de-
creased the prison population which indicated
that new "enemies of the people" have re-
placed those freed.
6. The Peasantry. Albania is a country of -
peasants, who comprise the largest and most
formidable anti-Communist element. The
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SECRET 7
principal reasons for peasant disaffection are
crushing taxes, heavy obligatory delivery
quotas for which the government pays low
prices, seizure of livestock, imposition of "vol-
untary" (forced) labor and forced state loans,
collectivization pressures and police terroriza-
tion. Mainly because of peasant opposition,
only 16 percent of the arable land has so far
been collectivized. Poor and landless peas-
ants in the south and central areas initially
profited by the so-called agrarian reforms of
1945-1956 but were quickly disillusioned. In-
dividualistic and proud of their past inde-
pendence, the peasants are indifferent to and
care less for Communist ideology. The in-
tense peasant antagonism against Communist
policies largely accounts for lack of reliability
of the armed forces and industrial labor, both
of which groups are recruited chiefly from the
peasantry.
7. Youth. Albanian youth, both rural' and
urban, had joined the liberation movements
against the Italian and German occupation,
and the Communists, camouflaging them-
selves in the National Liberation Front, suc-
ceeded for a period in attracting large num-
bers of youth. However, by 1950 Communist
propaganda had become ineffective because
of economic inequalities, "voluntary" labor,
imposition of a foreign ideology, and economic
want.
8. Military. The rank and file of the Albanian
Army cannot be considered loyal to the re-
gime. One indication is the fact that units
of the army have never been used to stamp
out guerrilla activities. Fanatical Commu-
nist security police were used instead. Only
the security police, some noncommissioned
officers, and ranking army officers who rose
to their present position during the wartime
partisan warfare or under the Communist
regime are considered reliable. These groups,
and the network of informers placed in every
village, are the security backbone of the Al-
banian regime, and have prevented anti-Com-
munist bands from overthrowing the Tirana
government by force.
9. Intelligentsia and Clergy. Intellectuals
and clergymen represent a considerable resist-
ance leadership potential. Most of the Al-
banian intelligentsia fought the rise of Com-
munism during the war. Balli Kombetar
(National Front), the strongest anti-Commu-
nist nationalist organization during World
War II, was founded by intellectual demo-
cratic elements. Many of the intelligentsia
were exiled, executed, or jailed after the Com-
munists came to power. Of the intellectuals
remaining in Albania, only a few can be
trusted by the government. The clergy, par-
ticularly the Roman Catholics, also hate the
regime. While Moslem and Orthodox priests
appear to have been cowed, the regime can
probably not rely on them.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
10. There is evidence that Albanians have not
lost. the hope of eventual liberation, and iso-
lated acts of overt resistance are still reported
to occur. However, mounting police terror
and brutality have decreased active resistance
during the past five years. On the whole, the
success of security forces in detecting and de-
stroying guerrillas has greatly weakened the
small, scattered, and uncoordinated guerrilla.
bands operating in mountain redoubts. Es-
cape to Yugoslavia and Greece and passive re-
sistance have become the primary expressions
of opposition to the regime. Despite police
surveillance, there is passive resistance in in-
dustry and agriculture such as obstructing
the work of Soviet advisers, damaging ma-
chinery, producing goods of poor quality, hid-
ing produce, and failing to meet farm quotas.
EMIGRE GROUPS
11. The situation in Albania differs from that
in other Satellites in that much of the resist-
ance activity that exists is directed by emigre
groups in Greece, Yugoslavia, and Italy. There
are four principal Albanian emigre groups
in the West, the BK (Balli Kombetar), the
Legality Movement (close to King Zog), a
group of nonparty individuals, and the Na-
tional Independent Bloc, whose leaders col-
laborated with Fascist Italy. The first three
groups became affiliated in the National Com-
mittee for Free Albania (NCFA) in 1949. It
gave the appearance of relative strength by
combining most of the emigre groups and
SECRET
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obtaining financial and moral support from
the West. This Western support is the strong-
est unifying factor in the emigration. How-
ever, when in 1953 the National Independent
Bloc and some other individuals were ac-
cepted in the NCFA, certain left-wing mem-
bers of BK split off and formed the National
Democratic Committee for a Free Albania
(NDCFA).
12. There have been some contacts between
resistance elements in Albania and the prin-
cipal NCFA affiliates. Most resistance groups,
particularly those reportedly operating in cen-
tral and southern Albania, appear to have
identified themselves with the NCFA. Al-
though there is still much political and per-
sonal factionalism rending Albania emigre
organizations, they appear to be in a relative-
ly better shape and seem to have more con-
tact with their homeland than the emigres
of the other Satellites.
13. There is also a Yugoslav-sponsored League
of Albanian Political Refugees in Yugoslavia,
which has the advantage of being closer to
Albania than other, emigre elements. Its con-
tacts with certain resistance elements in Al-
bania, through Yugoslav intelligence service
cross-border operations, have probably been
closer and more numerous than those of the
Western-oriented elements with the NCFA
emigres. At one time, arms, supplies, and
money reportedly were supplied to the un-
derground by this group. However, due to
Yugoslavia's normalization of relations with
the Bloc powers, the group's activities have
reportedly been sharply curtailed.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
14. The few isolated resistance bands in Al-
bania may continue for some time to occupy
the attention of Communist security forces
and inflict sporadic damage in the fields of
communication and transportation. How-
ever, the regime's security measures make vir-
tually impossible the organization of guerrilla
warfare on a national, cohesive, and centrally
directed scale. Any guerrilla forces would
probably also be short of weapons and sup-
plies. Thus, a gradual liquidation of these
activities is likely. However, a substantial de-
gree of passive resistance will probably con-
tinue to manifest itself.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
15. Because most Albanians are probably con-
vinced that only an East-West war could bring
them liberation, the outbreak of general war
would almost certainly strengthen their re-
sistance potential. At the very least, it would
probably stiffen the hostility of the peasantry
toward the regime. Both peasants and work-
ers would probably try to sabotage the Com-
munist war effort when they could do so with-
out undue risk to themselves. Furthermore,
the feasibility of at least covert help from Yu-
goslavia, Greece, and Italy, the geographic
isolation of Albania from the Bloc, and the
necessity for the regime to use all available
manpower to secure. its frontiers from attack
or infiltration would probably make it easier
in Albania than anywhere else in the Bloc
for guerrillas to prepare organized resistance.
It is likely that well led and equipped anti-
regime Albanians could infiltrate the country
from Yugoslavia or Greece.
16. Although" large-scale uprisings probably.
would not occur immediately upon. the out-
break of war, Albanian - resistance elements,
if supported from the outside, might be able
to organize some active resistance. However,
the commencement of large-scale guerrilla
warfare would depend upon such develop-
ments as Western military successes, the
weakening of the regime, the attitudes of Yu-
goslavia and Greece, and the ability of the
West and the emigre groups to provide leader-
ship and aid. Unless the USSR were able to
reinforce Albania with Soviet units soon after
the war broke out, a large-scale uprising could
develop, particularly in the northern and cen-
tral regions, before Western forces actually
reached Albanian territory. Such a develop-
ment would presuppose, however, that large
numbers of Albanian conscripts escaped to
the mountains, even though many of their
officers remained loyal to the regime.
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ANNEX B: BULGARIA
1. Traditionally, through race, language, and
culture the Bulgarians have been closely
linked with the Russians. Prior to the Soviet
occupation in September 1944, the majority
of the population favored friendship with the
USSR. But the conduct of the invading So-
viet forces, the ruthless exploitation of Bul-
garian resources by the USSR, and the relent-
less sovietization carried out by Communist
puppets have quickly spread disillusionment
and resentment. Bulgarians have long been
used to political tyranny but the imposition
of a system that made a mockery of their
national sovereignty has alienated most Bul-
garians. The regime's economic policies, are
regarded by most of the population as de-
signed to further Soviet interests rather than
those of Bulgaria. Extensive Soviet controls
have made Bulgaria a virtual Soviet colony,
but available evidence indicates that most
Bulgarians are chafing under their Commu-
nist regime and loathe Soviet domination.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
2. The Peasantry. The peasantry, some 80
percent of the population, constitutes the
strongest opposition element. In the past,
there were comparatively few landless peas-
ants; -most peasants owned a small tract of
land which they tilled with the help of a co-
operative system. They are bitterly opposed
to collectivization. While the regime has
maintained the facade of Alexander Stam-
bolisky's Bulgarian National Agrarian Union,
Communist collectivization policies have null-
ified this gesture. The regime's extremely
unpopular methods of implementing Commu-
nist agricultural doctrine have aroused in-
tense dissatisfaction on the part of most peas-
ants.
3. Industrial workers, at one time the
staunchest supporters of Communism, have
shown increasing dissatisfaction with work-
ing conditions, totalitarian labor discipline,
and' inadequate wages. So far, the "new
course" and the return to Bulgarian control
of some Soviet-Bulgarian joint companies
have had little effect on depressed living con-
ditions. Industrial workers resent the ex-
tremely harsh labor laws which bind them
to their jobs by penalty of imprisonment or
confinement in a forced labor camp and per-
mit mandatory transfers. Significantly, these
laws have been created to prevent "unjustifi-
able absenteeism, growing labor turnover, and
deteriorating labor discipline." Drastic meas-
ures are also being taken to prevent growing
industrial sabotage.
4. The clergy has been subverted or intim-
idated with the help of the government-con-
trolled "Union of Orthodox Priests" and other
pro-Communist religious organizations. The
formerly independent Bulgarian Orthodox
Church, embracing nearly all Bulgarians, has
been compelled. to come under the Russian
Patriarchate. The leadership of the small
Catholic and Protestant communities has been
virtually destroyed, and a large part of the
Moslem minority deported to Turkey. The re-
maining non-Communist clergy is strongly
opposed to the regime and constitutes a con-
siderable resistance potential. Regime meas-
ures to discourage religious practices have
also contributed to dissidence.
5. Youth. There is some evidence that a con-
siderable number of Bulgarian youth may be
gradually losing whatever initial enthusiasm
it had for Communism. The restrictions and
discipline imposed upon it by the Party are
probably increasingly resented. The regime's
irksome methods of indoctrination probably
have caused many young people to resist Com-
munist teachings and to look for liberation
to the West. Evidence suggests that a signi-
ficant number of university students are op-
posed to the regime. However, youth has
little outlet for expressing its resentment.
6. Military. The majority of the officer corps
is probably loyal to the regime. Most officers,
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since the purges of older elements, have ob-
tained their rank through Communist influ-
ence and are not anxious to lose their privi-
leges, even if they do not agree with the re-
gime's policies. The enlisted personnel are
recruited mainly from the peasantry, the
strongest antiregime element, but the loyal-
ty of the Bulgarian Army is probably some-
what higher than in the other Satellites. The
close ethnic relationship of Bulgaria with
Russia probably influences the attitude of the
Army.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
7. Although dissidence is strong in almost
every segment of Bulgarian society, few Bul-
garians have dared to defy the regime open-
ly. The regime has been able to suppress
active resistance and little opportunity for
it exists. At present there is no evidence of
organized resistance; acts of open resistance
are few and reports describing them are
often uncomfirmed. There have been two ma-
EMIGRE GROUPS
9. The few Bulgarian emigre groups are bad-
ly split and plagued by personal rivalries
among the leaders. Until 1952, the Bulgarian
National Committee was regarded as the most
influential but without the support of the
National Committee for Free Europe, its in-
fluence has waned. The most widely known
emigre, former political leader G. M. Dimitrov,
has been unable or unwilling to improve the
situation. Despite extravagant claims of cer-
tain emigre leaders, there is no evidence that
emigre elements have in any way guided or
assisted organized or unorganized resistance
within Bulgaria. Although present evidence
indicates that Bulgarians still remember Di-
mitrov, it is difficult to determine how wide-
spread his following may be.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
jor purges of anti-Soviet elements: one broke 10: In view of the regime's effective security
up anti-Communist opposition between 1944 controls, close Soviet supervision, and the
and 1947; the other, an internal party affair, absorption of Bulgaria into the Soviet security
took place after Tito's 1948 break with the
Cominform and resulted in removal of those
Bulgarian Communists who favored greater
independence of the USSR.
8. On the other hand, some degree of passive
resistance against the regime has continued
in spite of the purges. Instances such as
subtle economic sabotage by peasants and
workers have occurred frequently, although
they are, qualitatively and quantitatively, less
than in most of the other Satellites., Peas-
ants hide livestock and grain, secretly slaugh-
ter livestock, disregard sowing and plow-
ing regulations, avoid planting maximum
amounts of grain, and fail to make use of the
machine tractor stations. Office and factory
workers neglect maintenance of machinery,
refuse to attend conferences and meetings,
interpret government regulations with a
strictness designed to show their absurdity,
malinger, and practice absenteeism. Bulgar-
ians who have the opportunity listen to West-
ern broadcasts which the government is try-
ing to jam. A few Bulgars continue to escape
across the frontiers or defect abroad.
sphere, there is little likelihood that organized
resistance can develop under cold war con-
ditions. Isolated instances of unorganized ac-
tive resistance will probably continue to occur,
but without tangible outside help or a weak-
ening of the Communist apparatus, they will
probably diminish. The average Bulgarian is
too engrossed in the daily struggle of living
and too cowed by the police state to have time
and energy left for resistance activities. At
best, active resistance will be restricted to
antiregime propaganda, some intelligence ac-
tivity, and performing isolated acts of subtle
sabotage, not necessarily recognizable as such.
Cautious passive resistance will probably con-
tinue to be the only real outlet for disaffec-
tion. Since agriculture is the main-stay of
the Bulgarian economy, peasant dissidence
will continue to create major problems for
the regime. However, if the "new course"
is continued and produces tangible results, or
if the Bulgarians come to feel there is little
hope for their liberation, passive resistance
and dissidence may decrease.
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RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
11. Upon outbreak of an East-West war, the
resistance potential in Bulgaria would almost
certainly increase. However, active resistance
probably would be severely inhibited by the
presence of Soviet forces, which could be ex-
pected to move into Bulgaria' and establish
bases for operations in the Near East and the
Mediterranean area. Emergence of large-
scale resistance could not be expected until
the Communists had suffered major military
defeats, transport and communications facili-
ties were disrupted, and above all, until West-
ern invasion were imminent.
12. In the event of such an invasion, especial-
ly if prior contacts had been established for
guiding, coordinating and, supplying Bulgar-
ian resistance groups, outbreak of some guer-
rilla fighting would be likely. Escape and eva-
sion operations for Western personnel could
begin to function. The Rhodope and Balkan
mountains provide ideal terrain for guerrilla
bases. However, participation in such activi-
ties probably would not assume the character
of a mass movement. Although Bulgarian
history has been characterized by individual
acts of violence, 500 years of Turkish rule did
not produce great rebellions. A Bulgarian
popular uprising against the Communist re-
gime almost certainly would not materialize
unless the Soviet. rule had broken down, West-
ern victory appeared assured, and clear-cut
Western policy statements appealing to Bul-
garians had been announced.
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ANNEX C: CZECHOSLOVAKIA
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. Even though the old Czechoslovak Republic
had a more vigorous democratic tradition than
any other Eastern European country and was
strongly oriented toward the West, Commu-
nist strength was greater in Czechoslovakia
than in the other present Satellites. In the
last free elections in 1946, Communist candi-
dates got 38 percent of the votes (43 percent
in Bohemia-Moravia and 30 percent in Slo-
vakia). Since the 1948 coup, however, the
Communist regime's drastic reshaping of
Czech political and economic life has alienated
many one-time sympathizers and even many
Party members. Communist police state
methods, the discrimination against non-
Party members, and the subordination of
Czech interests to those of the USSR stand
in sharp contrast to life under the first Re-
public. Czechoslovakia's new submission to
foreign domination after its long struggle for
independence is deeply resented on cultural
as well as political grounds. In addition, dis-
affection is created by Soviet economic exploi-
tation and internal mismanagement which
have sharply lowered living standards. Food
is scarce, agricultural production is lagging,
and housing is inadequate. Consumer goods
are often either unavailable or poorly made
and expensive. The "new course" has to date
done little to ameliorate this situation.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
2. Industrial workers, many of whom voted
Communist in 1946 and helped the regime
in the 1948 coup, are now one of the most
disaffected groups in Czechoslovakia. They
complain about too long work hours, unpaid
overtime, "voluntary" Sunday shifts, and too
many deductions from the paycheck. They
dislike the severe labor discipline and the
favoritism toward Party members..
3. Youth is restless, disillusioned, and regi-
mented by government youth organizations.
Children of non-Party members are discrim-
inated against in education and restricted in
the choice of career. Most dissatisfied are
those who were denied advanced schooling
on political grounds and sent into unpopular
industries such as mining. The greatest pro-
portion of Czechs escaping into Germany and
Austria consists of persons under 24 years of
age.
4. The peasantry, well aware of the regime's
designs for eventual collectivization, are not
deceived by the temporary reduction of pres-
sures under the "new course." Hostile toward
the government and Party, they complain
about high delivery quotas and low prices,
lack of consumer goods, harassment by local
Party officials, and unfair government distri-
bution of farm machinery and fertilizer.
5. Minorities. Communist attempts to elim-
inate the thorny minority problem in Czecho-
slovakia have so far failed. The Slovaks in
particular appear dissatisfied with Prague's
growing domination of local administration.
They tend to place the blame for this, and the
1948 coup, on the greater popular support
given the Communist Party in Bohemia-Mo-
ravia during the 1946-1948 period. They also
recall past Czech incursions into Slovak
affairs. The Communist Party continues to
have less influence in Slovakia than in Bo-
hemia-Moravia and the Slovak potential for
active resistance is probably higher. Where-
as the German wartime occupation provoked
mainly passive resistance in Bohemia-Mora-
via and only a few isolated acts of defiance
occurred, the Slovak active resistance tradi-
tion was demonstrated in the uprising at
Banska Bystrica in 1944.
6. The clergy, chiefly Roman Catholic, has
been decimated by the regime. Many higher
members of the hierarchy have been arrested
and replaced by priests willing to collaborate
with the Communists. The lower clergy is
under close surveillance and obliged to sub-
mit sermons for censorship. The Church has
been denied the right to educate. Known be-
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lievers are harassed and are deprived of
chances for improvement of their position.
The regime has more recently taken steps
designed to give the impression that it is not
undermining the Church, though in fact such
steps are bringing it more under state control.
These measures have greatly lessened the
clergy's resistance potential.
7. The middle class, especially the professional
and managerial groups, either has been dis-
possessed outright and placed under surveil-
lance, or works under supervision of Party
members whose professional background is
almost invariably inferior. In spite of recent
attempts of the regime to enlist their coopera-
tion, the vast majority of these groups are
thoroughly disaffected; they have lost their
social and financial status, are limited in their
choice of jobs and use of talents, and live in
constant fear of being blamed for any failure
of the regime.
8. Military. Since many officers have a stake
in the continuation of the regime, and there
were thorough purges of pro-Western officers
in 1948, the over-all reliability of the officer
corps has probably increased. . However, there
is evidence that its loyalty to the regime leaves
much to be desired. Unreliability is even more
pronounced among the rank-and-file who re-
portedly resent the harsh discipline, close So-
viet supervision, lack of leave, and constant
indoctrination. As a conscript force, the
army reflects the low morale of the general
population. The air force is probably one of
the least reliable in the Satellites. There have
been several defections from the military
services to the West in the past few years.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
9. Although dissidence seems to be somewhat
more pronounced in Slovakia than in Bohe-
mia-Moravia, there is little evidence of active
resistance in either area. Communist police
controls are so pervasive that people are
afraid to voice their criticism of the regime,
let alone engage in open resistance. More-
over, there is a conviction that Soviet troops,
while not at present stationed in Czechoslo-
vakia, would come to the help of the regime
to put down any revolt that could not be
handled locally, and there is no hope that any
uprising would receive Western help. The
only open demonstration of Czech disaffec-
tion occurred in the abortive Pilsen riots of
June 1953, following the currency reform.
Otherwise, the Czechoslovaks have been sullen
and apathetic, passively expressing their dis-
satisfaction with the regime through a high
percentage of absenteeism (sometimes up to
20 percent of the entire labor force), shoddy
workmanship, high labor turnover, opposi-
tion to farm collectivization and crop delivery
quotas, higher attendance at Church services,
refusal to accept Eastern cultural orientation,
etc. -
EMIGRE GROUPS
10. There are numerous and voluble emigre
groups with headquarters in the US, Canada,
and Europe, but there is virtually no evidence
that any of them play an active role in Czech-
oslovakia resistance. The most important is
the Council of Free Czechoslovakia, consist-
ing of Czechs and Slovaks and perhaps repre-
senting the nearest approximation to the
Masaryk-Benes tradition. The. Czech Nation-
al Council and the Slovak National Council
Abroad are separatist organizations of minor
importance. The extreme-rightist Slovak Lib-
eration Committee, led by Ferdinand Durcan-
sky, who maintains contact with extreme-
rightist Germans, probably has little influ-
ence in Slovakia. Representatives of the old
political parties, and of a Czech labor group
and a Sudeten-German group, also live
abroad, but they have little personal follow-
ing among the emigres in the West and prob-
ably less in Czechoslovakia itself, although the
number, of party followers is probably still
large.
11. It is possible that some contacts between
these organizations and their home country
were maintained between 1948 and 1951, but
there have almost certainly been no contacts
of significance since. According to defector
reports, internal Czechoslovak interest in
emigre groups is feeble and does not indicate
a desire to entrust future leadership to any
of the emigre leaders. Therefore, it is un-
likely that emigres are in a position to direct
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resistance activities nor is there evidence that
any one of the factions would be acceptable
for government leadership in a liberated
Czechoslovakia.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
12. There is considerable resistance potential
in Czechoslovakia, particularly among indus-
trial workers, and there might be an occasion-
al recurrence of isolated riots like that of
June 1953. However, active cold war resist-
ance is highly unlikely to emerge on any sig-
nificant scale so long as there are stringent
police and party controls. On the other hand,
passive resistance will probably continue in
the form of absenteeism, isolated acts of sub-
tle industrial and agricultural sabotage, dis-
seminating the contents of Western broad-
casts, and escapes and defections to the West..
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
13. The intensification of regime security
measures upon the outbreak of general war
in Europe, and the active participation of So-
viet forces, would make immediate organiza-
tion of large-scale resistance all but impossi-
ble. Even unorganized passive resistance
would probably become more dangerous. How-
ever, if the West appeared to be winning, an
increase in passive resistance and unorgani-
zed attempts at sabotage could be expected.
Resistance in the Czech lands would probably
be mostly passive, but in Slovakia more active
resistance might develop. For example, small
anti-Communist guerrilla bands might be able
to operate successfully in the more remote
and inaccessible areas of Slovakia. The suc-
cess of such efforts would greatly depend upon
the ability of the West to establish contacts
and furnish arms.
14. If Western forces approached the Czech
borders and the effectiveness of the security
organization weakened, restlessness and in-
subordination would probably increase sharp-
ly. More intelligence for the West would be
forthcoming, more escape and evasion opera-
tions on behalf of Western personnel would
be undertaken, and intensified anti-Commu-
nist propaganda could be expected. An im-
pending Western invasion of Czechoslovakia
would probably demoralize indigenous securi-
ty forces to such an extent that Soviet troops
would largely have to take over. At such a
time, _ parts of the Czechoslovak Army and
police would probably defect in growing num-
bers. Some of them probably would try to
establish an anti-Communist record by par-
ticipating in organized resistance. At this
point, the anti-Communist intelligentsia,
freed political prisoners and displaced persons
might contribute substantially to organizing
resistance.
15. However, full-scale guerrilla war in Slo-
vakia and open organized resistance in Bohe-
mia-Moravia still could not be expected be-
fore a virtual breakdown of Communist con-
trols. Moreover, there might, be, at least for
some time, conflict between anti-Communist
and pro-Communist guerrillas, diminishing
the effect of resistance and confusing escape
and evasion operations. Some antiregime
resistance elements might also insist on tak-
ing ferocious revenge for their sufferings at
the expense of assisting the West in combat-
ing Communist troops.
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ANNEX D: EAST GERMANY
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. The widespread popular disaffection in East
Germany is intensified by the fact that un-
like the other Satellites, the "German Demo-
cratic Republic" (GDR)1 is not cut off from
contact with the West. The special condi-
tions of the occupation have made impossible
the complete separation of the GDR from
West Germany, and both the GDR and the
Federal Republic have encouraged contacts
between the two areas. Such contacts exist
on an extensive scale. Moreover, the East
Germans are tied to West Germany by com-
mon bonds of national identity and by the
hope that eventual unification will mean lib-
eration.
2. Most East Germans do not feel that they
are living in a separate country and do not
look upon the GDR as permanent. Rather,
they see it as a temporary administrative de-
vice, imposed upon them by Communist pup-
pets backed by Soviet guns. The abortive up-
risings of 17 June 1953 proved to the East
Germans as well as to the Soviets that with-
out the backing of the Soviet Army, the GDR
regime could not remain in power. Moreover,
the Soviet occupation in East Germany can-
not be disguised. Consequently, Communism
is now identified with Soviet rule and dis-
credited accordingly. The leaders of the Com-
munist SED (Socialist Unity Party) and the
government are generally hated and detested.
Police state measures to keep the people in
line exacerbate these sentiments.
3. Economic hardships are another major
cause of antiregime sentiment. Except for
the Party hierarchy, government, and the in-
telligentsia, nearly every East German has
been adversely affected by the practices of the
regime. While the introduction of the "new
course" in mid-1953 and some Soviet repara-
tions concessions had somewhat improved
living conditions, these improvements have
1 For the purposes of this estimate, the GDR is
assumed to include East Berlin.
been insufficient to reduce popular disaffec-
tion. Although the GDR's antireligious cam-
paign has not been as violent as those of other
Satellites, it also contributes to popular dis-
satisfaction. Finally, the regime's attempts
to orient East German culture eastward are
much resented. The East Germans consider
themselves culturally as belonging to the
West, and believe their culture to be superior
to that of the East. Communist attempts to,
change this outlook have contributed to re-
sentment against the regime.
4. Disaffection in East Germany is very great,
not only among the disaffected groups listed
below but also among many rank-and-file
members of the Party and its mass organiza-
tions, the government bureaucracy, white col-
lar workers, and the "technical . intelligent-
sia." During 1953, 340,000 East Germans fled
to West Germany; during 1954, the number
of refugees decreased to 200,000. It has been
estimated that not more than 10 percent of
the population actually support the regime,
and it is almost certain that such support is
confined to people who have a personal stake
in the regime's continuation. Very few are
motivated by ideological conviction.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
5. Industrial Workers. In contrast to the
other Satellites, where the peasantry is the
chief dissident element, disaffection and re-
sistance in the GDR are greatest in the in-
dustrial centers. About one-third of the esti-
mated 6.5 million wage and salary earners
in the GDR are industrial workers. Seventy-
percent of these are employed in the nationa-
ized industries. There is evidence that many
workers, probably a majority, are dissatisfied
with the regime. Most East German workers
have been traditionally social-democratic and
strongly trade union minded. German social-
democracy has always been evolutionary
rather than revolutionary and, therefore, was
the target of intensive Bolshevik hostility.
Since the tradition of free trade unionism is
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so strong, the fact that under the GDR the
unions have become instruments of govern-
ment control has greatly contributed to the
disaffection of the workers. Furthermore,
the workers are disgruntled with low wages,
substandard living conditions, insufficient
food supplies, lack of consumer goods, ever-
present offensive propaganda, forced attend-
ance at political rallies, imposition of Soviet
labor methods, and a constant drive for more
production without adequate rewards.
6. The Peasantry. There are still some 600,-
000 independent peasants in East Germany
who cultivate about two-thirds of the arable
land. Even though many of them benefited
from the postwar land reform, the overwhelm-
ing majority are opposed to the regime, large-
ly as a result of the collectivization program
begun in mid-1952. Special privileges were
extended to members of the so-called "co-
operatives," to the detriment of independent
farmers. Since mid-1952, about one-seventh
of the arable land has been abandoned by its
owners. The "new course" improved condi-
tions somewhat and the regime, in view of
poor agricultural production, slowed down its
collectivization program. However, peasant
disaffection is still strong. Moreover, there
are indications that the collectivization pro-
gram is being resumed.
7. Businessmen. Private industry still ac-
counts for 15 percent of total industrial pro-
duction; private wholesale and retail trade
account for about 6 and 31 percent respective-
ly of trade turnover. Although this group
received some relief as a result of the "new
course," they probably realize that this is only
a temporary reprieve and that their group
will eventually be liquidated. The outlook
of this group is of necessity antiregime, but
many of its elements continue to be conserva-
tive and cautious, inclined only to passive re-
sistance, if any, and that only provided they
see no risk.
8. The Clergy. The Protestant and Catholic
clergy has been outspoken in assailing Com-
munist atheism and combat particularly the
regime's effort to indoctrinate youth. Con-
cessions made by the regime to the Protest-
ants in mid-1953 did not alter their attitude.
The adverse effect of the regime's antireligious
campaign on a large part of the population
and the support received by the churches in
East Germany from the West Germans have
forced the regime to apply a milder type of
persecution than practiced by other Satellite
governments. The resistance potential of
the clergy is considerable, though it is not
at the point of open active resistance at this
time.
9. Military. Many officers of the 100,000 men
KVP (Garrisoned People's Police) and the
small naval and air contingents probably re-
sent Soviet controls. They enjoy preferential
treatment but as a group, their basic loyalty
to the regime is questionable. It is uncertain
whether the GDR regime could rely on them
in time of war, especially if the Communists
suffered reverses, but there is probably less
resentment in this group than in any other
in the GDR, and their resistance potential is
likely to be limited. The morale of enlisted
men is low. The general popular disaffection
is shared by most soldiers, many of whom
have been pressured into service against their
will. In spite of some improvement of their
living conditions during 1954, most of them
are probably not loyal to the regime and
would side with the West if given opportunity.
10. Youth Groups. The regime has made
strenuous efforts to control and indoctrinate
youth. There are indications of support for
the regime by some young people, but many
have become indifferent or disillusioned. The
influence of parents, older workers, and non-
Communist. teachers, and the nearness of the
West still militate against success of the Com-
munist youth program. In most cases, the
attitude of East German youth is one of op-
portunism. Although the majority of East
German youth almost certainly is not yet
loyal to the Communist regime, it has made
little or no efforts to resist the regime. A
relatively small group of more mature young
people may eventually constitute a resistance
potential but just as many will probably be-
come Communist enthusiasts unless their
chances for better living improve greatly.
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INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
11. Despite the great extent of disaffection
in the GDR, with the single exception of the
17 June 1953 uprisings it expressed itself only
in defection, transmission of intelligence, pas-
sive resistance (without risk involved), anti-
regime propaganda activities, and apathy.
Although unrest was growing before June
1953, the intervention of the Soviet Army in
the June uprisings, the lack of expected help
from the West, and lack of progress toward re-
unification weakened East German hopes for
an early liberation and led to a more passive
attitude. The failure of the 17 June upris-
ings resulted in the arrest or flight to the West
of many actual or potential resistance leaders
and made it clear to those who remained that
a successful uprising against the regime is
impossible so long as the Soviet Army controls
East Germany. Some improvement in living
conditions and such political concessions as
more freedom of travel between East and West
Germany, as well as East German reluctance
to take risks against overwhelming odds, have
contrived to keep resistance predominantly
passive.
12. However, the feasibility of access to the
GDR from West Berlin and West Germany
has facilitated the organization of some resist-
ance groups operating from these areas.
These groups encourage cautious covert re-
sistance activities; their main objects are
antiregime propaganda, keeping files of per-
sons in Communist prisons and assisting
families of the prisoners, keeping track of
crimes committed by the Communists, keep-
ing alive the spirit of resistance, and gather-
ing as much information as possible. They
discourage, however, overt active resistance
which stands little chance of escaping harsh
retaliation.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
13. While rearmament of West Germany
would almost certainly raise East German
hopes for eventual liberation from Communist
rule, strengthened GDR police controls, and
Soviet help if necessary, will probably forestall
any attempt at open resistance. So long as the
USSR maintains sizeable forces in East Ger-
many, resistance will almost certainly remain
limited to intelligence collection, antiregime
propaganda dissemination, and defection.
The East Germans realize that the steadily
improving infiltration methods of the regime's
security organs render attempts at organiza-
tion in GDR territory extremely dangerous.
They probably also realize (after June 1953)
that under present conditions tangible West-
ern help for large-scale resistance will not be
forthcoming during the cold war period.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
14. The outbreak of a general war probably
would not lead to organized resistance at once,
although (depending upon the location of
battle fronts and the fortunes of war) there
would probably be an increase in isolated acts
of sabotage and violence. But so long as So-
viet power remained unimpaired, savage re-
taliation for any act of resistance, coupled
with a limited number of areas offering con-
cealment, would make organized resistance
virtually impossible. Active resistance on an
extensive scale would almost certainly not be
initiated until Communist controls appeared
to be weakening or breaking down as a result
of Soviet defeats and the proximity of West-
ern forces.
15. If East Germany became a combat area,
many of those East German forces which
could do so would probably seek to join the
.West in fighting the Bloc. Furthermore, if
military operations were in progress within
the GDR, organized resistance groups almost
certainly would supply information, disrupt
Soviet communications, sabotage war ma-
terial, and assist Western soldiers in escape
and evasion on a scale measured by Western
successes. On the other hand, Western de-
feats would immediately lead to a reduction
in East German resistance activities.
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ANNEX E: HUNGARY
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. Dissidence, which is very widespread in
Hungary, has its roots in economic discontent,
deeply entrenched nationalism, traditional
western orientations, historical and psycho-
logical antagonism toward Slavs, and strong
Roman Catholic religious heritage (two-thirds
of the Hungarians are Catholic). Dissidence
is aggravated by recollection of the 1919 Bela
Kun Communist regime which included Ra-
kosi, Gerd, and other current leaders, by dis-
like of Communism on the part of all age
groups, and by antagonism toward neighbor-
ing Satellites which have acquired former
Hungarian territories. The inadequate stand-
ard of living is probably the most important
cause of dissidence. Work norms are high,
wages are low, housing is poor, and food is
scarce. The people resent regimentation,
compulsory political activities, and the lack
of leisure time. They also resent the oppres-
sive police state system which is maintained
.by the state security apparatus, by the civil
police, and by the presence of two Soviet di-
visions. Apathy and cynicism are wide-
spread.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
2. The peasantry, with the exception of a rel-
atively small number of collective farm mem-
bers who were formerly landless, represents
the largest single focus of opposition to the
Communist regime. The concessions intro-
duced by the so-called "new course" in 1953
have done little to alleviate peasant com-
plaints. In spite of the financial and social
hardships connected with such action, about
one-half of the approximately 515,000 peas-
ants in collectives took advantage of the re-
gime's offer to withdraw if they so desired.
Moreover, the continuation of the "new
course" is uncertain.
3. The majority of industrial workers, some
of whom were among the few original sup-
porters of Communism, now constitute a ma-
jor dissident element. A low living standard,
poor working conditions, the perversion of
labor unions into instruments of the regime,
the constant pressure for more production
without adequate incentives, harsh labor dis-
cipline, and the regime's poor showing in
labor protection and welfare have made the
proletariat a potential resistance element
rather than the "spearhead of revolution."
4. Youth. One of the most conspicuous fail-
ures of the regime has' been its inability to
secure the firm support of youth. By-its own
admission, the principal youth. movement
(DISZ) is plagued by a general apathy to-
ward Party work, which retards the recruiting
of future intellectual cadres for Communism.
Open criticism of this organization has been
rising steadily since 1952, and the "new
course" has so far failed to meet this situation.
The majority of students in high and techni-
cal schools and universities remain negative or
indifferent toward Communism.
5. Military. Considerable resistance potential
is believed to exist within the Hungarian
armed forces. Their loyalty is generally ques-
tionable, except for higher officers who have
the greatest stake in the regime. The Air
Force is believed to be predominantly loyal.
However, since the majority of young army
officers are recruited from rural areas, they
almost certainly share those antiregime atti-
tudes which make the peasantry the greatest
focus of dissidence. The rank-and-file of the
army, who have none of the officers' privileges,
have even less reason for allegiance. Soviet
control of the Hungarian Army contributes to
animosity and disaffection as does forcible
alliance with neighboring Satellites who are
ancient enemies. This resistance potential
of the armed forces, however, cannot be real-
ized unless a marked deterioration of the re-
gime's control system takes place.
6. The clergy, both Catholic and Protestant,
no longer show open defiance of the regime.
They do, however, exercise considerable influ-
ence among the people and, despite their lack
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of aggressive leadership, maintain some covert
and sporadic opposition. The clergy are
cautious and adroit in the use of the "be-
tween-the-lines" technique in sermons and
statements. The government-sponsored Na-
tional Peace Committee of Catholic Priests has
repeatedly admitted failure in propagandizing
Communism. But while the clergy's resist-
ance potential, especially in the provinces,
remains strong at present, it is bound to de-
crease as more and more clergy are replaced
by Communist supporters.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
7. Hungary's recent history, including World
War II, abounds with resistance incidents,
but no broad resistance movement emerged
and no local groups achieved lasting success.
During the German occupation, sporadic acts
of sabotage were committed against the Axis
powers. The much more effective Soviet con-
trol system has restricted Hungarian resist-
ance to passive, unorganized manifestations.
Other factors, such as physically and psycho-
logically exhausting work norms, material
want, and compulsory political activities have
further discouraged active resistance.
8. However; passive resistance in Hungary
appears to have been more widespread and
effective than elsewhere in the Satellites. Al-
though existing controls preclude open up-
risings, intensified passive resistance by in-
dustrial and agricultural workers is impeding
the regime's efforts to build a strong and
viable economy.
EMIGRE GROUPS
9. There are three main Hungarian emigre
organizations : the Hungarian National Coun-
cil in New York, General Andras Zako's
League of Hungarian Veterans with head-
quarters in Innsbruck, and the Hungarian
Liberation Movement, led by General Ferenc
Kisbarnaki-Farkas, with headquarters in
Munich. The leadership of the latter two
groups was merged in 1954. Although it is
possible that these emigre groups have been
in touch with elements of unknown reliability
inside Hungary, it is unlikely that they have,
as sometimes claimed, organized any signifi-
cant resistance movements. Information
19
which they have gathered has I proved of
dubious value. Moreover, the political dis-
unity and the controversial background of
many of their leaders has almost certainly
discredited these emigre groups in the eyes
of resisters inside Hungary. Besides the above
mentioned emigre groups, thereI also exists
a numerically small but well-organized group
of extreme rightists under General Arpad
Henney, consisting of fanatical Nazi-type ac-
tivists'-most of whom were members or sup-
porters of the so-called Arrow I Cross Party
during World War II. This group will not
cooperate with Western powers unless its
conditions are met; its political ideology,
somewhat camouflaged, runs so counter to
Western concepts as to make its successful
integration into a general resistance move-
ment unlikely. There is some evidence that
Yugoslavia has had limited success with clan-
destine operations to propagate Titoism in
Hungary.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
10. Effective internal security control and lack
of know-how will continue to limit the devel-
opment of organized resistance, active or pas-
sive. Cold war activities, at best, will probably
remain restricted to information collection,
clandestine antiregime propaganda, isolated
acts of sabotage, and unorganized passive re-
sistance. Poor terrain impedes the formation
of nuclei for future guerrilla operations; the
development of contacts for escape and eva-
sion would be difficult, even on a local level.
Further factors militating against an active
resistance build-up are : the vigilance of the
police, the presence of Soviet .troops, lack of
experienced resistance leaders, lack, of con-
tact with Western agencies that could guide
and help them, and the absence of a well-
developed security consciousness. However,
Hungarian capabilities for unorganized pas-
sive resistance, especially in industry and
agriculture, will remain substantial.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
11. Under conditions of open warfare, Com-
munist security measures would almost cer-
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tainly be so greatly increased that no signifi-
cant resistance could be expected until West-
ern forces had won major victories in Europe.
In the event of such victories, passive resist-
ance probably would increase sharply, and
clandestine organization of large-scale resist-
ance would be attempted, possibly with the
help of disaffected military or police. elements.
There would probably -",'also be increased pop-
ular willingness to assist in escape and eva-
sion, and defections, would become more num-
erous. However, premature guerrilla war-
fare and sabotage would be likely to provoke
reprisals of a nature which would retard, if
not cripple, the development of effective re-
sistance. If Western military success brought
about a deterioration of the Hungarian state
and security apparatus, resistance activities
would almost certainly sharply increase.
Their scope and effectiveness would depend
upon the extent of Western aid, the ability to
establish communications, and the degree of
weakness in the state security controls. Assist-
ance to, Western forces probably would take
the form of organized support of escape and
evasion operations, information collection,
psychological warfare, sabotage and, possibly,
limited guerrilla warfare. The most likely
sources of defection under such circumstances
would be: (a) army enlisted personnel;, (b)
the mass of political prisoners; (c) the un-
reconciled intelligentsia; (d) peasants and in-
dustrial workers in areas near the Western
forces; and (e) youth.
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.ANNEX F: RUMANIA
1. After the USSR occupied Rumania at the
end of World War II, it quickly proceeded to
re-annex Northern Bukovina and Bessarabia,
liquidate the non-Communist government,
drive the King out of the country, and dele-
gate power to a puppet regime under. absolute
Soviet control. As a result the vast majority
of Rumanians, deprived of their Western con-
tacts and of self-determination, have come to
feel that their country is virtually a Soviet
colony. They have almost certainly identified
Communism with their traditional fear of
Russia. Moreover, Soviet economic exploita-
tion since 1944 has been so great that even a
country as rich in natural resources as Ru-
mania had been chronically in want. War
booty, reparations, and the operation of So-
viet-Rumanian. mixed companies placed a
staggering load on its economy. The sharply
depressed living standards which resulted are
blamed on Soviet exploitation. Adding to
Rumanian fear and resentment on' these
scores, the brutal methods of a Communist
police state have imposed an alien way of life.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
2. Peasantry. The violent opposition of the
peasantry, comprising about 70 percent of the
population, has constrained the regime to pro-
ceed very slowly in collectivizing agriculture.
Not only kulaks and small farmers but also
landless peasants have resisted the process.
It is questionable whether even the poor, land-
less peasants who constitute 42 percent of the
present membership of collective farms, can
easily be induced to adopt the collective prin-
ciple itself. By the regime's own admission
agricultural production is lower than before
the war. The kulaks and small farmers are
producing almost all the grain the country
grows, and the regime has been unwilling to
take drastic steps in the face of their apparent
solidarity. Thus the peasantry constitutes a
formidable resistance potential.
3. Industrial. workers are worse off than the
peasants, who at least are able to dodge
forced deliveries and to acquire on the black
market what is needed for their personal con-
sumption. The urban and industrial popula-
tion suffers from a depressed living standard,
poor housing, food shortages, and other pri-
vations. Workers cannot obtain necessary
consumer goods; they are forbidden to leave
their jobs and are subject to constant political
indoctrination and police surveillance. Those
who supported the regime at the beginning
of the Communist rule are becoming dis-
illusioned, and a considerable passive resist-
ance potential is accumulating,
4. Youth. Large sections of Rumanian youth
are opposed to the regime. Tradition, which
is strong in Rumania, together with the in-
dividualistic tendencies of youth, militate
against acceptance of regimented life and
Communist group control techniques. The
regime has been far less successful in gaining
the loyalty of youth than it had expected.
5. Military. With the exception of those
higher officers who are good Communists (or
who have survived the purges) and who have
a stake in the regime's continuation, the re-
liability of the armed forces is questionable.
Opportunism has been a predilection in Ru-
mania,. ingrained during centuries of foreign
rule, and most of the officers are probably
opportunists. Enlisted men, coming mainly
from rural areas imbued with .the antiregime
feeling, are almost certainly only bowing to
force. If the regime were to lose its grip on
the control apparatus and if Soviet supervision
were withdrawn, very few of the enlisted men
would prove reliable.
6. Intellectuals, clergymen, national minori-
ties. In addition to the above, there are var-
ious lesser groups which might have consider-
able resistance potential. The intellectual
and professional elements in particular have
generally resisted Communist indoctrination.
There is evidence that not enough Commu-
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SECRET
nist-trained teachers are available. Many
members of the professions and almost all of
the former higher and middle classes, now de-
prived of their property and displaced socially,
are intensely hostile to the regime. The top
hierarchy of the Orthodox Church has been
largely reoriented toward the Moscow Patri-
archate and some of the leading anti-Soviet
churchmen have been eliminated, but the
rank-and-file of the lower clergy and the
parish priests remain at heart anti-Commu-
nist. They constitute a considerable resist-
ance potential, as do, the clergymen of the
Catholic and Uniate Church whose institu-
tions have been virtually destroyed. National
minorities, particularly the Hungarians, are
constantly dissatisfied, and, indeed, would be
opposed to any Rumanian government which
would not cater to their national aspirations.
INTENSITY OF DISSIDENCE
7. Although dissidence is strong in almost all
segments of Rumanian society, including the
lower echelons of the government and Party,
active organized resistance has steadily de-
clined in the past several years and appears
to be virtually extinct at present. Isolated in-
stances of active unorganized resistance are
still being reported, and are sometimes ad-
mitted by the Communists. Moreover, the
regime has not succeeded in eliminating pas-
sive resistance, which continues to express it-
self mainly in economic sabotage. However,
such resistance is not exclusively anti-Com-
munist in motivation, but reflects considera-
able degree of self-interest or frustration. Acts
of economic sabotage such as absenteeism,
deliberate damage to machinery, occasional
derailing of trains, arson, work slowdowns,
and general negligence may or may not be
politically motivated. Whatever the motiva-
tion, there does appear to be considerable re-
sistance impeding agriculture, government-
sponsored trade, industry, and the over-all
implementation of the Communist program.
This fact is openly admitted by the regime.
EMIGRE GROUPS
8. King Mihai, who could become a rallying
point of the Rumanian emigration, appears
to accept factions of three exile parties as
legal representatives of the Rumanian people.
Factional strife, however has greatly under-
mined their importance. The King is prob-
ably the only person who maintains a sem-
blance of continuity of a non-Communist Ru-
manian government-in-exile. There is also a
group of left Socialists, and some Iron Guard-
ists, who are opposed to a restoration of the
monarchy. Evidence exists that the King is
still popular in Rumania, particularly among
the peasantry, but the problem of non-Com-
munist succession to the Communist regime
will probably remain a source of factional
strife.
9. Few, if any, contacts seem to exist between
the emigres and the homeland. Communi-
cations are very precarious and censorship is
rigid. All borders are closely guarded and
patrolled. Rumanian language broadcasts
from the West are jammed; they appear to
be heard best in rural areas. Printed anti-
regime propaganda which has frequently
reached Rumanians is reported to have en-
couraged sporadic manifestations of resist-
ance.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
10. Under cold war conditions, such active re-
sistance as may still exist can be expected to
decline as the regime's security controls im-
prove and as long as there is no clear indica-
tion of positive aid from the West. Neverthe-
less, there may be sporadic, disjointed guer-
rilla-type raids of no more than local signifi-
cance, particularly from the less accessible
parts of Rumania. Passive resistance will
probably also continue in a variety of forms,
chiefly economic sabotage. At best, such ac-
tivities will retard the implementation of the
regime's political and economic program;. at
the least, they will have a nuisance value,
keeping numbers of reliable Communists
from performing more useful work.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
11. In the event of open war, Rumanian se-
curity forces would almost certainly be re-
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inforced by Soviet troops. The resulting in- , and the attitude of the Balkan Pact countries,
tensification of security measures would prob- notably Yugoslavia. There might be some
ably minimize even passive resistance. Never- attempts at defection to Yugoslavia, if that
theless some guerrilla activity might develop. country sided with the West. As Western
The extent of active organized resistance troops approached Rumanian territory, guer-
would depend on the military situation in rilla warfare against local Communists and
Europe, notably the nearness of Western Soviet units might flare up even before West-
forces, the help made available by the West, ern forces actually entered the country.
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ANNEX G: USSR
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. Russia has a long history of resistance, but
the revolution of 1917 was the only successful
act of resistance in modern times resulting
in the overthrow of a government in power.
It occurred only after the war had virtually
destroyed central authority. The new Bol-
shevik leaders were careful to establish securi-
ty controls strong enough to prevent another
popular revolt. Nevertheless, passive resist-
ance continued. It showed great strength
during the 1930's when Stalin was forcing
through collectivization of agriculture. At
the beginning of World War II mass deser-
tions occurred and various national minorities
were willing to collaborate with the Germans
until harsh Nazi policies rebuffed them. The
colossal devastation of World War II resulted
in widespread discontent which necessitated
powerful application of coercive measures.
The most troublesome postwar areas proved
to be those which the USSR had newly an-
nexed : the Baltic States, the western parts
of the Ukraine and Belorussia, and Moldavia.
Partisan movements flourished. in all these
areas, especially in the Baltic States and the
western Ukraine, until mass deportations and
police terror succeeded in subduing them.
The continued strain imposed upon the So-
viet people by Stalin's foreign and economic
policies compelled the Politburo to retain most
of the wartime controls and even to strength-
en some of them. However, by 1949, order
had been restored throughout the country,
and operations against the partisans in the
troubled areas had eliminated nearly all or-
ganized resistance.
2. Many Soviet citizens, largely convinced by
Soviet propaganda of the improvements since
Czarist days, probably feel that their lot has
improved. Moreover, a core of adherents of
Communist ideology are willing to accept pri-
vations in its name. However, there appears
to be some degree of discontent and disaffec-
tion at nearly every level of Soviet society.
This dissidence is not based so much upon op-
position to Communist ideology per se as upon
neglect or denial by the Communist leader-
ship of basic popular rights and needs. Poor
living conditions probably constitute the most
significant cause. The apparent unwillingness
or inability of the Soviet Government to raise
the standard of living is exacerbated by the
knowledge, acquired by millions of Soviet
soldiers during World War II, that things are
better abroad. All-pervading fear of the police
also contributes greatly to dissidence as do
the social stratification, nepotism, and favor-
itism, which divide the ruling elements from
the masses. Finally, antireligious campaigns
and the Russification of the national minori-
ties have created extensive resentment.
DISTRIBUTION OF DISSIDENCE
3. Peasantry. Of all social groups, the peas-
ants have suffered most under Soviet rule.
Their living standard is the lowest, except for
that of the forced laborer. Soviet ruthless-
ness in collectivization and pressure for in-
creased production have provoked strong hos-
tility. The attempts by peasants to recover
their status as individual land owners during
the German occupation demonstrated their
opposition to the collective system. Continued
insufficiency of agricultural production since
the war is probably due in part to lack of
peasant cooperation. The government has
made a number of minor concessions to the
peasants but not enough to stimulate their
cooperation or to overcome their opposition
to collectivism.
4. Youth. A considerable segment of Soviet
youth probably support the Soviet regime.
Generally, they receive special consideration
from the government. Their education and in-
doctrination are carefully supervised. Never-
theless, there are elements among the youth
whose loyalty is open to question. Among
them are: (a) children of parents persecuted
by the regime; (b) descendants of Czarist offi-
cialdom; (c) offspring of kulaks, of purge
victims and of inmates of forced labor camps;
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(d) the young men who have, served in the
armed forces abroad and were able to com-
pare their living standard with the much
higher one outside the USSR; and (e) some
students of higher educational institutions.
There have been persistent reports of anti-
Communist organizations among university
students; such a group was uncovered at the
university of Moscow and allegedly at Kaunas.
Constant admonitions in the Komsomol pa-
pers have denounced youth's flouting of So-
viet taboos.
5. National Minorities. About 45 percent of
the Soviet population consists of national
minorities, some with a distinguished history
of their own. Russification of these minori-
ties under the Tsars had little success. Ini-
tially the Bolsheviks propagandized the con-
stitutional and cultural autonomy of their
component republics and autonomous regions.
After the war, possibly as a result of the poor
showing of loyalty to the Soviet state during
the German occupation by certain minorities,
they sharply restricted cultural autonomy.
Some minorities were liquidated as such by
dispersal of populations, and whatever auton-
omy other minorities still enjoyed was virtu-
ally ended by intensified Russification and
Sovietization. Consequently, disaffection was
rampant. During the first postwar years,
200,000 partisans in the Ukraine and 100,000
in Lithuania reportedly battled Soviet troops.
By 1949, the back of the revolt was broken.
But even now the Ukrainian Party Secretariat
finds it necessary to call publicly for vigilance
against infiltration by Ukrainian partisans.
6. Repressed Elements. The millions of So-
viet citizens who have been sentenced to
forced labor camps and exile in remote Sibe-
rian areas constitute a fairly important re-
sistance potential. During World War II,
many such individuals emerged as leaders of
collaboration in German-occupied territories.
Their hatred of the Soviet regime almost cer-
tainly transcends their patriotic feelings.
Knowing this, the government keeps former
inmates of labor camps under strict controls.
There have been persistent rumors of up-
risings by forced laborers, supposed to have
occurred between 1948 and 1951. In the
summer of 1953, strikes occurred at the
Vorkuta and Norilsk camps in the Far North
of Siberia. While the uprisings, from all ac-
counts, were nonpolitical, they speak for the
desperation of these repressed elements.
7. Intellectuals. In spite of the preferred po-
sition of intellectuals in Soviet society, ideo-
logical controls and restriction of their free-
dom to create have probably led to accumu-.
lated resentment. As a.result, quite a few
intellectuals have withdrawn into themselves,
refused to study Marxism, and turned to in-'
significant fields where Party control is less
pronounced. Except for a few Communist
fanatics, those artists and scientists who find
themselves frustrated by Party ukases telling
them what is correct, appear to be conform-
ing outwardly while inwardly resisting. How-
ever, before a breakdown in Soviet controls
they will almost certainly maintain sufficient
conformity to avoid losing their material ad-
vantages.
8. Industrial Workers. There is frequent evi-
dence of discontent among the mass of fac-
tory workers. The very low living standard,
constant pressure for production under un-
favorable conditions, lack of freedom of move-.
ment, and harsh labor discipline have al-
most certainly caused widespread discontent.
While there has been a slight increase in food
and consumer goods in recent years, it is not
nearly enough to satisfy the workers. More-
over, the promises of increased consumer
goods since Stalin's death, have recently been
de-emphasized.
9. Armed Forces. In general the armed forces
constitute a bulwark of the regime rather
than a threat to it. Over-all morale is con-
sidered to be sufficiently high to insure the
reliability of the armed forces, although there
are many reports of low morale in individual
instances. The officers, especially in the high-
er ranks, are a favored economic group. How-
ever, the Kronstadt mutiny (1921), the purges
in the late 1930's, the low morale of the Red
Army at the beginning of World War II, mass
desertions and the establishment of a resist-
ance army under Vlasov in German-occupied
territory, and the persistant postwar defec-
tions in Germany and Austria have caused the
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Soviet Government to take extraordinary pre-
cautions, including police and Party surveil-
lance, and virtual isolation of troops from
native populations in occupied territories. A
few defections to the West are still occurring.
Harsh discipline, a wide cleavage between offi-
cers and men, inescapable indoctrination and
surveillance by an all-prevading informer sys-
tem create discontent in the service and tend
to decrease the value of its material advan-
tages of clothing, shelter, and food. Morale
in the Soviet Navy and Air Forces appears to
be higher than that in the Army.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
10. Although some dissidence exists at nearly
every level of Soviet society, the regime has
succeeded in establishing such pervasive au-
thority that the people are forced to devote
their energies to coping with the system rather
than to conceiving an alternative solution or
taking steps to achieve such a solution. Ex-
tensive resistance, such as occurred in the
newly acquired, territories after the end of
World War II, had virtually ceased to exist by
1950. The strikes and riots reported in Far
Northern labor camps may not have reflected
political motivation and in any case were
quickly suppressed. , Whether indications of
passive resistance in agriculture, industry,
and the lower bureaucracy are not merely a
demonstration of time-honored Russian in-
difference or apathy cannot be estimated with
any confidence. In sum, the gulf between
dissidence and resistance in the USSR is far
wider than elsewhere in the Bloc (except pos-
sibly in Communist China).
EMIGRE GROUPS
11. Numerous emigre organizations claim to
represent Russians and national minorities.
Of these, the Solidarists (NTS) - Great Rus-
sians-are the largest and most important.
Some former Vlasov adherents and numbers
of recent defectors have joined this move-
ment. Whenever emigre groups are known
by Soviet defectors or by listeners to Russian-
language broadcasts, it is the NTS which ap-
pears to have the pre-eminent place.
12. According to defector reports, there is
little or no awareness among the Soviet people
of the present activities of emigre groups.
Defectors who admit familiarity with these
groups acquired their knowledge in Germany
and Austria. However, there are likely to be
some memories from the war when many
emigre groups, particularly the NTS, were ac-
tive not only in German-occupied Soviet terri-
tory but also among the millions of Russians
deported to Germany for forced labor. More-
over,. the Soviet press itself keeps such mem-
ories alive by occasional attacks on the emigre
movement. During the early postwar years,
there were some contacts between emigre
groups and partisan groups in western areas
of the USSR. Some tenuous connections may
still exist but are almost certainly negligible.
The Soviet security apparatus has pacified
the new Western territories and deported
many of the inhabitants, partially replacing
them with Great Russians. Some slight con-
tacts may still exist between the West and
members of the former Uniate Church in the
Ukraine which was forcibly amalgamated with
the Russian Orthodox Church in the late
1940's.
13. The minority emigre organizations are not
now in a position to gain the sympathy of the
Great Russians to any appreciable extent.
The peoples of the recently incorporated
areas, especially in the Baltic States and the
Western Ukraine, may for a while be inclined
to look to emigre organizations for support.
But in those national minority areas which
have long been under Soviet rule (the Ukraine,
Georgia, Byelo-Russia, etc.), the people would
almost certainly feel, like the Great Russians,
that the emigres have been away from their
homeland so long that they have lost their
grasp of Soviet realities. The people would
also resent what they believe to be the emi-
gres' "luxurious living" in the West and are
still disillusioned over the connection of some
emigre organizations with the Nazi regime.
They probably are unaware of any acceptable
political alternative to Soviet Communism.
On the other hand, the Soviet Government it-
self has given signs of apprehension lest emi-
gre groups be used for infiltration purposes
and has indicated fear of their organization
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and propaganda. This was demonstrated in
the Khokhlov and other cases, where they did
not shrink from elaborately preparing the
murder of an emigre leader. Another aspect
of the effort to neutralize emigre groups is
the Soviet attempt to encourage emigres to
return, promising them good treatment.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
14. Under continued cold war conditions, ac-
tive resistance against the Soviet system is
highly unlikely unless the regime's security
apparatus becomes seriously weakened. Some
degree of passive resistance will probably con-
tinue, ranging from camouflaged disobedience
of Party rules to agricultural and industrial
sabotage. It may also be expressed in cynical
attitudes toward the regime, attempts to
listen to Western broadcasts, lack of interest
in working for the objectives of the govern-
ment, and defection.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
15. In the event of general war security
would be tightened, virtually all people would
be employed in the defense effort, and patri-
otic appeals would be launched. We are un-
able to estimate the extent of or the impact
on resistance potential of such factors as: (a)
Western military action; (b) the popular psy-
chological reactions to such actions; or (c)
the regime's ability to portray the war as a
patriotic and defensive one.
16. In the event of major Soviet reverses,
some mass defections from the army might
occur, particularly among members. of min-
ority groups. If the war were prolonged and
hostilities carried to Soviet soil, chances for
resistance activities would probably improve,
and an invading army might meet with
cautious, but at least partially sympathetic,
response as soon at it became evident that
Nazi methods of occupation would not be re-
peated. In such a situation, anti-Communist
partisans, particularly in the minority areas,
could probably be induced to fight their So-
viet masters. Nevertheless, even if hard
pressed on the military fronts, the Soviet lead-
ers would make a determined effort to main-
tain sufficient control in the hinterland to
prevent resistance elements from becoming
active behind their lines. Moreover, in event
of an impending collapse of the Soviet Gov-
ernment, anti-Soviet elements of the popula-
tion, together with labor camp inmates and
forced exiles, could attain significant resist-
ance capabilities. Aside from such groups,
resistance among the broad masses of the
Great Russian population would be difficult
to organize. Patriotism, indoctrinated respect
for Soviet authority, or apathy probably would
render them passive and disinclined to_ active
opposition. Unless' the security apparatus
were seriously weakened, little activity could
be expected from the mass of the Great
Russian population beyond local harassing
operations, help to Western personnel in es-
cape or evasion, dissemination of antiregime
propaganda, limited intelligence activities,
and defections.
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ANNEX H: NORTH VIETNAM
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. In the past, the main political factors which
have created ill-will toward the Democratic
Republic of Vietnam (DRV) have been: im-
position of rigid ideological controls, restric-
tion of personal freedoms, terroristic. police
controls, persecution of minority and religious
groups, and the rising influence of the un-
popular Chinese. More recently disaffection
has arisen from the transition to peace of a
society long geared to war; the absorption
of new territories (and large cities) which
are increasingly feeling the weight of Com-
munist oppression; and from resentment
against the DRV for having sanctioned, at
least temporarily, the division of the country.
Popular hostility has also been . created by
such economic factors as: (a) heavy tax bur-
dens, which deprive peasants of their surplus
and prevent merchants from accumulating
capital; (b) land reform measures displacing
large numbers of families and creating severe
dislocations; (c) conscription of labor; (d) de-
preciation of the currency; and (e) occasional
acute rice shortages in certain areas. Living
standards in DRV territory have always been
poor but they are now even worse, and there
is little chance for a speedy improvement.
2. Recent DRV measures, including the
Franco-DRV agreement on French installa-
tions in North Vietnam, and the Communist
Chinese-DRV aid agreement may, if imple-
mented, somewhat alleviate the economic
stringency now reportedly prevailing in DRV
territory. Moreover, discontent has been
counterbalanced to some extent by the follow-
ing factors: (a) the prestige accruing to the
regime as the result of its long successful war
against the French; (b) its posture as a strong
cohesive, and determined government; and
(c) the popular appeal of the regime's vigor-
ous nationalism. The regime's identification
of Communism with nationalism is almost
certainly not recognized by the mass of the
people as a Communist tactic, and may con-
tinue for some time to counteract popular
grievances.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
3. The Catholics, numbering some one and
one-half million (of whom, however, at least
500,000 will have left for the south before
May 1955), are probably the largest potential
resistance element in North Vietnam. If the
DRV honors its promise of religious tolerance,
they may resign themselves to passive coop-
eration with the regime. If, however, the re-
gime should decide to take strong measures
against Catholic leaders and organizations,
the Catholics might be provoked into stronger
opposition.
4. Ethnic minorities, numbering about one
and one-half million, oppose domination by
the Vietnamese Communists but their resist-
ance is ineffective. The DRV is now estab-
lishing "autonomous administrative areas"
for larger ethnic minorities under Communist
control, such as the one million Thai tribes-
men; the same policy may also be applied to
the Nungs, Muongs, Meos, Mans, and Thos.
The resistance potential of these tribes is low,
since they have no cohesion, leadership, or
unity of purpose.
5. The peasants will almost certainly remain
dissatisfied unless the regime can alleviate
their grievances. However, no more than
passive resistance can be expected so long as
the regime exercises pervasive political and
police controls.
6. The dispossessed elements, among whom
can be counted non-Communist Chinese, rem-
nants of non-Communist political groups,
merchants, and landlords, are, of course,
highly disaffected and, given an opportunity,
would participate in resistance activities. In
view of the regime's very tight security con-
trols, however, these elements will almost cer-
tainly be gradually liquidated.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
7. Incomplete information, paucity of intelli-
gence sources, and the fluidity of the present
situation virtually preclude an accurate esti-
mate of the character and intensity of re-
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sistance within DRV territory. Prior to the
Geneva agreement there were indications of
an anti-Viet Minh potential caused chiefly
by Communist terrorism and persecution, and
by fear of rising Chinese influence. Continued
dissatisfaction with the regime is indicated by
the flight of large numbers of civilian refugees
from the DRV zone.' At the same time, the
migration of these anti-Communist elements
from North Vietnam has almost certainly
weakened the resistance potential there as
has the French withdrawal, and the increase
of Viet Minh power and prestige since Geneva.
Moreover, the regime's identification of Com-
munism with nationalism, may continue at
least for some time to distract attention from
grievances. The anticolonial attitude on the
part of the ethnic Vietnamese will continue to
be used by the regime to popularize its actions.
However, some degree of continued passive re-
sistance may be expected from Vietnamese
Catholics and from nonethnic minorities.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
8. Such organized resistance groups as may
still exist are poorly equipped and poorly
trained. The current capabilities of such
groups are probably limited to development
of escape and evasion facilities, some training
activities, and information collection. Unor-
ganized resistance probably is limited to inter-
mittent passive opposition. Expansion and
intensification of resistance activities would
be largely dependent upon logistic support
and training of personnel in the use of equip-
ment. Lack of coordination, caused chiefly
by the mutual animosity of the various ethnic
minorities, further reduces the already limited
manpower available for guerrilla activities.
The regime can be expected to use all methods
at its disposal to reduce disaffection and liqui-
date vestiges of resistance. Even a weaken-
ing of security measures would probably not
bring forth an appreciable resistance poten-
tial.
1 About 700,000 people elected to leave the North
between August 1954 and March 1955.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
9. Any estimate of the resistance potential in
the DRV under conditions of open warfare is
highly speculative. Resistance would depend
on the ability to,survive countermeasures, the
extent to which security controls would be
disrupted by military operations, and the
amount of training and material aid that
could be provided. Assuming that guerrillas
were moderately successful in surviving and
training with new equipment, at least some
groups, such as the Thos and possibly the
Nungs, and Mans, would be in a position to
disrupt movements of overland supply col-
umns along the routes from China into
North Vietnam. However, the reluctance of
most guerrilla groups to move any consider-
able distance from their tribal areas would
limit their effectiveness. No cohesive and
large-scale guerrilla activities can be expected,
and existing groups would be unable to gain
such control over large territorial areas in
northern Tonkin as the Viet Minh did be-
tween 1943 and 1954. It, is possible that some
resistance elements could be utilized to spread
rumors, distribute pamphlets', and collect in-
formation. However, willingness of resistance
groups to act against the DRV regime would
be contingent upon the military situation.
10. The nationality of attacking forces would
probably influence the willingness of resist-
ance groups to act. Tribal groups which have
been helped by the French for many years,
would be most receptive to French invaders.
Vietnamese would prefer other Vietnamese
first and the French last. Other nationalities
probably acceptable would be Thais, Filipinos,
and Americans. Participation of Nationalist
Chinese might seriously jeopardize resistance
and create antagonism toward the occupa-
tion. A military government administered by
Vietnamese in ethnic Vietnamese areas would
probably have a salutary effect upon resist-
ance activities. A French occupation would
be distrusted by the majority of the Viet-
namese people, and would adversely affect
anti-Communist partisan warfare.
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ANNEX I: NORTH KOREA
BASIC CAUSES OF DISSIDENCE
1. After decades of Japanese domination,
which had aimed to wipe out Korea as a na-
tional entity and to make it a Japanese pro-
vince, the Koreans were receptive to any type
of government, provided it was Korean. Thus,
it is not so much the form of government in-
stituted in North Korea after World War II
as the exploitative and oppressive methods
and foreign flavor of the Communist regime
which have created discontent. The extra-
ordinary hardships which the North Koreans
had to endure during the Korean War prob-
ably increased dissatisfaction and frustration.
Moreover, the burdens imposed by postwar re-
construction (such as high taxes, forced labor,
pressures to turn farmers into industrial la-
borers, contributions to political organiza-
tions, military conscription, and over-all
shortages) have almost certainly intensified
dissidence. The continued presence of large
Chinese Communist forces in North Korea is
probably also an important source of dissi-
dence.
2. Although the North Koreans have very
little access to information on developments
in the ROK, the very existence of the Republic
of Korea (ROK) as a visible alternative to the
North Korean Communist regime and the de-.
sire for unification probably stimulate North
Korean dissidence. In spite of the North
Korean campaign of vilification against the
ROK and the questionable popularity of the
Rhee government, there is almost certainly a
belief that conditions in South Korea are more
satisfactory than in North Korea. Dissidence
would probably grow if the advantages of
living in the UN-backed ROK instead of So-
viet-Chinese supported North Korea became
more apparent.
MAJOR DISSIDENT ELEMENTS
3. Dissidence exists in varying degrees in
every element of North Korean society, except
the small Communist ruling group. It is par-
ticularly intense among the remnants of the
Christian and former middle class elements.
These constituted the main strength of the
Korean Democratic Party which was estab-
lished after liberation from Japan and sub-
sequently liquidated in North Korea by the
Communists. Considerable dissatisfaction al-
so exists among the peasants, who feel that
the regime is giving preferential treatment
to industrial workers. There is disappoint-
ment and disillusionment even among the
workers. Army morale probably is at least
fair. Dissidence is probably most widespread
in the enlisted ranks, which have been kept in
service many years. Although there are in-
dications of a discharge program, it probably
does not provide for many early releases.
Dissidence also extends to a small number of
officers.
INTENSITY OF RESISTANCE
4. Even though the regime's methods and pol-
icies have caused considerable ill-will, there is
no evidence that such disaffection is trans-
lated into resistance, probably because of the
Korean tendency toward apathetic resigna-
tion and by identification of the regime with
nationalist aspirations. Antiregime guerrilla
activities, such as occurred earlier in the Ko-
rean War had declined greatly by 1951. Since
then, heavy punishment for UN collaborators,
nationalist propaganda, severe political con-
trol, and stimulation of "anticolonialism"
have been used to combat resistance activi-
ties. There is no indication that the ROK
aid to active North Korean resisters has been
effective.
EMIGRE ORGANZIATIONS
6. After the establishment of a Communist
regime in North Korea, anti-Communist ele-
ments fled south. One sizeable group formed
a northwestern Young Men's Association,
which was absorbed by the ROK "Taehan
Youth Corps" until it was assimilated into
the South'.Korean Armed Forces. - Many of
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this group were either Christians or followers
of the Chondokyo Church (an indigenous
church strong in the northwestern areas of
Korea). These two groups had a background
of active resistance against the Japanese.
Many thousands of their number were used
as guerrilla forces by the UN Command dur-
ing the Korean War. Several smaller groups,
cultural and political emigres, chief among
which are the remnants of the Korean Demo-
cratic Party, led resistance against the Com-
munists prior to the outbreak of the war.
There are no current indications of guidance
or assistance to resistance elements in North
Korea except that given by the ROK itself,
nor is there adequate information on the con-
tacts, if any, made by the ROK.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER COLD WAR
CONDITIONS
7. Assuming continuation of the armistice,
resistance in North Korea is unlikely to be of
much significance. At best, it may provide
a limited source of intelligence. The security
forces and the army are capable of dealing
with any opposition, whether from disgruntled
peasants, Christian elements, or survivors of
the domestic purges. Even though the topo-
graphy of the country, the vulnerability of
the North Korean transportation system, and
the homogeneity of the Korean people (which
facilitates ROK infiltration) would favor guer-
rilla activities, the regime is considered capa-
ble of coping with them. It would have the
support of nearby Soviet and Communist Chi-
nese forces if it could not carry out the task
alone.
RESISTANCE POTENTIAL UNDER WARTIME
CONDITIONS
8. Under conditions of open war, North Ko-
rean resistance potential would probably in-
crease somewhat but would probably be
limited to isolated instances of sabotage, some
passive resistance and defections, assistance
to anti-Communist personnel in evasion and
escape operations, and some intelligence col-
lection. Increased security measures and sup-
port by the USSR and Communist China
would make organized resistance virtually im-
possible. In the event of a Bloc defeat or a
major retreat of the Communist forces in Ko-
rea, the populace still behind Communist lines
might be encouraged to resist their oppres-
sors. While such resistance would be an ad-
ditional burden on the Communists, it is un-
likely to be a decisive factor.
9. The responsibility for initiation of hostili-
ties would not significantly affect resistance
potential. The nationality of any allied forces
invading North Korea also would not matter
provided that no Japanese forces were em-
ployed. Unless political conditions in the
ROK deteriorate sharply, the ROK would have
no difficulty in establishing governmental in-
stitutions in North Korea which would have
the initial support or acquiescence of the bulk
of the population.
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