TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OVER-ALL COST STUDY OF SOVIET MILITARY EFFORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A005000010024-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: September 3, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

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CO TIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3 September 1955
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans (01R)
Colonel H. J. Lemley, Jr., USA (G-2)
Captain B. E. Wiggin, USN (ONI)
Colonel Willis D. Sawyer, USAF (AFOIN-2132)
Colonel John E. Leary, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT : Terms of Reference for Over-all Cost Study
of Soviet Military Effort
1. The IAC Representatives have approved the attached Terms
of Reference, which should be considered as partial terms of
reference for the next over-all Soviet estimate. The actual, cost
study will be carried out by 0/RR under the supervision of an ad
hoc committee which will (a) act as a steering committee to deal
with any problems arising in the course of the study; (b) serve
as a liaison channel between 0/RR and their auencies; and (c)
review and informally coordinate each phase of the study.
The tentative list of agency representatives is as follows:
JIG -- Capt. Ralph Metcalfe
John Easton (alternate)
NO Cs
^ DE
CLASS
NEXT R
AUTH:
DATE:1
STAT
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CONFIDENTIAL
Lt. Col. Delaney
Navy - Cdr. 0. P. Hughlett
Mr. Dennett Davis (alternate)
USAF - John Allums
John C. McClelland (alternate)
2. Geographic Coverage. The initial study will be Bloc-wide
in scope because of the necessity of handling the intra-Bloc transfer
problem. However, the final contribution to the next Soviet NIE will
be limited to the USSR if desired, and the other Floc portions would
then be available (as a useful byproduct) to support our 1956 estimates
on the European Satellites and Communist China.
3. Timing. The costing study should be completed in time to
contribute to the next over-all Soviet NIE, now tentatively scheduled
for 1 June 1956. To meet this deadline the following schedule was
accepted:
Complete 0/RR draft of Phase One - 1 January 1956
Complete Ad Hoc Representatives Review of Phase One ?
1 February 1956
Complete 0/1.R draft of Phase Two - 15 March 1956
Complete Ad Hoc Representatives Review of Study -
1 April 1956.
PAUL A. BOREL
Acting Assistant Director
National Estimates
CONHDENTAL
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CON 6TIAL
C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A GE N C Y
3 September 1955
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR ODSTING STUDY OF ESTIMATED BLOC
MILITARY PRO( AMS 1956-1961 (PARTIAL TMES OF REFERENCE
FOR 1956 OVER-ALL SOVIET NIE)
To prepare an over-all systematic costing of estimated past
and projected Soviet military programs 1946-1961, with a view to
improving our estimates of: (a) Bloc military expenditures; (b)
future Soviet military programs; (c) Soviet economic capabilities
to meet these prog-,rams; and (d) the impact of such programs on
Soviet economic growth.
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QVW
Historical Analysis of Defense Outlays, 1946-1955
I. MILITARY PROGRAI`E AND PRODUCTION 1946-1955.
(To be assembled from published intellience, filling in gap
only where necessary.)
A. Historical composition of major components of the Sine-Soviet
Bloc military forces, including order-of-battle by year through the
period (by country and military service).
B. Production of major items of equipment and items essential
to the support of Bloc military programs for the period.
C.. Organization of the Sine-Soviet Bloc military ,forces.
Relation of Satellite and Chinese Communist forces to those of the
USSR.
D. Status of Bloc military base facilities during the period.
CO FIDE N` AL
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11. ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT THE MILITARY PInGRAM
A. The initial costs and annual operating costs of the weapons
and weapon systems for Bloc military pro ;rams. Price data should be
provided for as many of the major items of equipment as possible.
(The various demands should be accumulated in categories reflecting
sectors of origin.)
B. Rates of utilization for equipment, weapon systems, facilities,
and the efficiency of maintenance and training.
C. Logistic requirements for various weapon systems utilized
by the military forces during the period.
D. Economic requirements for the research and development and
investment programs necessary to support the military program of the
Bloc.
E. Types of support units necessary for the operation of the
military programs.
Cog JD~N%L
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III. MILITARY ASSISTANCE PROGIRIMS AND INVENTORIES
A. Nature and extent of military assistance programs between
members of the Bloc.
B. Composition and quantity of military stocks during the
period.
IV. SUM'IARY
(To be an integrated statement of historical Sino-Soviet military
expenditures and relation of these expenditures to other historical
a`gre,ative series.)
PHASE TWO
Estimate of Bloc Defense Costs., 1956-1963
(Detailed terms of reference for PHASE TWO will be issued when
PHASE ONE is completed., so that we can draw on.the experience of the
first phase. The following is merely an outline.)
CONFIDENTIAL
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I. ESTIMATED MILITARY PROG;AN15
In order to permit going ahead with the study, these pro ams
should be assembled from existing estimates such as NIE 11-3-55 and
NIE 11.5-55 which go to 1960, with any major gaps filled in by the
services to the extent feasible. The projections for 1961 will have
to wait until appropriate estimates for the next Soviet NIE are
available (0/NE proposes to ask for these by 1 March to permit
completion of the cost study by 1 April).
II. ECONOMIC REQUII-MENTS TO SUPFORT MILITARY PROGRA16
A. Initial Outlays
D. Annual Operating Ex_,enses
C. Military Hard Goods Procurement
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONF1DENTfL
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III, ECONOMIC CAPABILITIES TO SUPPORT ABOVE 1W GRAMS
A. Over-all
D. Key Bottleneck Areas (if any)
IV, SUMMARY
N.B. The analysis of the implications of the above costing sutyd in
terms of its impact on: (a) probable military expenditures; (b)
probable military programs; and (c) probable rates of economic growth
will not be a part of the costin? study proper because it involves
consideration of a broader ranee of factors than those covered in the
costing study above. This analysis should be done subsequently as
part of the regular NIE process.
CONFIDENTIAL
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