NIE 11-5-55: BLOC AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES, 1955-1960.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A005100010002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 10, 1955
• Content Type: NIE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/09: CIA-RDP79R01012AO05100010002-4
IULI I trll.
10 June 1955
MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant Director for National Estimates
SUBJECT NIE 11-5-55: Bloc Air Defense Capabilities;
1955-1960.
1. The EIC Ad-Hoc Working Group on N.IE 11-5-55 submits
the attached as a first approximation of a contribution to Step
Three, Terms of Reference, subject. as above, dated 24 November
1954. This contribution has been coordinated by committee mem-
bers from Air Force, Army, Navy, and CIA and the material on
electronics was based on a contribution from the EIC Subcommittee
on Electronics and Telecommunications. However, this contribu-
tion does not necessarily represent the official view of all of
the represented agencies..
2. This contribution is considered a first approximation
because it is based on estimates made by the Step Two Committee
which, in the opinion of the members of this EIC Ad Hoc Working
Group, are now outdated and unrealistic. Specifically, it ap-
pears that fighter aircraft which were not expected until one
or two years from now are currently in operation in the USSR."
.The Step Three Committee also considers it unrealistic that the
Soviets will introduce in large numbers four new all-weather
fighters into their air defense system by 1960. The economics
of the problem leads the committee to conclude that it is more
likely that only two all-weather fighters may be introduced dur-
ing the period of this estimate. This opinion is based on the
conclusion reached in the attached draft for Step Three, that
"Certain portions of the program postulated by Step Two, such
as aircraft and guided missiles, could be fulfilled on the re-
quired.scale within the period of this estimate only if the
capability of the Soviet Bloc electronic equipment industry
were expanded to a far greater extent than is currently estimated."
3. If the number of new types of aircraft estimated to be
introduced is reduced, the aggregate cost of the fighter air
craft program might be reduced significantly over the period of
this estimate.
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ^
p DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:_ TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 10.2
IDATE.PnIAX911 REVIEWER:_0i8557
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/09: CIA-RDP79RO1012AO05100010002-4 J
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/09: CIA-RDP79R01012AO05100010002-4
? CONFIDENIML w
4. Until Step Two is reworked in light of the new informa-
tion and the tentative economic conclusions in the attached con-
tribution, the EIC Ad Hoc Working Group cannot prepare a final
Step'Three contribution. In light of these remarks the Step Two
contribution and the attached Step Threee contribution based on
it can be viewed only as highly tentative.
EIC Ad Hoc Working Group
on NIE 11-5-55
CONFIDENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/09: CIA-RDP79R01012AO05100010002-4