NIE 11-8-55: THE IMPLICATIONS OF AN AUSTRIAN TREATY FOR THE POLICIES OF THE USSR AND CERTAIN OTHER STATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A005300010026-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: April 23, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/22 : CIA-RDP79R01012A005300010026-6
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CENTRAL? INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
23 April 1955
PEAORANDUM FOR: 71r, Allan Evans (OIR)
Colonel Paul S. Reinecke, USA (G-2)
Captain B. E. Wiggin,. USN (ONI)
Colonel Willis B. Salyer, USAF ?(AFOIN-2B2)
Colonel Floyd E. Dunn, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT. NIE 11-8-55: The Implications of an Austrian
Treaty for the Policies of the
USSR and Certain Other States
1. Attached are terms of reference for the prospective Austrian
Treaty estimate requested by the Department of State and discussed
briefly at the luncheon of the IAC Senior Representatives on 20 April.
2. The IAC target date for the estimate is 17 May. It is
therefore very desirable if not necessary to shortcut our usual
procedure.
3. "e suggest that we not meet on these terms of reference, but
that those agencies that can do so Pre-,are brief contributions based
thereon. If you consider that additional points should be raised,
please include these in your contribution, or pass them by telephone
to Hr.' Matthew Gallagher (Code 143, Extension 3426).
4. All contributions should be in ONE by Monday 2 May,
-;)
?
PAUL A. BOREL
? Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
Distribution "B"
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. t
DECLASSFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATOAIMAY %, REVIEWER: 140&,1351
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?N._)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
23 April 1955
SUBJECT: TERYS OF REFERENCE: NIE 11-P-55: THE IMPLICATIONS OF
AN AUSTRIAN TREATY FOR THE POLICIES OF THE USSR AND
CERTAIN ?TIER STATES
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the implications of an Austrian treaty settlement
for the policies of the USSR and certain other states.
ASSUMPTION
That the USSR will sign an Austrian Treaty on the basis of the
existing draft, together with modifications agreed with Austria in
the Moscow Communique of 15 April without:
a. Insisting upon "neutralization" ip the form of an agree-
ment of the Four Powers authorizing unilateral intervention
against violations of Austrian neutrality, or
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b. Demanding guarantees against Anschluss in such a form as
in effect, to prevent implementation of the Paris Agreements.
QUESTIONS TEARING ON THE PROBLEM
I. THE ROLE OF AUSTRIA IN SOVIET POST?WAR POLICY
A. What has been the role Of Austria in Soviet post?war
policy? (Contributions should include a brief historical
summary of thetrends in Soviet policy toward Austria
since the war, and an analysis of the objectives which
Soviet policy has pursued in connection with the Austrian
problem.)
B. What political, economic and military advantages has the
USSR derived in Austria from its occupation of eastern
Austria and from the Four Power control of Austria as a
whole? What advantages elsewhere in Europe?
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II.FACTORS MOTIVATING THE SOVIET DECISION TO SIGN THE AUSTRIAN
TREATY
A. To what extent do the new Soviet terms for conclusion of
an Austrian treaty represent concessions from earlier
positions?
B. What factors, internal to the -Soviet Bloc as well as on
the international level, have caused the USSR to change
its policy toward Austria?
C. In the light of these factors, what is the present Soviet
estimate of the relative advantages and disadvantages of
an Austrian state treaty? (Contributions should include
the probable Soviet assessment of the costs and compensa-
tions of an Austrian treaty in political, economic, and
military terms.)
III. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE SOVIET poLIcy
A. What are the implications for the future course of Soviet
policy with respect to: ,
1. Desire to reduce international tensions?
2. Objectives in Germany?
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3. Control of the Satellites?
4. Relations with Yugoslavia?
5. Such other issues as Formosa Indo-China, and Korea;
disarmament and nuclear weapon control?
IV. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 'P OL I C TES OF OTHER STATES
A. What will be the effect of an Austrian settlemtnt upon
the non-Communist worlds assessment of Soviet intentions?
Upon the policies of the NATO countries? Upon the
policies Of the rest of the non-Communist world?
B, In particular, what will be the effect uron West German
attitudes toward rearmament and unification? _Upon the
policies of the West German government?
4
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