NIE 12.5-55: CURRENT SITUATION AND PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN HUNGARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A005400040028-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 21, 2013
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: January 11, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
11 January 1955
P i0RANDUM FOR: Mr, Allan Evans (OIR)
Colonel Paul S. Reinecke, USA (G-2)
Captain B. E. Wiggin, USN (ONI)
Colonel Willis B. Sawyer, USAF (AFOIN-02)
Colonel Floyd E. Dunn, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT : NIE 12..5-55- Current' Situation and Prebable
Developments in Hungary
1, The attached terms of reference, indicating the allo-
cations of production responsibility, were agreed on at the
meeting of the IAC representatives on 10 Januarys
2. It is requested that contributions be received in this
office by the close of business on Tuesday, 1 February.
PAUL A. BOREL
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
AUTH:
DATE________ ", 1 1 REVIEWERV
CLASS. CHANGED TO: S
N XT REVIEW DA I
NO CHANGE IN t,l
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SECRET
C E N T R A L I`N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
11 January 1955
SUBJECT: TERMS CF REFERENCE:- NIE 12.5-55: -CURRENT SITUATION AND
PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS. IN HUNGARY
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the present situation in Hungary, and the probable
developments there through mid-1956.
QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
OIR I. SOVIET POLICY
A. Has Soviet policy toward Hungary since Stalin's death differed
significantly from that toward other Satellites? In purpose,
nature, timing? If so, how? In other phases, e.g., post-
World War II, Korean War periods, did Soviet policy toward
Hungary differ substantially from that toward other Satellites?
If so, how? And, for what reasons?
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B. What is the probable development of Soviet policy toward
Hungary during the period of this estimate, and how is it
likely to differ from Soviet policy toward the other
Satellites?
II. TRENDS AND CURRENT' SITUATION IN HUNGARY
OIR A. General
What are the origins and lines of development of the Hungarian
people, ethnically, socially, culturally, and in what way has
Hungarian national development differed from that of the other
Satellites? How are these characteristics influencing the
present situation in Hungary? How do these characteristics
influence the Hungarian peoples' attitudes toward the Commu-
nist Party, the government, the leaders? Toward the USSR?
Toward other Satellites, Western Europe, and toward the West
generally? In what ways may any of the foregoing influence
the intensity and duration of the Hungarian regime's current
difficulties?
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OIR B. Political
1. What are the major political difficulties confronting
the present Hungarian leadership? Do they stem from
conflicts of policy within the Party leadership, be-
tween the leadership and the ranks? Is there conflict
between the Party and Government bureaus? How much of
the present difficultiesof'the Hungarian regime stem
merely from administrative confusion? How much from
differences over idiological interpretations?
2. What are the regime's primary problems with respect to
Hungarian popular attitudes? What is the relative im-
portance of the public's attitudes in the current
Hungarian situation? What measures has the regime taken
to mollify public feeling? Degree of success of these
measures? What are the present trends in public atti-
tudes, and what alternatives remain to the regime for
dealing with these trends?
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3. What evidence do we have of passive on active' re-
sistance? Is there any evidence of sabotage, organized
resistance, widespread disregard for the law? What is
the potential for resistance -- under cold war conditions,
in case of general war? In what ways might popular dis-
satisfaction be expressed in the future? Is there any chance for
the overthrow of the Corunurist regime from within? If not, what
influence will public atitudes have in future policies and action
of the regime? In future developments in Hungary?
ORR
OIR
G-2
C. Economic
1. What are the critical factors affecting Hungary's eco-
nomic development, e.g., availability of natural resources,
ralationships between the various economic sectors, Bloc
requirements and support?
2. How do present levels of economic output by various
sectors and per capita consumption levels compare with
the prewar period? Goals and achievement under first
three-year plan(1947-1949)? Goals and achievement under
the Five-Year Plan (1940-1954)?
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3. What factors contributed to the decision to alter the
direction and goals of the Hungarian economy in the
middle of 1953? Soviet policy? Limitations of basic
resources? Popular attitudes? Foreign trade require-
ments? Agricultural production problems? Technical
manpower? Managerial skill? Planning experience?
Political or ideological problems?
4. What progress is being made in changing the direction
and in achieving the new economic goals? In gaining
popular support? In shifting labor from one industry
(sector) to another? In the production of new kinds
of goods and in altering imports to meet the new mate-
rials needs of the economy?
5. What are the primary factors which will limit the future
development of the Hungarian economy? Soviet policy?
Natural resources? Technical manpower? Managerial
skill? Planning judgment? Internal popular attitudes?
Foreign trade? Industrial plant? Investment?
6. What is the extent of Hungarian production of military
end items -.- for itself, for the Soviet Bloc?
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SECRET
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DEF D. Military
1. What is the strength, combat effectiveness, state of
morale and reliability of the Hungarian military forces?
What is the burden of the present scale of Hungarian de-
fense effort for the economy?
2. What is the organization, strength, scope of authority,
reliability, and general readiness of the Hungarian in-
ternal security forces exclusive of the military establish-
ment ?
3. What is the strength, disposition, state of morale,
and general readiness of the Soviet military forces
stationed in Hungary?
4+. What is the capability of the total security forces in
Hungary in terms of maintaining order, suppressing re-
bellion? How dependent are the Hungarian security forces
on the presence of Soviet troops?
5. What is the degree of coordination and cooperation be-
tween Hungarian military forces and those of the Satel-
lites and the USSR?
-6-
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OP a
OIR III. PROBABLE DE'-ELOPMENTS
DEF
`ORR
A. What are the principal problems which will confront the USSR
in maintaining its control in Hungary during the period of
this estimate and how effectively will Soviet policy meet
them?
B. What are the prospects for the stability and political
effectiveness of the Hungarian regime?
C. What is the probable development of Hungary's relations with
other Bloc states and with Yugoslavia?
D. What are the prospects for the Hungarian economy? In. total
production? In production of military end items? In con-
sumer goods production? In meeting export needs? In ob-
taining needed imports? In internal financing? In investment?
E. What forms will popular resistance take in the future, and
how will it affect the policies of the regime?
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F. What will be the probable effects of German rearmament on
Hungarian developments in any of the foregoing respects?
What will probably be the extent and nature of Hungarian
participation in any East European military organization?
What other external developments might significantly affect
the situation in Hungary?
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