NIE 74-57: THE OUTLOOK FOR GHANA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A010200020017-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2014
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: September 5, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE A.GENCY
5 September 1957
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans, State (OIR)
Colonel E. T. Seaburr, USA (ACSI)
Captain W. S, Howell.. USN (ONI)
Colonel W. B. Sawyer, USAF (AMIN 2B2)
Colonel Jv N. Pittman, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT: NIE 74..57: THE OUTLOOK FOR GHAM
1. The attached terms of reference were agreed on at
the meeting of the IAC representatives on 5 September.
2. All agencies are invited to contribute to any section
within their competence to do so.
3, It is requested that contributions be received in this
office by the close of business on 28 October.
Distribution IT"
it 1 A
?( alt0
WILLIAM P. BUNDY
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
5 September 1957
SUBJECT: TERMS CF REFERENCE: VIE 74-57: THE OUTLOOK FCR GHANA*
TEE PROBLEM
To estimate Ghana's psospects for political stability and economic
progress, and its probable orientation and policies over the next
few years.
SCOPE
We suggest that this NIE parallel recent estimates on Tunisia and
Morocco in terms of scope and format, and in concentrating on develop-
ments over the next two years, but making longer-range estimates when-
ever possible. While a relatively brief paper is envisaged, some
This estimate will supersede the paragraphs on the Gold Coast in
NIE 72-56: "Conditions and Trends in Tropical Africa," published
14 August 1956.
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basic country data should be included in the first NIE which gives
the area more than minimum coverage. Particular attention should be
'paid to: the future of the present political leadership, the outlook
for development of the economy, relations with neighboring regions
and other emerging African states: and Ghana's attitudes toward the
Soviet Bloc and the major Western couhtries.
QUESTIONS DEARING ON THE PROBLEM
I. INTRODUCTION
Discuss briefly the major events accompanying the Gaining of
? independence which are lilelyto influence future developments in Ghana.
Describe those factors -- racidl: religious, tribal, geographic, etc.,
-- which contribute to or detract from the unity of the area.
THE POLITICAL SITUATION AND TRENDS
A. What are the current nature and composition of Ghana's govern-
ment? What are its present policies? Haw effective are they?
What are the aims, character, and position of Premier
Nkrumah and the Convention People's Party (CPP)? Haw
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homogeneous is the CPP? Who are Nkrumahts Present
rivals and possible successors? What are the degrees
and effects of inefficiency and the corruption of the
government? To what extent do government operations
depend on "expatriates"?
D. Describe Mans's other major political, tribal, social,
and regional groupings. To what extent are these groups
in opPosition to the present regime? Who are the present
and likely future leaders of any such opposition? What
are the connections and relations between the government
and the labor unions? What is the strength of the local
Communists? What influence do they have on the labor unions?
On the government?
C. What are the likely composition and domestic policies of
the Ghana goverment over the next few years? What are
its likely policies regarding minorities and regional
problems such as the Ewe in Togoland? What are the prospects
for Nkrunah remaining in power during this period? What is
the likelihood that the government will have increasing recourse
to authoritarian measures? What is the likelihood of serious
civil strife?
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,111. What are the government's capabilities for maintaining internal
security? What is the present composition Of military and
police forces? What are their policies and likely future
programs? Discuss other military facilities available,
including airfields. What are the prospects that airfields
would be made available to the West in the event of war?
III. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
A. What is the present status of Ghana's economic and financial
development? What are the government's economic and
fiscal policies? What natural resources are available?
Are being exploited? By whom? What is the foreign trade
pattern? What is the outlook for agricultural exports,
especially of cocoa? What are present economic development
plans? What is the outlook for the Volta river project?
D. What are the prospects for economic growth? For diversifica-
tion of the economy? What is the extent of Ghana's current
and future reliance on external aid? What is the government's
attitude toward foreign capital? What,are Ghana's prospects
for obtaining adequate aststance from the UK? To what
degree is Ghana likely to seek aid from other external sources,
including the US and the Soviet Bloc?
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IV. FOREIGN POLICIES
A. What is the general approach of the ruling group toward problems
of foreign relations?
D. Toward Black Africa? What are Ghana's probable future relations
with its close neighbors? Is Ghana likely to adopt a policy
of forming-and leading a federation of West African states?
Is such a development likely in the short term? What are the
chances of Ghana choosing instead a policy of territorial
aggrandizement? With what consequences? To what extent is
Ghana likely to promote nationalism elsewhere in Africa?
What would be the repercussions of such an effort in other
African states, including possible rivals for influence on the
continent?
C. What are Ghana's likely relations with the Arab states and India,
with the Bandung group and Israel?
D. Toward the UK? Are Ghana's relations with the UK likely
to remain on a mutually satisfactory basis? Is Ghana likely
to continue West African defense arrangements, to try to expand
them into a regional pact, or to drop them altogether?
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Is Ghana likely to tighten or loosen its ties with the UK
and the Commonwealth? To what extent will such ties
depend on the levels of British assistance?
E. Toward Other World Powers? Under what circumstances is
Ghana likely to seek substantial aid from the US? From
the Bloc? What is the likelihood that Chana will attempt
to play one source against the other? Would accettance,
of aid necessarily promote closer political and policy
alignment with either the Bloc or the West? Is Ghana
more likely to try to hold aloof from the East-West conflict
and develop its policies in a wholly African context?
V. LONGERTERM PROSPECTS
In the light of the above factors, discuss briefly prospects'
for the stability and viability of Ghana, and its future role in
African and international affairs.
VI, PCONMORTENI ON.NIE 74-57
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