VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 10-55: ANTI-COMMUNIST RESISTANCE POTENTIAL IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC, PUBLISHED 12 APRIL 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A010700020005-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2013
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 7, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/12/20: CIA-RDP79R01012A010700020005-8
IAC-D-100/60
7 March 1958
%INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTE
Validity Study of ME 10-55:
Anti-Communist Resistance Potential in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
published 12 April 1955
The attached validity study of ME 10-55 was noted by the
IAC on 4 March 1958 (IAC-M-331, item 9 c.
JOHN HEIRES
Secretary
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/12/20: CIA-RDP79R01012A010700020005-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/12/20: CIA-RDP79R01012A010700020005-8
IAC-D-100/60
7 March 1958
\IA 11. a
Validity Study of ME 10-55:
Anti-Communist Resistance Potential in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
published 12 April 1955
1. The appraisal of the scope and intensity of Bloc dissidence
in the general estimate (the country annexes are not covered in this
validity study) still appears to have been generally sound. The esti-
mate was correct in pointing to a prior weakening of the security
apparatus or a decrease in Sino-Soviet prestige and power as necessary
preconditions for the transformation of dissidence into active re-
sistance. Because these things in fact happened after the 20th Party
Congress in 1956, resistance activities did develop in many areas,
most conspicuously on a mass scale in Hungary.
2. However, the developments in Poland and Hungary did
invalidate the judgment in ME 10-55 that there was "no prospect
of resistance activities developing on a scale sufficient to threaten
the stability of the regimes." Nor did the estimate anticipate that
various Bloc regimes might adopt liberalizing policies which in turn
permitted the emergence of new and more subtle forms of resistance
activity.
3. The paragraphs relating to resistance potential in time of
war cannot be subjected to a test of validity, but their judgments
have been largely reaffirmed in the successor estimate, except for
an attempt to take into consideration the effects of the use of nuclear
weapons.
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/12/20: CIA-RDP79R01012A010700020005-8