THE OUTLOOK FOR NEPAL, BHUTAN, AND SIKKIM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 30
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 24, 1959
• Content Type: NIE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
NIE 55-59
24 November 1959
5 6 8 4
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE/\
NUMBER 55-59
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEPAL,
BHUTAN, AND SIKKIM
Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence
Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Depart-
ments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and
The Joint Staff.
Concurred in by the
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
on 24 November 1959. Concurring were the Director of Intelli-
gence and Research, Department of State; the Assistant
Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the
Assistant Chief of Naval Operations for Intelligence, Depart-
ment of the Navy; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence,
USAF; the Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff; the As-
sistant to the Secretary of Defense, Special Operations; and
the Director of the National Security Agency. The Atomic
Energy Commission Representative to the USIB, and the As-
sistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained,
the subject being outside of their jurisdiction.
DOCUMENT NO. 1
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. I
"e,,DECLASSIFIED
LASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTFI: HR 70-2
OM TO Pr7 DAT REVIEWER: ___G,14
N9 327
3f1B-473-Bilea..bu1. /V/
07C1
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A0141000:30001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DISSEMINATION NOTICE
? 1. This estimate was disseminated by the Central Intelligence Agency. This copy
is for the information and use of the recipient and of persons under his jurisdiction on
a need to know basis. Additional essential dissemination may be authorized by the
following officials within their respective departments.
a. Director of Intelligence and Research, for the Department of State
b. Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
c. Assistant Chief of Naval Operations for Intelligence, for the Department of
the Navy
d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force
e. Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff
f. Director of Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Commission
g. Assistant Director, FBI, for the Federal Bureau of Investigation
h. Assistant to the Secretary of Defense, Special Operations, for the Department
of Defense
i. Director of NSA for the National Security Agency
j. Assistant Director for Central Reference, CIA, for any other Department or
Agency
2. This copy may be retained, or destroyed by burning in accordance with applicable
security regulations, or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by arrangement with
the Office of Central Reference, CIA.
3. When an estimate is disseminated overseas, the overseas recipients may retain
it for a period not in excess of one year. At the end of this period, the estimate
should either be destroyed, returned to the forwarding agency, or permission should
be requested of the forwarding agency to retain it in accordance with IAC?D-69/2,
22 June 1953.
4. The title of this estimate when used separately from the text, should be classified:
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
DISTRIBUTION:
White House
National Security Council
Department of State
Department of Defense
Operations Coordinating Board
Atomic Energy Commission
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
This questionnaire is being circulated pursuant to USIB?M--4 in an effort to
obtain a clearer picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used.
. It is. requested that all users, of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
which the ,NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE distribution
channels.)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response -
NIE Number
Copy Number
- Position of the User:
Descriptive Title Office
My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one)
(a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) rese,arch
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one)
(a) general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to my attention
As a rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
? (b) read .NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(4) read NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
- (a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference to' it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(0 through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a) in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
?
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little -
(d) none
I expect that I will cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
(a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard estimates as useful and dependable (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first - months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it sdepends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
? central
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
This questionnaire is being circulated pursuant to USIB?M-34 in an effort to
obtain a clOzer.,picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used.
It is requested that all users of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
which the NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE distribution
channels.)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response
NIE Number
Copy Number
Position of the User ?
Descriptive Title Office
My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one)
(a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) research
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one)
(a) general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to my attention
As a rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
(b) read NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(d) read .NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
(a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference to it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(f) through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a)' in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing. a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little
(d) none
I expect that I will cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
(a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard estimates as useful and dependable (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it 'depends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
central
- Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
? This questionnaire is_being circulated pursuant to USIB-M-34 in an effort to
obtain a clearer picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used.
? It is requested that all users of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
which the NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE -distribution
channels.)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response
NIE Number
Copy Number
Position of the User ?
Descriptive
Title Office
, My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one)
? (a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) research
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one)
(a) general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to .my attention
As a rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
(b) read NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(d) read NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
(a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference to it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(f) through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a) in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little
(d) none
I expect that I will cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
(a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard estimates as useful and dependable (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it ,depends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
central
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
This questionnaire is being circulated pursuant to USIB-M-34 in an effort to
? obtain .a. clearer picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used. ?
? It is requested that all users of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
? which .the NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department? or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE distribution
channels.)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03 : CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response
NIE Number
Copy Number
Position of the User ?
Descriptive Title Office
My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one)
(a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) research
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one).
(a) -general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
?
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to my attention
As a rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
(b) read NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(d) read NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
(a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference to it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(f) through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a) in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little
(d) none
I expect that I will ,cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
(a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard- estimates as useful and. dependable: (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it sdepends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
central
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
? ???????,1,,, .???
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
This questionnaire is being circulated pursuant to USIB?M-34 in an effort to
obtain a clearer picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used.
? It is requested that all users of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill _
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
which the NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE distribution
channels:)
.if
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response
NIE Number
Copy Number.
Position of the User ?
Descriptive Title Office
My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one) .
(a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) research
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one)
(a) general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to my attention
Asa rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
(b) read NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(d) read NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
(a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference to it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(f) through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a) in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little
(d) none
I expect that I will .cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
? (a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard estimates as useful and dependable (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it ?depends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
central
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THE USER
This questionnaire is being circulated pursuant to USIB?M-34 in an effort to
obtain a clearer picture of the professional interests and responsibilities of NIE users
and the purposes for which NIEs are used.
It is requested that all users of the attached National Intelligence Estimate fill
in the following form and return it to the office or document control point from
which the NIE was received. (NOTE to Document Control Officers: (1) Completed
questionnaires should be forwarded through NIE distribution channels to central
control points which have been set up for each department or agency receiving NIEs;
(2) Extra questionnaire forms, as needed, can be obtained through NIE distribution
channels.)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Date of this response
NIE Number
Copy Number
Position of the User ?
Descriptive Title Office
My professional responsibilities are mainly in the field of (Check one)
(a) policy planning and coordination
(b) operations
(c) intelligence
(d) keeping my superior informed
(e) research
(f)
(Other: please specify)
My substantive responsibilities are (Check one)
(a) general in scope
(b) primarily concerned with matters involving
(indicate country, regional or
functional specialization)
I normally see, or am briefed on (Check one)
(a) all NIEs
(b) all NIEs bearing on my special responsibilities
(c) only NIEs specifically requested by me or brought to my attention
As a rule, I (Check one)
(a) rely primarily on briefings to keep myself informed on the content of NIEs
(b) read NIE Conclusions only
(c) read the entire NIE myself
(d) read NIEs primarily in order to brief a superior
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
I first learned of the present NIE (Check one)
(a) on receiving it
(b) through USIB Committee papers
(c) through reference to NIE files, the NIE index, or other reference service
(d) through reference-to it by a professional colleague
(e) through participation in its preparation
(f) through other means (specify)
I am using this estimate (Check one)
(a) in connection with actions on its subject now before my office
(b) for purposes of briefing a superior
(c) for background information
The value of this estimate for my purposes is (Check one)
(a) major
(b) moderate
(c) little
(d) none
I expect that I will cite, quote, or summarize this estimate (Check one)
(a) in papers prepared in my office
(b) in coordination of other papers and other discussions
(c) seldom, if ever
I expect that I will probably (Check one)
(a) not refer to this estimate again
(b) refer to it frequently in the future
(c) refer to it once or twice in the future
I regard estimates as useful and dependable (Check one)
(a) only at the time they are issued
(b) only for the first months or so after issuance
(c) until superseded
(d) there is no general rule; it depends on the particular estimate
This copy will be retained in personal files. (Circle one)
office
central
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3
a #01 EtZ
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEPAL, BHUTAN, AND SIKKIM'
THE PROBLEM
To estimate probable developments in Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim during the
next few years, including the relations of these states with India, the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, and the West.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim are stra-
tegically located on India's northern
frontier and are vulnerable to Chinese
Communist pressures. India views this
vulnerability as directly endangering its
own security. (Paras. 8, 23, 27, 34)
2. Nepal's first experiment in representa-
tive government began with the elections
of 1959. The moderate socialist Nepali
Congress party won a sweeping victory.
Its leaders, headed by Prime Minister
Koirala, seem to be working harmoniously
with King Mahendra, who retains exten-
sive powers under the new constitution.
These circumstances improve the pros-
pects for stable government over the next
few years. (Paras. 9713)
3. Nevertheless, Nepal faces formidable
internal problems. Differences between
Mahendra and the Nepali Congress gov-
ernment could emerge and disrupt their
present cooperation. Internal dissen-
1 This estimate is devoted primarily to the outlook
for Nepal; consideration of Bhutan and Sikkim is
limited almost entirely to likely developments in
their relations with India and China.
sions might in time weaken the Nepali
Congress. Conservative forces may be
able to exploit differences between King
and government. (Paras.-13-15, 17-20)
4. Local Communist subversive activities
are unlikely to pose a serious threat to the
government within the next few years,
though these capabilities will probably
grow with tightening Chinese Communist
control of Tibet and greater Bloc interest
in Nepal. (Para. 16)
5. In foreign affairs, Nepal will maintain
its neutralist policy. Being more fearful
of Communist China than of India, it will
continue to rely primarily on the latter
to preserve its independence, while seek-
ing not to antagonize Communist China.
At the same time, it will welcome financial
and moral support from the US. (Paras.
23-33)
6. The remoteness and backwardness of
Nepal make major economic progress un-
likely for years to come. However, with
continued outside aid, modest improve-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79R01012A014100030001-3