PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FEDERATION OF NIGERIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A019000010007-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 5, 2014
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: January 24, 1961
• Content Type: NIE

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NIE 64.2-61 ADVCON
24 January 1961
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
FEDERATION OF NIGERIA
NOTE: This is an advance copy of the conclusions of this estim'ate
as approved by the United States Intelligence Board. The'
complete text will be circulated within five days of this
issuance.
? Political outlook
? Economic prospects
? International orientation
Central Intelligence Agency
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Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff.
Concurred in by the
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
on 24 January 1961. Concurring were the Director of In-
telligence and Research, Department of State; the Assistant
Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the
Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department
of the Navy; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF;
the Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff; the Assistant to the
Secretary of Defense, Special Operations; and the Director of
the National Security Agency. The Atomic Energy Commission
Representative to the USIB and the Assistant Director, Fed-
eral Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being out-
side of their jurisdiction.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
24 January 1961
SUBJECT: NIE 64.2-61: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FEDERATION
OF NIGERIA
THE PROBLEM
To estimate probable developments in the Federation of
Nigeria over the next two years or so.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Nigeria, which achieved independence on 1-October 1960,
promises to develop into a moderate and influential African
state. Independence of this most populous African state came
without bitterness toward the UK, its former colonial ruler.
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Nigeria has responsible leadership, a substantial civil service
trained in Internal administration, and security forces able to
maintain domestic order. The general outloolt for stability and
internal cohesion appears favorable.
2. However, Nigeria's population is made up of a wide
diversity of ethnic groups, and each of its three regions is
controlled by a major tribal group and its attendant political
Party. The Federal government is now controlled by a coalition.
There are wide social, cUltilrell economic and political diver-
gencies between the regions and conflicting interests and aspir-
ations contribute to tensions within the federation As the
excitement of independence recedes, and as pressures for eco,
nomic and social progress and reform grow, strains will be put
on the federal system. The two southern regions, in particular,
will press for a stronger central government and more radical
solutions of internal problems.
3. Nigeria's economy is predominantly agricultural, and
its foreign exchange earnings come principally from the export
of agricultural products whose prices are subject to fluctua- -
tions beyond Nigerian control. Before independence Nigeria
had achieved a fair degree of economic development, and there
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and there are prospects for further progress. Domestic capital'
is, however, scarce and Nigeria will look to the UK and the
West for considerable assistance. Although the present leaders
are not anxious to turn to the Bloc for aid, it will be diffi-
cult for them to reject attractive offers which compete with or
supplement Western assistance.
LL In foreign affairs Nigeria will seek a position of
'-leadership in Africa. In doing so it will attempt to play a
moderating role between differing African factions but probably
will find itself most frequently aligned with the conservative
states and opposed to the radicalism of states like Ghana and
Guinea. On issues believed to involve colonialism, however,
Nigeria will almost always find itself in agreement with the
majority of Afro-Asian states. As Nigeria manifests a growing
sense of independence on international issues, British political
influence will decline. While the US now enjoys some prestige
among Nigerian leaders, US relations with Nigeria will be
plagued by the former's close identification with European
colonial powers, by Nigerian suspicions that US attitudes toward
Africa' are too heavily influenced by cold war considerations,
and by Nigerian sensitivity on racial issues.
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5. In accordance with its announced policy of nonalign-
ment, Nigeria will probably establish diplomatic relations with
the Soviet Union and some European satellites during the next
year or so. The diplomatic and economic presence .of Bloc coun-
tries within Nigeria will give them opportunities for increas-
ing their influence at the expense of the West. Nevertheless,
Western influence will be more affected by Western policies and
actions on specific African issues than by Bloc initiatives with-
in Nigeria.
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