THE PROSPECTS FOR TURKEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A023700010010-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2014
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: February 13, 1963
• Content Type: NIE

e'2
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? -SEC-RET
NI E 29.2-63 ADVCON
13 February 1963
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
THE PROSPECTS FOR TURKEY
? Political Situation and Outlook
? Economic Situation and Outlook
? Longer Term Outlook
? International Affairs
UNION OF
SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
SAUDI
ARABIA
NOTE: This is an advance copy of the conclusions of this estimate
as approved by the United States Intelligence Board. The com-
plete text will be circulated within five days of this issuance.
Central Intelligence Agency
?SECRET?
NO FOREIGN DISSEM
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Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and NSA.
Concurred in by the
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
on 13 February 1963. Concurring were the Director of
Intelligence and Research, Department of State; The Direc-
tor, Defense Intelligence Agency; the Assistant Chief of Staff
for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Assistant Chief
of Naval Operations (Intelligence), Department of the Navy;
the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF; the Director
for Intelligence, Joint Staff; and the Director of the National
Security Agency. The Atomic Energy Commission Repre-
sentative to the USIB and the Assistant Director, Federal
Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside
of their jurisdiction.
CLASSIFICATION OF TITLE IS OFFICIAL USE ONLY
WHEN USED SEPARATELY
GROUP 1
EXCLUDED FROM AUTOMATIC DOWNGRADING
AND DECLASSIFICATION
3 20 26 3-63
WARNING
This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY,
13 February 1963
SUBJECT: NIE 29.2-63: THE PROSPECTS FOR TURKEY
CONCLUSIONS
A. We believe that Turkey's present coalition government under
Prime Minister Inonu will hold together for another year or so, and
perhaps until the elections due by late 1965. The disappearance of
the 78-year-old Inonu would significantly lessen these chances. The
opposition Justice Party, which draws its support mainly from the
ranks of Menderes' former Democratic Party, is steadily gaining popu-
lar support and has a good chance to win a plurality if not an outright
majority in the next parliament. The military are not convinced that
parliamentary government can solve Turkey's problems, but are well
aware of the wide popular opposition to their resumption of power.
The senior officers are cooperating with the Inonu government, but even
in the event of a Justice Party victory they probably will be hesitant
to intervene. (Paras. 11-13)
B. Over the longer term the delicate balance of political and
military forces is likely to be threatened by growing discontent with
?S -B -C -E -T
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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S-E -C-R.-E -T
the pace of Turkey's economic and social development. This dissatis-
faction has led to greater respectability for various socialist and
authoritarian ideas. The peasants, on the other hand remain deeply
conservative and will oppose any attempt to deny them the feeling of
political influence they possessed under Menderes. The growing gap be-
tween urban and rural population poses a basic political problem.
These trends raise the question whether Turkey will be able to continue
its efforts toward modernization under a democratic system, or whether
a more radical revolution is likely. Future developments will depend
heavily on the extent of Turkey's economic progress and on the quality
of leaders that Turkey develops over the coming decade. (Paras. 21-23)
C. Turkey will have considerable difficulty in raising the
resources for its ambitious Five-Year Plan which aims at a seven percent
annual growth in GNP. Both internal revenue and foreign aid are likely
to fall short of the amount needed to carry out all the investments
called for in the first year of the plan. An annual growth rate of four
to five percent is probably the best that can be achieved, and in view
of Turkey's rapid population growth only slow increases in living stand-
ards are likely. (Paras. 17-20)
D. Turkey will continue to regard the USSR as its major enemy and
the US and NATO as the only feasible sources of protection against the
S -E -C -R-E -T
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Soviet Bloc. We believe awareness of the Soviet threat and of the basic
community of interests between Turkey and the US will insure continuance
of close Turkish-US relations including use of present base facilities.
Turkey's present effort to expand economic ties with Western Europe is
likely to result eventually in some form of Turkish adherence to the
European Economic Community, although the terms may not be as favorable
as the Turks now hope. In the Middle East, Turkey will probably continue
to be concerned primarily with preventing the spread of Communist and
Nasserist influence and with protecting the Turkish community in Cyprus.
(Paras. 24-28)
3
S -E -C -R -E -T
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